Stage Predictions 2022: For real this time

[sisco]

His sub set looked like one big happy party.  I’d suggest he’d do a good job.  Liked his podcast too taking about Glastonbury, came across really well (May of been someone else’s). 
 

 

[Hugh Jass]

1 minute ago, Quark said:

 

But I know I don't have a clue, so when they do end up on top I'll nod, smile, and bugger off to watch something that's more to my taste!

I’d be happy if she did Bad Guy first again, then I could happily wander off.

[Matt42]

Without being too contradictory, does anyone think that the market is slowly moving away from the one man and his guitar headliner?

Lewis Capaldi has been big but I’m not too sure his trajectory is continuing upwards. I don’t think one man and his guitar stuff is topping the charts at the moment like it was a few years ago.

Ed Sheeran headlined at the perfect time, when the market was dying for artists just like him. But did you see the numbers for Ed’s las collaboration album? Didn’t sell anywhere near as much as his last.

George Ezra had a big 2019 but I’m not counting him out from going down a Paolo Nutini direction, in that we judge his success from a previous “huge” era, and he somewhat fizzles out.

The problem with acts like Ezra is there is always some fresher younger lad on the next boat which will eclipse you.

[fred quimby]

31 minutes ago, sameimpala said:

George will do a lovely singalong headline set in 2023 with nice visuals and a big brass band of some kind. He'll have about 8 top 10 hits by then and will surprise everyone by how good he was. 

He will also be on the September lineup I reckon

[Hugh Jass]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Without being too contradictory, does anyone think that the market is slowly moving away from the one man and his guitar headliner?

Lewis Capaldi has been big but I’m not too sure his trajectory is continuing upwards. I don’t think one man and his guitar stuff is topping the charts at the moment like it was a few years ago.

Ed Sheeran headlined at the perfect time, when the market was dying for artists just like him. But did you see the numbers for Ed’s las collaboration album? Didn’t sell anywhere near as much as his last.

George Ezra had a big 2019 but I’m not counting him out from going down a Paolo Nutini direction, in that we judge his success from a previous “huge” era, and he somewhat fizzles out.

The problem with acts like Ezra is there is always some fresher younger lad on the next boat which will eclipse you.

I disagree. Whilst there has been a slew of earnest young men in recent years - RagnBone Man, Hozier, Tom Walker, James Bay, etc they've all just had one song that went massive before fizzling out. Ezra has pushed through that "one hit" phase and is out the other side, just like Sheeran who now sells out stadia.

The reason Sheeran's last album didn't do as well is because it wasn't really marketed as a true Sheeran album. He sells by the boatline to people who only buy a couple of CDs a year from Tescos whilst doing their weekly shop (Ezra is hitting this market too). The collab album was much more low key in terms of released and wasn't pushed too hard in terms of marketing, I guarantee the next "true" album (ie with a mathematical symbol) will sell by the absolute truckload.

[incident]

19 minutes ago, sameimpala said:

He's bigger hit-wise than the Mumfords were when they headlined. I think he's a safe bet for a 'new' headliner and they can make a big deal out of him working his way up through bbc introducing etc. 

Think that probably depends how you measure it.

At the time they played, Mumfords had at least 2 songs that just about every crap Jukebox band in the country was doing - while obviously those bands haven't had the chance to do so, I'm not convinced they'd be playing any George Ezra tracks right now.

[sameimpala]

[thewayiam]

3 hours ago, dentalplan said:

Yeah, Boardmasters and All Points East headline sets should qualify her for the task of headlining the Other Stage.

They wanted to try book women headlining each stage, as @kingcrawler said earlier. Jorja coming off the back of those headline sets makes more sense than Wolf Alice coming off the back of playing before Yungblud this summer.

Higher end of the Pyramid is already pretty mobbed with names whereas we’re not expecting two of the Other headliners to return.

I get that but I also think APE have had stronger lineups than this year comfortably. I can still see a 3rd Pyramid/Other sub though as C+TQ were still going to do that sub slot. And Foals and Gorillaz would. But Jamie XX and London Grammar would be lucky imo to sub Other. London Grammar for me are like your JP headliner along with properly Jamie XX 

18 minutes ago, sameimpala said:

He's bigger hit-wise than the Mumfords were when they headlined. I think he's a safe bet for a 'new' headliner and they can make a big deal out of him working his way up through bbc introducing etc. 

Not a chance. 

[Hugh Jass]

11 minutes ago, incident said:

Think that probably depends how you measure it.

At the time they played, Mumfords had at least 2 songs that just about every crap Jukebox band in the country was doing - while obviously those bands haven't had the chance to do so, I'm not convinced they'd be playing any George Ezra tracks right now.

Budapest and Paradise were both everywhere.

[Matt42]

23 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

I disagree. Whilst there has been a slew of earnest young men in recent years - RagnBone Man, Hozier, Tom Walker, James Bay, etc they've all just had one song that went massive before fizzling out. Ezra has pushed through that "one hit" phase and is out the other side, just like Sheeran who now sells out stadia.

The reason Sheeran's last album didn't do as well is because it wasn't really marketed as a true Sheeran album. He sells by the boatline to people who only buy a couple of CDs a year from Tescos whilst doing their weekly shop (Ezra is hitting this market too). The collab album was much more low key in terms of released and wasn't pushed too hard in terms of marketing, I guarantee the next "true" album (ie with a mathematical symbol) will sell by the absolute truckload.

Yeah you could be right. We shall see!

Maybe I’m out of touch but I think the situation with Ezra is ... they don’t HAVE to book him to headline. He would probably accept a sub / other stage headline if they asked nicely.

Its different to stormzy where they were catching a wave. I feel like being a friend of the festival can both make you more likely to headline, but also more likely to never headline. Liam only accepts headline gigs but isn’t a Glasto headliner. I can’t see George Ezra turning down a slot because it isn’t at the top of the pyramid.

[Mellotr0n]

1 hour ago, Quark said:

Oh I get that. By all the agreed counts she's up there. But I personally can't get my head around it. And I know I'm wrong 😄

The thing I struggle with most (and I'd put Jorja Smith in the same category tbh) is that's not a style of music I can imagine headlining.  All a bit subdued y'know? Bad Guy aside, which is a banger.

But I know I don't have a clue, so when they do end up on top I'll nod, smile, and bugger off to watch something that's more to my taste!

Fair enough.

I feel like Bad Guy is gonna end up as her "Creep". Genuinely one of my least favourite of her 25-30 songs.

Throwaway catchy "fun" song but she's done far better, more interesting work IMO (and just like Radiohead with Creep, she and her brother think so too!)

Edited May 24, 2021 by Mellotr0n

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

Fair enough.

I feel like Bad Guy is gonna end up as her "Creep". Genuinely one of my least favourite of her 25-30 songs.

Throwaway catchy "fun" song but she's done far better, more interesting work IMO (and just like Radiohead with Creep, she and her brother think so too!)

Bad Guy is a great festival banger but it’s nowhere near the top of my favourite Billie songs list.

I think this is a case of people only listening to Bad Guy, not checking out her wider work, and forming an opinion on her 😛 

Imagine if people just listened to Shake it Off by Taylor and left it at that?

[Quark]

3 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

Fair enough.

I feel like Bad Guy is gonna end up as her "Creep". Genuinely one of my least favourite of her 25-30 songs.

Throwaway catchy "fun" song but she's done far better, more interesting work IMO (and just like Radiohead with Creep, she and her brother think so too!)

I can see she's got more interesting stuff, but that was the only one I really remember having any weight to it live in '19. 

Horses for courses though innit. Just not my cuppa, but can still get why she'd headline at some point.

[Quark]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Bad Guy is a great festival banger but it’s nowhere near the top of my favourite Billie songs list.

I think this is a case of people only listening to Bad Guy, not checking out her wider work, and forming an opinion on her 😛 

Imagine if people just listened to Shake it Off by Taylor and left it at that?

I've given the album a few spins, tried to get into it but just not for me.  But yeah, Bad Guy's certainly "that" track.

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, Quark said:

I've given the album a few spins, tried to get into it but just not for me.  But yeah, Bad Guy's certainly "that" track.

A selection of my favourites

Therefore I Am, ilomilo, when the party’s over, Idontwanttobeyouanymore, my boy, bellyache, COPYCAT, watch, my strange addiction.

some deeper cuts but very good tracks imo 

[jimmillen]

1 hour ago, Hugh Jass said:

I disagree. Whilst there has been a slew of earnest young men in recent years - RagnBone Man, Hozier, Tom Walker, James Bay, etc they've all just had one song that went massive before fizzling out. Ezra has pushed through that "one hit" phase and is out the other side, just like Sheeran who now sells out stadia.

Ummm, I kind of agree that Ezra defo has made enough impact to be around for the long haul.

But I really don’t get the comparison with Sheeran. By the time Sheeran headlined in 2017 he’d had his own Wembley stadium gigs, toured heavily in stadiums supporting Taylor, had massive US & global success, multiple Brit & Grammy nominations & awards…

My perception at least is that he’d proved himself as a headline performer to an extent that Ezra really hasn’t?

Like I said, this could all change if Ezra has a massive third album. 

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be mad at all if he did headline. It would be a brave choice by the festival and could very well work to catapult him to the next level of superstardom. But I can’t see how he’s any kind of obvious choice to headline…

*shrugs* This is all so subjective anyway isn’t it, ideal topic for endless forum discussion 😂

[Matt42]

George will never have an album or era as big as Sheeran’s peak. So that should be scrubbed out already. 
 

Ezra hasn’t really got an international audience. So the future of his ‘headline status’ career depends on his UK success. The interesting point will be how many of his fans have moved on to Lewis Capaldi.

[henry bear]

2 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

Lewis Capaldi who is also fucking gigantic? And no top 10 singles since 2018? wtf haha that is a silly argument. He is clearly huge and could clearly headline.

On here there is often a consensus regarding an act that gains a momentum, irrespective of how likely it is. One or two people may roll with it and it goes from there. And should you deviate from that consensus you’ll get shouted down by the usual suspects. 

Regarding Ezra, yes he could headline, but so could a few other similar acts that have had similar success - Capaldi, Rag n Bone Man etc, but you rarely see them mentioned as likely headliners. The latter had a huge crowd in 2017, and probably would now. His album’s just gone to number  1. Don’t get me wrong, I hope not though.

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, henry bear said:

On here there is often a consensus regarding an act that gains a momentum, irrespective of how likely it is. One or two people may roll with it and it goes from there. And should you deviate from that consensus you’ll get shouted down by the usual suspects. 

Regarding Ezra, yes he could headline, but so could a few other similar acts that have had similar success - Capaldi, Rag n Bone Man etc, but you rarely see them mentioned as likely headliners. The latter had a huge crowd in 2017, and probably would now. His album’s just gone to number  1. Don’t get me wrong, I hope not though.

Rag'n'Bone Man at Delamere Forest

Friday 17 June 2022 - 7pm to 10.30pm

Delamere Forest, Cheshire

Buy ticketsfor Rag'n'Bone Man at Delamere Forest on Friday 17 June 2022

 

luckily mr rag is still booking small shows. No fear of becoming a headliner here.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Matt42

[FloorFiller]

Obviously the target audience for acts like Ezra are pretty fickle and all it takes is one duffer to send you off course, but I don’t see that happening to him just yet. I imagine he’s got a hit-maker team behind him to assure he has the goods.

That said, I’m still dubious to him headlining, although maybe less so than I was earlier. Maybe I’m stuck in a certain mind frame about Glastonbury not usually booking lads with guitars to headline, but... other than Sheeran - THE lad with THE guitar - it isn’t something they’ve ventured in to at all, because, well, it makes a bit of a shit headliner. Maybe George’s large backing band will be his saving grace in this respect, but he still seems like a perfect Glastonbury sub type act to me rather than being the main attraction.

Maybe I’ll completely 180 on that when he releases new material that storms the charts and is inevitably and frustratingly inescapable as it all ends up on every TV advert ever. 

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

Obviously the target audience for acts like Ezra are pretty fickle and all it takes is one duffer to send you off course, but I don’t see that happening to him just yet. I imagine he’s got a hit-maker team behind him to assure he has the goods.

That said, I’m still dubious to him headlining, although maybe less so than I was earlier. Maybe I’m stuck in a certain mind frame about Glastonbury not usually booking lads with guitars to headline, but... other than Sheeran - THE lad with THE guitar - it isn’t something they’ve ventured in to at all, because, well, it makes a bit of a shit headliner. Maybe George’s large backing band will be his saving grace in this respect, but he still seems like a perfect Glastonbury sub type act to me rather than being the main attraction.

Maybe I’ll completely 180 on that when he releases new material that storms the charts and is inevitably and frustratingly inescapable as it all ends up on every TV advert ever. 

I think the reason why, is these one man and his guitar acts very rarely become headline or nothing artists. I highly doubt Ezra will ever be playing stadiums, doubt capaldi will either. Ed was a total anomaly in that he reached a stage in his career where he was *unquestionably* the biggest artist on the lineup anywhere he went. He also became the top streamed artist on Spotify. Taylor, Beyoncé, literally all the big stars were begging for a feature. To think he was anything other than a headliner was laughable.

I don’t think Ezra will ever reach these heights. Ed was playing in a totally different lane to him. He’s floating this middle space where he hasn’t quite broken out of being a very popular support act who has a few songs on the radio. Ed was the main event.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Matt42

[Hugh Jass]

42 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Ummm, I kind of agree that Ezra defo has made enough impact to be around for the long haul.

But I really don’t get the comparison with Sheeran. By the time Sheeran headlined in 2017 he’d had his own Wembley stadium gigs, toured heavily in stadiums supporting Taylor, had massive US & global success, multiple Brit & Grammy nominations & awards…

My perception at least is that he’d proved himself as a headline performer to an extent that Ezra really hasn’t?

Like I said, this could all change if Ezra has a massive third album. 

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be mad at all if he did headline. It would be a brave choice by the festival and could very well work to catapult him to the next level of superstardom. But I can’t see how he’s any kind of obvious choice to headline…

*shrugs* This is all so subjective anyway isn’t it, ideal topic for endless forum discussion 😂

If I’m not mistaken he was down to headline IOW before COVID banjaxed it all, which could easily have cemented his credentials as a festival headliner.

Of course it’s all subjective, but I just don’t see, on the evidence available, how he doesn’t headline on the next album.

(Funniest part of this debate is that I’m arguing strongly for him despite thinking his music is utter garbage)

[thewayiam]

2 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

If I’m not mistaken he was down to headline IOW before COVID banjaxed it all, which could easily have cemented his credentials as a festival headliner.

Of course it’s all subjective, but I just don’t see, on the evidence available, how he doesn’t headline on the next album.

(Funniest part of this debate is that I’m arguing strongly for him despite thinking his music is utter garbage)

The IOW booking was in a weak year for IOW that's for sure.

[Hugh Jass]

33 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

The interesting point will be how many of his fans have moved on to Lewis Capaldi.

You do realise that people can like more than one artist at a time? Right?

[Hugh Jass]

Just now, thewayiam said:

The IOW booking was in a weak year for IOW that's for sure.

Still booked to headline though.