Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[jparx]

39 minutes ago, Andy0808 v5 said:

Get them first on again, and anyone in the crowd should be alright for the weekend...

It would be a cheesey novelty, but i'd be ALL for them opening the Pyramid for the first festival back.

[The Nal]

158 days

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

yeah, could be - although I don't think it'll be a big deal as hopefully widespread covid won't be a thing by then

Yeah agree, especially for anyone involved with one of the bigger promoters they'll be arranging and sorting testing and probably vaccine for their artists.

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

52 minutes ago, The Nal said:

158 days

Seems legit

[DeanoL]

15 hours ago, Radiochicken said:

Don’t forget all those millions need their second shots within 12 weeks

Yeah this a big sticking point. Numbers might continue to go up until the end of March, but then they're going to fall off dramatically as all those people already done need doing again. So unless capacity doubles, the number of people getting their first jab will fall.

13 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Ask yourself how many of the acts you actually see at Glastonbury? I probably see 3-4 a day in reality. All of us are probably lucky to see 1% of the total lineup. It won’t be an issue if it’s mainly U.K. acts. 

Either we have very different festivals (which is quite possible) or you're making the mistake of only counting the main stages, and not counting acts you just nip in and watch in a pub, or the comedy tent, or walkabouts at Bella's field, or in the circus, or at the SE corner... all of which drawn on international as well as local talent.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah this a big sticking point. Numbers might continue to go up until the end of March, but then they're going to fall off dramatically as all those people already done need doing again. So unless capacity doubles, the number of people getting their first jab will fall.

In theory, we will have the J and J single shot as well, which would mitigate this. 

[Leyrulion]

54 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah this a big sticking point. Numbers might continue to go up until the end of March, but then they're going to fall off dramatically as all those people already done need doing again. So unless capacity doubles, the number of people getting their first jab will fall.

The rate will slow if resources stay the same. However the protection gained by a 2nd dose is less than the difference between no vaccine and one dose. 

If all the over 50s and vulnerable had 1 dose by mid march that's the lion's share of hospitalisations.  We can almost afford for the vaccination rate to slow as the impact from then onwards will be less then just giving those people one dose.

Topping up the priority groups to 2 doses and giving everyone else a 1st dose is probably makes less of an impact on figures, and then decisions for the fest, than the first dose.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah this a big sticking point. Numbers might continue to go up until the end of March, but then they're going to fall off dramatically as all those people already done need doing again. So unless capacity doubles, the number of people getting their first jab will fall.

Either we have very different festivals (which is quite possible) or you're making the mistake of only counting the main stages, and not counting acts you just nip in and watch in a pub, or the comedy tent, or walkabouts at Bella's field, or in the circus, or at the SE corner... all of which drawn on international as well as local talent.

Yes and no, the main stage acts are more likely to be the ones I have specifically chosen to see, and those are the ones I tend to see 3/4 of every day. I mentioned clashes, right off the bat in 2019 I had a horrible headliner clash between Tame Impala and Stormzy, I choose Stormzy as I’d seen TI many times before. Saturday, granted I watched the Killers, but I actually wanted to watch the Chemical brothers but my group overall wanted to see the Killers. Sunday we watched the Streets who were up against the Cure, two British bands.

So looking at just the headliners from 2019 the acts I actually saw could very easily have been all British anyway, if it wasn’t for the Killers who were not actually my first choice. This was obviously a completely unconscious choice and if the Killers hadn’t headlined my festival would’ve been completely unaffected, I would’ve seen the chems and had a blast and been completely oblivious to the fact I hadn’t seen one international headliner.

Obviously everyone’s festival is different, but the smaller stage stuff you mention, for me is more a question of stumbling across stuff I like the sound of. If I like it I’m not going to care or know if they’re British or International.

Don't get me wrong, obviously I’d prefer all acts to be there, but there are just so many acts that I reckon you could look at the 2019 lineup and easily choose an all British lineup to watch and still be extremely happy.

In fact that could be an idea for a thread.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[swede]

3 hours ago, The Nal said:

158 days

Sorry to say this but we may not be able to have half a dozen friends in our house for the next few months so no way will we see scenes like that this summer, to get from where we are now to that in 158 days seems impossible.........2022 will be a belter of a festival season though. 

[The Nal]

4 minutes ago, swede said:

Sorry to say this but we may not be able to have half a dozen friends in our house for the next few months so no way will we see scenes like that this summer, to get from where we are now to that in 158 days seems impossible.........2022 will be a belter of a festival season though. 

Jeeeeez, always so negative.

[kalifire]

3 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

Even for the 2022 festival I think testing of international arrivals will be a thing. 

Don't you dare...

International travel will be available again in the second half of this year once the policy on showing you've been vaccinated before flying is set up properly. By next June, unless there's some new variant that doesn't respond to the existing vaccinations, it'll be Glastonbury as normal.

[swede]

10 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Jeeeeez, always so negative.

Realistic buddy, government have said there will be a gradual easing of restrictions, pubs arent expected to open till May Day bank holiday, that photo right there is no restrictions at all. 

I'm aiming for being able to have people round to my house for my birthday in June, thats where Im at in terms of expectations for this year. 

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by swede

[aj6658]

I was so optimistic on the announcement of the vaccine I felt like 2021 will go ahead but I put the chance of it happening this year is non-existent. 

you only have to look at the "When will this shit end" thread and see the predictions people were making at the beginning to see we are trying to bend reality. I get it and I would love nothing more than to be on the farm this year but for this to go ahead we need zero restrictions. No face masks, No distancing. 

I can see summer as being similar to last summer. light restrictions, small groups. Pictures like below are what Glastonbury need to be like. 

You only have to 

 

[Leyrulion]

21 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Don't you dare...

International travel will be available again in the second half of this year once the policy on showing you've been vaccinated before flying is set up properly. By next June, unless there's some new variant that doesn't respond to the existing vaccinations, it'll be Glastonbury as normal.

Ok vaccine or testing, it'll become a requirement like a yellow fever certificate where that's endemic. 

But by then getting a test 3 days before departure will be easy to do so I don't think it will be a problem for you. 

Even generous projections don't have the rest of the world vaccinated until well into 2022. I don't see travel being "back to normal" like December 2019 with no requirements at all until a lot later. By 2022 travel will be seamless but there will be another step you have to do to go. 

Like how we all decant our liquids now or apply for visas, it's just another thing you have to do, but it doesn't stop you traveling.

 

[kalifire]

3 hours ago, The Nal said:

158 days

Ahh, seeing that picture reminds me of the excitement of the build, which I'll really miss (again) this year. Watching random trucks arriving, offloading then disappearing again, piles of woodchip, the long drops going up, the ribbon tower and Glasto sign, the Arcadia build, the Pyramid's dress, the fence... honestly, all that is in some ways as exciting as the festival itself.

[bamber]

2 hours ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Seems legit

Ha, you make a fine point.

What crowd is that? 2000 Willie Nelson?

[bamber]

If it was, I was there.

I so much want to be there again.

 

[bamber]

Crowd way to small at Willie, so who?

 

[fred quimby]

Kylie

[ShakeyCrash]

Still unlikely, but more likely with each passing day. 

On the plus side cases are coming down (in Wales significantly so), vaccines are ramping up, work places\restaurants are already Covid safe because of the first wave, average temperatures will gradually creep up (ventilation is so important to infection rates it seems), more vaccines are on their way, reports that they are looking to vaccinate over 50s by March and early indications are that at least the pfizer vaccine stops a good proportion of people being infectious (50 to 60% after a few days of 1st dose and this could increase as days progress).

On the minus is that June is so close, and commitments need to be made now, the virus is a prick and keeps mutating, the cases are so high now it will take a while to bring it back down across the UK, snow, the government's ability to mess things up, a global bottleneck on something vaccine related, the government is not assisting with Covid insurance and is unlikely to.

By June, I think Glastonbury could have happened BUT won't.  The only thing that could change this is if the government assisted with Covid insurance before Glastonbury need to make a decision (maybe 1-3 weeks).  The only way they would do this is if they were confident of hitting the vaccine targets and that the vaccine works as anticipated (e.g. basically stops anyone who gets it going to hospital). 

Either way, I really am confident this summer will be significantly better than the last.  

[The Nal]

 

8 minutes ago, bamber said:

Crowd way to small at Willie, so who?

 

Paul Simon 2011

[Leyrulion]

9 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

Kylie

Not Kylie, they changed the sound towers to 2 smaller tents instead of 1 big one with a screen behind it in 2019.

[bamber]

2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

 

Paul Simon 2011

Thank you. That is a lot of people. Right now, a figuratively unimaginable number of people.

I always post a vid if I can.

Fine tune!

 

[bamber]

And yes, I was there.

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

20 minutes ago, ShakeyCrash said:

Still unlikely, but more likely with each passing day. 

On the plus side cases are coming down (in Wales significantly so), vaccines are ramping up, work places\restaurants are already Covid safe because of the first wave, average temperatures will gradually creep up (ventilation is so important to infection rates it seems), more vaccines are on their way, reports that they are looking to vaccinate over 50s by March and early indications are that at least the pfizer vaccine stops a good proportion of people being infectious (50 to 60% after a few days of 1st dose and this could increase as days progress).

On the minus is that June is so close, and commitments need to be made now, the virus is a prick and keeps mutating, the cases are so high now it will take a while to bring it back down across the UK, snow, the government's ability to mess things up, a global bottleneck on something vaccine related, the government is not assisting with Covid insurance and is unlikely to.

By June, I think Glastonbury could have happened BUT won't.  The only thing that could change this is if the government assisted with Covid insurance before Glastonbury need to make a decision (maybe 1-3 weeks).  The only way they would do this is if they were confident of hitting the vaccine targets and that the vaccine works as anticipated (e.g. basically stops anyone who gets it going to hospital). 

Either way, I really am confident this summer will be significantly better than the last.  

Great post. Positivity with a dose of realism.

I wonder how much the insurance payout would be on a cancelled Glastonbury? I'd imagine it increases the closer to June it gets? Either way, a serious wedge.