The Weather Thread 2022

[Alvoram]

2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

OK Ill start.

I have no idea what that means.

Neither do those models... All over the place. 

Looks like some confidence in 'some' rain on the 21st though... 

[stopwn1981]

Is the left hand axis in feet?

[lebenski]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

discuss

OK.  It seems there is a strong chance of anything between 0 and 9mm rain for each day between 15th June and Glastonbury Sunday.

Edited June 10, 2022 by lebenski

[The Nal]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

it's the GEFS precipitation ensembles for Somerset. Obviously.

Looks like a few childish squiggles on a crude graph

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, lebenski said:

OK.  It seems there is a strong chance of anything between 0 and 9mm rain for each day between now and Glastonbury Sunday.

well, no actually. There is a strong chance of hardly any rain until 15th...and then the deluge starts...

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Looks like a few childish squiggles on a crude graph

NO IT DOESN'T!

[steviewevie]

and here is a temperature one.

[steviewevie]

and the all important 850hpa temperature one.

[Alvoram]

All those graphs prove is what we've always known...

Beyond 5 days is absolute tosh...

The tight grouping of the data lines up to the 15th, and the way they go crazy after that is all the evidence you need. 

[lebenski]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and the all important 850hpa temperature one.

LETS GET SQUIGGLYYYYY

[ErnestWorthing]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and the all important 850hpa temperature one.

It's going to be just above freezing?! I have no idea what any of this means

[The Nal]

Just now, ErnestWorthing said:

It's going to be just above freezing?! I have no idea what any of this means

Yeah the blue line is cold (I guess) so that means its going to be under 5c the whole time. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

All those graphs prove is what we've always known...

Beyond 5 days is absolute tosh...

The tight grouping of the data lines up to the 15th, and the way they go crazy after that is all the evidence you need. 

yes...but you can see the trend...settled to hot to unsettled (the unsettled bit is the big unknown...pilton may get loads of rain or none, or something inbetween).

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, ErnestWorthing said:

It's going to be just above freezing?! I have no idea what any of this means

The 850hPa boundary is approximately 1500m above sea level. This means there is no diurnal variation (day to night change due to the surface warming and then cooling) making it very useful to identify air masses. In winter 850hPa temperatures below -5C are often be cold enough for snow.

(just off the top of my head)

[Avalon_Fields]

11 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Is the left hand axis in feet?

Fathoms.

[t0paz]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

The 850hPa boundary is approximately 1500m above sea level. This means there is no diurnal variation (day to night change due to the surface warming and then cooling) making it very useful to identify air masses. In winter 850hPa temperatures below -5C are often be cold enough for snow.

(just off the top of my head)

Or, from a different site

In the summer months temperatures at ground level are less dependent on the 850hPa air mass and more dependent on the stronger sun. Thus in summer even if  850hPa temperatures aren't very high it can still be warm..

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and here is a temperature one.

That shows that the earth is predicted to keep spinning.

[lebenski]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The 850hPa boundary is approximately 1500m above sea level. This means there is no diurnal variation (day to night change due to the surface warming and then cooling) making it very useful to identify air masses. In winter 850hPa temperatures below -5C are often be cold enough for snow.

(just off the top of my head)

great googling!

[Avalon_Fields]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That shows that the earth is predicted to keep spinning.

It’s my head that’s spinning….

[Tranquility of Solitude]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The 850hPa boundary is approximately 1500m above sea level. This means there is no diurnal variation (day to night change due to the surface warming and then cooling) making it very useful to identify air masses. In winter 850hPa temperatures below -5C are often be cold enough for snow.

(just off the top of my head)

Not wellies or boots... crampons then?

[gigpusher]

I think it suggests that we will definitely have weather and we should all prepare for weather just like we do for every festival. Next week we'll have a bit more information about what type of weather to expect but at this stage I suggest be prepared for the fact there will definitely be weather. 

[The Nal]

[steviewevie]

sea level pressure one is very interesting, I think you'll agree...

[clarkete]

4 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

It’s my head that’s spinning….

One man struggle while another relaxes

[The Nal]

Lot of info here to process