Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[Ryan1984]

What did Spaffer say - 2 February for a sunset on the tiers? He had a slip of the tongue and said week ending 2 Feb rather than the day in parliament and one of those evil backbenchers was aghast/shouting at him before he corrected himself. If they’re that angry over a matter of days, they’re certainly not going to want restrictions into the spring and beyond.

I still think things (cinemas, gigs, theatre - albeit with limited capsules to start) will open at Easter with the release of Bond and a whole ‘Britain bounces back’ campaign.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

What did Spaffer say - 2 February for a sunset on the tiers?

it'll be a revote on the same tier system. It'll go through without issue.

He'll set a new revote date - or expiry date - then.

As soon as there's no risk of health care overload there won't be restrictions on trading (including pubs).

The mask rules will continue for a while after that I reckon, and perhaps maximum sizes for gatherings - but that size limit is going to be increased as quickly as they feel safe to do it (cos the horsey types are well in with Spaffer and co).

[Ryan1984]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

it'll be a revote on the same tier system. It'll go through without issue.

He'll set a new revote date - or expiry date - then.

As soon as there's no risk of health care overload there won't be restrictions on trading (including pubs).

The mask rules will continue for a while after that I reckon, and perhaps maximum sizes for gatherings - but that size limit is going to be increased as quickly as they feel safe to do it (cos the horsey types are well in with Spaffer and co).

Do you reckon they’ll try and get Cheltenham going (mid-March?)

[eFestivals]

Just now, Ryan1984 said:

Do you reckon they’ll try and get Cheltenham going (mid-March?)

It's a go-er already - but with a limit of 2,000.

I think it's very likely that limit will be at least 10,000 by mid-March, cos the govt is going to try and push that limit upwards as fast as it can.

[Matt42]

I’m now wondering whether the festival can go ahead, but there might be an issue with international talent being able to play. Especially from some countries where vaccination will take place later on.

Surely the rich and famous will buy a vaccine if they need to? I can’t quite workout what the procedure will be.

[Ryan1984]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I’m now wondering whether the festival can go ahead, but there might be an issue with international talent being able to play. Especially from some countries where vaccination will take place later on.

Surely the rich and famous will buy a vaccine if they need to? I can’t quite workout what the procedure will be.

That ‘high-value’ (awful term) travel passengers not having to quarantine ruling should sort that?

If not, get ready for Glastonbury Brextival...

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I’m now wondering whether the festival can go ahead, but there might be an issue with international talent being able to play. Especially from some countries where vaccination will take place later on.

Nope, definitely not (unless the fest makes that a restriction).

There's going to be loads of Brits still wandering around without being vaccinated, and air travel has been happening all the way thru the pandemic (with quarantine rules recently relaxed for performers).

19 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Surely the rich and famous will buy a vaccine if they need to? I can’t quite workout what the procedure will be.

It'll be done on the sly thru the NHS vaccine stock.

Probably to raise tory party funds.  

[Matt42]

Ok no problem. I’m just trying to workout/foresee a way where other countries being vaccinated after us might pose a problem. I guess it doesn’t matter for countries where their healthcare is private? Like the US?

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Ok no problem. I’m just trying to workout/foresee a way where other countries being vaccinated after us might pose a problem. I guess it doesn’t matter for countries where their healthcare is private? Like the US?

other countries might insist on vaccine passports. The UK won't.

And really, once we're on top of the healthcare issues because the oldies have had the jab, it shouldn't really be a problem worth worrying about.

[Mimo]

This could potentially get very difficult for Emily Eavis I think. Whilst ultimately the final say on whether festivals are allowed to proceed will be a public health one, she might be caught in a really tough dilemma in March if it's not clear when the restrictions will be fully lifted. Glastonbury could be the canary down the coal mine. 

On the one hand there's the impact on the huge community of crew, the boost to the local area, all the artists, traders etc who are desperate for a full festival season. On the other hand there's the health and wellbeing of everyone attending, something she clearly cares a great deal about, and of course there's the huge risk of the festival getting cancelled last minute.

I really don't envy her having to make the call, really hope it's clear cut one way or the other.

 

[Memory Man]

It is a difficult decision for the team but as postponing has clearly been ruled out due to logistics then they can essentially allow the authorities to make the call for them.

They will just be reliant on a steer from government about where they expect to be by June. Theres still a long time till mid march when the call will need to be made.

It is difficult to see a scenario where the festival call it off in mid March but you then have people saying by late june that they took the decision too hastily and it could have happened. That seems very unlikely to me. We should know by mid march whether it is realistic or not for late June. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Memory Man

[kalifire]

Still reckon it's going to come down to the wire, given March will probably be the critical date rather than June, in terms of decision making. The good news is that by then we'll have a much better idea on how quickly the vaccine can be rolled out, and of vaccine take-up. Public health officials will be able to forecast with confidence.

The question will be whether the number of people projected to be vaccinated by the end of June will be enough to allow an event on the scale of the festival, given Glastonbury's right at the end of the spectrum of crowd-density (albeit outdoors). The government and health chiefs will have an answer for that when they know how much of the vaccine will be arriving, when it will be arriving, and how quickly it can be administered.

[rivalschools.price]

Does anyone know how long it will take to get everyone* vaccinated?

As in, how many medical staff we have to administer the vaccine and how many they can do in a day?

 

*Everyone who’s likely to get one,I realise not everyone in the country will be vaccinated 

Edited December 8, 2020 by rivalschools.price

[Old_Johno]

9 minutes ago, rivalschools.price said:

Does anyone know how long it will take to everyone* vaccinated?

As in, how many medical staff we have to administer the vaccine and how many they can do in a day?

 

*Everyone who’s likely to get one,I realise not everyone in the country will be vaccinated 

We don’t need everyone to get vaccinated, just everyone who’s going to die from it. Millions of people get the flu every year but we only vaccinate the most vulnerable. 

The plan is to vaccinate as many people as possible, but life will be mostly back to normal after the ‘phase one’ vaccinations. 

 

[Gnomicide]

20 minutes ago, rivalschools.price said:

Does anyone know how long it will take to get everyone* vaccinated?

As in, how many medical staff we have to administer the vaccine and how many they can do in a day?

 

*Everyone who’s likely to get one,I realise not everyone in the country will be vaccinated 

The 9 groups in Phase One that they reckon covers around 99% of preventable deaths from Covid should be done in the early months of next year, I've not though seen any hard and fast dates for them.

I'm in the last of the 9 so I hope they get a bloody move on.

I've read that everyone else over 16 will be throughout the rest of the year. The important this is at which point they say that's enough to just get on with life.

[Quark]

10 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

I'm in the last of the 9 so I hope they get a bloody move on.

Really? Always assumed you'd be in a higher group than that

[Gnomicide]

16 minutes ago, Quark said:

Really? Always assumed you'd be in a higher group than that

[Quark]

6 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

Ha! Right in the feels with that one

[Leyrulion]

58 minutes ago, rivalschools.price said:

Does anyone know how long it will take to get everyone* vaccinated?

As in, how many medical staff we have to administer the vaccine and how many they can do in a day?

 

*Everyone who’s likely to get one,I realise not everyone in the country will be vaccinated 

"Easter" is a goal date. 

If we don't get a 2nd approval with the Oxford vaccine before Christmas I think chances of going ahead slip.

With just the Pfizer one delivery has slipped from 10 million by end of December to 4 million. Which means going into early/middle of Feb there will "only" be 2 million with immunity. 

Is that enough to start showing an impact on hospital figures? I've no idea.

[sime]

56 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

We don’t need everyone to get vaccinated, just everyone who’s going to die from it. Millions of people get the flu every year but we only vaccinate the most vulnerable. 

The plan is to vaccinate as many people as possible, but life will be mostly back to normal after the ‘phase one’ vaccinations. 

 

Covid 19 is not the flu. People from all ages and health ranges have died from the Coronavirus. Even with the best, most educated estimates on how the vaccinations will play out with societies returning to any type of 'normality', this is all still unknown territory in terms of this particular virus, with different variables including political, economical, behavioural all playing their part in shaping the planets recovery.

[Mimo]

57 minutes ago, rivalschools.price said:

Does anyone know how long it will take to get everyone* vaccinated?

As in, how many medical staff we have to administer the vaccine and how many they can do in a day?

 

*Everyone who’s likely to get one,I realise not everyone in the country will be vaccinated 

I'm really curious to see how it works with the big vaccination centres and what sort of numbers they can do, I find that stuff fascinating. Also there's potential for them to make me feel proud of my country for the first time in years if organised properly, which would be nice.

A little fag packet maths...

Population of the UK is around 68 million. If 70% of the population need vaccinating to achieve herd immunity that's 48 million ish people getting 2 does each, so 96 million total injections. 

To pick an entirely arbitrary target date next year of June 23rd, starting from say January 6th that's 24 weeks or 168 days.

That would mean 571,426 people getting jabbed every single day. That's a lot of jabs, and it seems impossible on the face of it. But...

To go at it another way, if the average vaccination centre has 20 stations injecting 1 person per minute 12 hours a day it'd do 14,400 injections per day. At those numbers 40 centres could get us to herd immunity by Glastonbury time. There's talk of 42 centres, one for each NHS trust.

All depends on the Oxford vaccine being good enough with a plentiful and uninterrupted supply, and loads of other assumptions wot I've made, but on paper at least it seems possible.

I really need to do some work 😬

 

[Old_Johno]

16 minutes ago, sime said:

Covid 19 is not the flu. People from all ages and health ranges have died from the Coronavirus. Even with the best, most educated estimates on how the vaccinations will play out with societies returning to any type of 'normality', this is all still unknown territory in terms of this particular virus, with different variables including political, economical, behavioural all playing their part in shaping the planets recovery.

99% of deaths will be prevented by the phase one vaccinations. I’m not comparing it to flu as an illness, just the practicality. We won’t achieve “immunity” through vaccination. We will just lower the death toll to something tolerable. 

[zahidf]

16 minutes ago, Mimo said:

I'm really curious to see how it works with the big vaccination centres and what sort of numbers they can do, I find that stuff fascinating. Also there's potential for them to make me feel proud of my country for the first time in years if organised properly, which would be nice.

A little fag packet maths...

Population of the UK is around 68 million. If 70% of the population need vaccinating to achieve herd immunity that's 48 million ish people getting 2 does each, so 96 million total injections. 

To pick an entirely arbitrary target date next year of June 23rd, starting from say January 6th that's 24 weeks or 168 days.

That would mean 571,426 people getting jabbed every single day. That's a lot of jabs, and it seems impossible on the face of it. But...

To go at it another way, if the average vaccination centre has 20 stations injecting 1 person per minute 12 hours a day it'd do 14,400 injections per day. At those numbers 40 centres could get us to herd immunity by Glastonbury time. There's talk of 42 centres, one for each NHS trust.

All depends on the Oxford vaccine being good enough with a plentiful and uninterrupted supply, and loads of other assumptions wot I've made, but on paper at least it seems possible.

I really need to do some work 😬

 

Id say half of thos efigures ( 24 million) will get us to a lowe enough death/hopsitalisation rate for it to go ahead

[Leyrulion]

43 minutes ago, sime said:

People from all ages and health ranges have died from the Coronavirus.

People from all ages and health did of flu each year. We all know this isn't the flu but the government are talking about lifting restrictions after the vulnerable are vaccinated.

[Leyrulion]

40 minutes ago, Mimo said:

I'm really curious to see how it works with the big vaccination centres and what sort of numbers they can do, I find that stuff fascinating. Also there's potential for them to make me feel proud of my country for the first time in years if organised properly, which would be nice.

A little fag packet maths...

Population of the UK is around 68 million. If 70% of the population need vaccinating to achieve herd immunity that's 48 million ish people getting 2 does each, so 96 million total injections. 

To pick an entirely arbitrary target date next year of June 23rd, starting from say January 6th that's 24 weeks or 168 days.

That would mean 571,426 people getting jabbed every single day. That's a lot of jabs, and it seems impossible on the face of it. But...

To go at it another way, if the average vaccination centre has 20 stations injecting 1 person per minute 12 hours a day it'd do 14,400 injections per day. At those numbers 40 centres could get us to herd immunity by Glastonbury time. There's talk of 42 centres, one for each NHS trust.

All depends on the Oxford vaccine being good enough with a plentiful and uninterrupted supply, and loads of other assumptions wot I've made, but on paper at least it seems possible.

I really need to do some work 😬

 

So it's only the adult population being vaccinated which is 54 million. 70% of that is 38 million or 76 million doses.

The BBC are saying there's 70 vaccination centres.