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The Weather Thread 2022


sedra

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4 minutes ago, Xenta101 said:

For those who have been through this before, how accurate have the calls that have been made now (ie 2 weeks out from the festival) been in previous years? Surely a lot of time for things to change (perhaps even drastically)?

There's at least eight more rolls of the dice yet my friend

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3 minutes ago, Xenta101 said:

For those who have been through this before, how accurate have the calls that have been made now (ie 2 weeks out from the festival) been in previous years? Surely a lot of time for things to change (perhaps even drastically)?

almost always the rough outlook is correct - it's just the particularities of rain etc. that are pretty much unknown at this point. But if the outlook suggests a pattern of high moving to low pressure over the next two weeks, there's a pretty high chance that will happen.

2019 was a freak anomaly 

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10 minutes ago, Xenta101 said:

For those who have been through this before, how accurate have the calls that have been made now (ie 2 weeks out from the festival) been in previous years? Surely a lot of time for things to change (perhaps even drastically)?

Every year is the same. This thread consists of 2 kinds of people:

1. The Nal

2. Everyone arguing with The Nal.

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7 minutes ago, Xenta101 said:

For those who have been through this before, how accurate have the calls that have been made now (ie 2 weeks out from the festival) been in previous years? Surely a lot of time for things to change (perhaps even drastically)?

Depends. Some years have shown relatively settled predictions this far out (2007 an obvious one, also 2016 I think) and haven't changed much, but for most years there's plenty of time to change. What we want to avoid is consensus developing over next few days around a low sitting for the whole week. 

But 2019 looked terrible at this point and was lovely, and 2015 looked like it was going to be pretty great the week before until we got hit by a couple of random downpours. 

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8 minutes ago, Xenta101 said:

For those who have been through this before, how accurate have the calls that have been made now (ie 2 weeks out from the festival) been in previous years? Surely a lot of time for things to change (perhaps even drastically)?

Accurate, hah hah hah 😂

Sorry. Serious answer, yes it can all absolutely change. Often many times within 24 hours, let alone day to day. 

The forecasts now ~2 weeks out are a little more statistically reliable than the absolute crystal ball territory we were in earlier on, but it’s still highly uncertain. 

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