When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

Gotta say, am quite tempted to go tomorrow night (not much else doing this weekend). I'm on their mailing list though and the mail I got yesterday didn't say anything about what measures they're taking either.

Let me know what its like if you go. I would like to go!

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, Sdsm123 said:

Cheers mate! Can’t wait! 😉

 

I guess I can’t kiss myself! 🤪

 

[zahidf]

 

 

 

Edited August 15, 2020 by zahidf

[steviewevie]

Ian Dunt on asylum seekers, Patel etc

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/08/14/week-in-review-patel-deepens-the-moral-collapse-of-the-home

[crocodiles]

12 hours ago, priest17 said:

Might be the best in Manchester. Definitely is if you're not planning on drinking too much. Stunning in the summer when you get a bit if light through the windows at the start.

Albert hall is my favourite venue in Manchester in normal times can get very hot . Agree with others beer is over priced shit even by music venue criteria .

I've hung off on bunnymen but may go if there are more signs of normality . 

But think they would be great there 

[zeppelin]

Hmm, I quite like the beer at the Albert Hall. Camden Pale is far better than what you're getting at O2 Academies. 

[shoptildrop]

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

 

 

 

Can relate as watched a casual friend go with a mixed group of 7 people go to Barcelona for a 30th birthday last week, this week she has her kid playing with her cousin at sisters house... So much for 14 days quarantine!!

[FestivalJamie]

17 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

Can relate as watched a casual friend go with a mixed group of 7 people go to Barcelona for a 30th birthday last week, this week she has her kid playing with her cousin at sisters house... So much for 14 days quarantine!!

Hope they get the £1000 fine. I’m fed up of people thinking rules don’t apply to them.

[zahidf]

Crucible reopened for snooker. York hall has boxing on tonight

[shoptildrop]

26 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Hope they get the £1000 fine. I’m fed up of people thinking rules don’t apply to them.

I know I don't hold out much hope as seem to be oblivious.... as remember before she went someone mentioned to her friend that their travel insurance would be void due to FO non-essential travel rule and they were like it's fine I bought my insurance in Jan not now so its ok 

[FestivalJamie]

+1012 positive tests, +3 deaths (using the revised strategy).

Down from 75 to 73 patients in ventilators.

[FestivalJamie]

26 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

I know I don't hold out much hope as seem to be oblivious.... as remember before she went someone mentioned to her friend that their travel insurance would be void due to FO non-essential travel rule and they were like it's fine I bought my insurance in Jan not now so its ok 

They probably didn't even bother to fill out the forms.. I've heard a lot of airport staff aren't even bothering to collect them at border control... 🙄

[parsonjack]

16 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

+1012 positive tests, +3 deaths (using the revised strategy).

Down from 75 to 73 patients in ventilators.

...and 1012 cases from 177957 tests....which makes the ratio chart look like this.... 

 

[FestivalJamie]

4 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

...and 1012 cases from 177957 tests....which makes the ratio chart look like this.... 

 

So was climbing but on the way back down again, which is really good. Let’s hope it keeps going that way 👍🏻👍🏻

[Chapple12345]

11 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

So was climbing but on the way back down again, which is really good. Let’s hope it keeps going that way 👍🏻👍🏻

And in addition to that the cases haven't soared up quickly as they did on the first peak and are  fluctuating like when we exited lockdown so hopefully it won't lead to a high second peak 

[Fuzzy Afro]

30 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

So was climbing but on the way back down again, which is really good. Let’s hope it keeps going that way 👍🏻👍🏻

Are we thinking yesterday’s +1400 was driven by the sandwich factory outbreak and somewhere between 1000-1100 is the true underlying daily figure at present? 
 

I think if they can maintain those levels and keep the R number around 1 (not strictly below 1), given that the IFR is apparently dropping due to better treatment, I think they’ll probably avoid a full blown second wave (but the caveat is that there will be no “elimination”, and the current levels will probably stay as they are until the vaccine comes along.

 

Schools are a big challenge though, and I think they will probably end up extending the current NW restrictions to the rest of the country to get schools open. So they’ll keep pubs open for the economy, but visiting family and friends could be off limits  

 

My hope is that the virus is mutating into something much less deadly though. If that’s the case then the herd immunity strategy could be back on the table. 

[parsonjack]

18 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Are we thinking yesterday’s +1400 was driven by the sandwich factory outbreak and somewhere between 1000-1100 is the true underlying daily figure at present? 

That would be my thinking too...perhaps even a bit lower.  

[steviewevie]

need to look at weekly averages rather than what is happening daily...and at moment looks fairly constant. Just have to see what happens when schools and colleges go back...and then when starts getting colder.

[Leyrulion]

31 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Are we thinking yesterday’s +1400 was driven by the sandwich factory outbreak and somewhere between 1000-1100 is the true underlying daily figure at present? 
 

I think if they can maintain those levels and keep the R number around 1 (not strictly below 1), given that the IFR is apparently dropping due to better treatment, I think they’ll probably avoid a full blown second wave (but the caveat is that there will be no “elimination”, and the current levels will probably stay as they are until the vaccine comes along.

 

Schools are a big challenge though, and I think they will probably end up extending the current NW restrictions to the rest of the country to get schools open. So they’ll keep pubs open for the economy, but visiting family and friends could be off limits  

 

My hope is that the virus is mutating into something much less deadly though. If that’s the case then the herd immunity strategy could be back on the table. 

1600 new infections is the current daily level the ONS estimate. We've never detected all cases.

[Crazyfool01]

32 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Are we thinking yesterday’s +1400 was driven by the sandwich factory outbreak and somewhere between 1000-1100 is the true underlying daily figure at present?

yep if people are using their loaf and are able to slice 300- 400 off the overall figure 

[Crazyfool01]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

need to look at weekly averages rather than what is happening daily...and at moment looks fairly constant. Just have to see what happens when schools and colleges go back...and then when starts getting colder.

Also pinning my hopes on no increases from bowling alleys 

[Fuzzy Afro]

10 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

1600 new infections is the current daily level the ONS estimate. We've never detected all cases.

Well yeah, I don’t mean 1000 infections per day. But if you assume X% will always go undetected, I think 1000ish positive tests per day is the true underlying figure at the moment, and yesterday’s 1400 was due to the sandwich outbreak 

[Fuzzy Afro]

8 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Also pinning my hopes on no increases from bowling alleys 

I can’t see bowling alleys specifically driving a big change in the R number. Don’t get me wrong I enjoy the odd frame or two, but is bowling really that popular? 

[Crazyfool01]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I can’t see bowling alleys specifically driving a big change in the R number. Don’t get me wrong I enjoy the odd frame or two, but is bowling really that popular? 

yep its will probably spare us an increase in numbers and they are striking the right balance 

Edited August 15, 2020 by crazyfool1

[FestivalJamie]

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

UK Rate now 19.8, 0.2 off the mark where the gov considers countries for quarantine, so looks like we may have to be quarantining ourselves next week 😂

In all seriousness, next Thursday at 10pm I wouldn’t be surprised if croatia, poland, Czechia, Denmark, Switzerland or Greece were added to the quarantine list.