When will this shit end?

[Ryan1984]

After that professor’s confidence about the vaccine on Marr, I was wondering how it will be distributed if/when we find a successful one.

A while off I know, but will it be like a drop-in centre? Or will you be called in on a set date like the BCG jab at school?

[Cream Soda]

55 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

 

Fatality rates may be low under 45, but hospitalisation rates aren’t. In fact they are higher (since many care home residents would never go to hospital as their care would be the same regardless). So, over half the population of the UK is under 45. Even if we take the lower hospitalisation rate of 20% (which is skewed by care home residents as above), then it overwhelms the NHS pretty quickly.

So 1 in 5 of under 45s end up hospitalised? Wow that seems high. (I'm not doubting it, I'm just surprised). So how many of the remaining 80% of under 45s would be mild/moderate cases and how many asymptomatic bssed on what we know so far and would that  20% come down the more testing was done (assuming more asymptomatic cases were identified?)

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Probably more to do with abandoning the lockdown in a lot of states rather than just the protests, though. 

 

1 hour ago, Chapple12345 said:

My friend in America attended a wedding yesterday with over 100 people present, in Britain only Northern Ireland allows them and even then they have caveats of being outside and 10 people present, America is moving out of lockdown at such a fast pace, even faster than us, so it's not surprising if they have a big increase daily 

Surely as they open up there will be pressure from the top to test less so the numbers don't go up? 

[zahidf]

Oh dear. Good albums, nutty views

 

 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Cream Soda said:

So 1 in 5 of under 45s end up hospitalised? Wow that seems high. (I'm not doubting it, I'm just surprised). So how many of the remaining 80% of under 45s would be mild/moderate cases and how many asymptomatic bssed on what we know so far and would that  20% come down the more testing was done (assuming more asymptomatic cases were identified?)

To be honest, I can’t remember where I heard about hospitalisation rates and age. Percentages of anything are highly dependent on how many infections you actually find (really, we probably diagnose about 10% of cases). I have a vague recollection of our CMO commenting on high hospitalisation rates in under 50s, but obviously 1 in 5 don’t end up in hospital since we don’t actually diagnose most cases (most of the asymptomatic and mild cases). The proportion that would end up in hospital would still be too much for the NHS if left unmanaged. The Imperial team (and others at Oxford and beyond) have just published a paper in Nature describing the impact of the measures enacted in the UK. The projected numbers of lives saved is startling (even if the number lost is just as startling). 

[Cream Soda]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

To be honest, I can’t remember where I heard about hospitalisation rates and age. Percentages of anything are highly dependent on how many infections you actually find (really, we probably diagnose about 10% of cases). I have a vague recollection of our CMO commenting on high hospitalisation rates in under 50s, but obviously 1 in 5 don’t end up in hospital since we don’t actually diagnose most cases (most of the asymptomatic and mild cases). The proportion that would end up in hospital would still be too much for the NHS if left unmanaged. 

That's what I was thinking. It will be interesting in the future to look back and see if a different approach would have been viable but that's the benefit of hindsight I suppose.

[Toilet Duck]

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh dear. Good albums, nutty views

 

 

Always loved Matt Johnson, “The world is on its elbows and knees, it’s forgotten the message and worships the creeds” was among the best descriptions of how organised religions have completely  f*cked up the world. Interestingly, AZ have signed numerous deals to provide vaccine on a non-profit basis (I believe this was a condition of the team at the Jenner), which slightly undermines his argument here...

[Simsy]

15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh dear. Good albums, nutty views

 

 

Bill Gates gave $40 million to Chris Whitty? Is that why he's not been doing so many of the press conferences, he's too busy on his yacht in Monaco?

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

That's what I was thinking. It will be interesting in the future to look back and see if a different approach would have been viable but that's the benefit of hindsight I suppose.

At the time, there wasn’t a whole lot of options available unfortunately. If we have to lockdown again, it will be an even bigger failure than how things were managed first time around (now that we know a lot more)...

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, Simsy said:

Bill Gates gave $40 million to Chris Whitty? Is that why he's not been doing so many of the press conferences, he's too busy on his yacht in Monaco?

I read today that Whitty and Vallance are on 'resignation watch', it was after Sunak said that advisors will advise the ministers who will then make decisions. I reckon if the 2meter rule gets relaxed one of them might have had enough and walk.

[Ryan1984]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I read today that Whitty and Vallance are on 'resignation watch', it was after Sunak said that advisors will advise the ministers who will then make decisions. I reckon if the 2meter rule gets relaxed one of them might have had enough and walk.

Did you read that the findings from the report won’t be known until early July?

Reeks of them making a song and dance about reducing it in time for the pubs and restaurants to reopen.

[Crazyfool01]

8 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Did you read that the findings from the report won’t be known until early July?

Reeks of them making a song and dance about reducing it in time for the pubs and restaurants to reopen.

One report they will make public and release on time !! 

[jparx]

Whitty or Vallance resigning would be the nail in the coffin for public confidence moving forward. Have to imagine government is doing all they can to keep them on board. I suspect had they both resigned after Cum Gate we'd already have the 1 meter rule in place. Feels like keeping the 2m in place is also keeping Whitty and Vallance around.

[Ozanne]

21 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Did you read that the findings from the report won’t be known until early July?

Reeks of them making a song and dance about reducing it in time for the pubs and restaurants to reopen.

I'm not sure but I think it was due imminently. I would think they would announce something this week at the 3 week review stage in time for 4th July. It looks like the CMO & CSO aren't supportive though. 

[Crazyfool01]

We are due a shielding / vulnerable announcement this week too ... will give me some idea possibly on my return to work date .. 

[Leyrulion]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I would think they would announce something this week at the 3 week review stage in time for 4th July. 

They changed it to a 4 week review at the last update. No changes due until the 25th June. 

[steviewevie]

If The The is saying the vaccines are dodgy, then they must be dodgy. That is all.

[Ozanne]

9 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

They changed it to a 4 week review at the last update. No changes due until the 25th June. 

Did they, isn’t it law they have to be reviewed every 3 weeks?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

I’m struggling to think of something I would rather do less:

 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’m struggling to think of something I would rather do less:

 

Not one for me either personally. 

[Matt42]

More reporting of a second wave in Beijing. I guess with travel restrictions in place this shouldn’t be something for us to be concerned about. I think we are probably about to approach the second wave phase. How will we deal with it though is the question?

[jparx]

 

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’m struggling to think of something I would rather do less:

 

I think it's become a "fomo" thing for some people. They've had three months of no events, parties whatever, and this is something to be involved in. People in this country will queue early for anything if it's seem as even remotely a big deal.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

More reporting of a second wave in Beijing. I guess with travel restrictions in place this shouldn’t be something for us to be concerned about. I think we are probably about to approach the second wave phase. How will we deal with it though is the question?

I’m not sure you can call it a second wave, it’s a tiny amount of cases, we’ve still got around 5000 infections a day.

That’s what test and trace is for, dealing with small localised outbreaks, and what we’ll be seeing here very regularly over the next few months.

[Matt42]

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’m not sure you can call it a second wave, it’s a tiny amount of cases, we’ve still got around 5000 infections a day.

That’s what test and trace is for, dealing with small localised outbreaks, and what we’ll be seeing here very regularly over the next few months.

Well until recently China was reporting virtually no cases in Beijing so I don’t know how to explain that.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Well until recently China was reporting virtually no cases in Beijing so I don’t know how to explain that.

But it’s not a second wave,  yet, it’s an outbreak. As cases are driven down here it’s exactly what we’ll see all over the country, with the idea being we use test and trace to get in top of it.

My main concern with what is happening in Beijing is it originated in a fish market again. They reckon from imported meat, meat that’s come from Europe. Hopefully that is the case and It’s not just Wuhan all over again.