When will this shit end?

[Waterdeep]

31 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

There’s also no evidence to not prove that. Just because there isn’t evidence to prove something doesn’t mean it isn’t there.

'Not a single Hong Kong resident tested in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic displayed immunity, while just 4 per cent of returnees from Hubei province, the original centre of the outbreak, carried antibodies to the virus, a new study from the University of Hong Kong has found.'

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30053-7/fulltext

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Chapple12345 said:

Last Sundays was 77 so its roughly halved from that point, a downward trend for sure but still devestating for those who have lost loved ones 

Absolutely ... it’s horrendous ... and the total numbers don’t really give any cause for any kind of happiness ... 

[stuartbert two hats]

21 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

lower im sure 81 rings a bell for one day last weekend .... 

77 according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

77 according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

That was from memory ... and mine doesn’t always function totally accurately ... should have looked really ... 

[jparx]

Moronic tweet, but anyway...

How far away are we from the first 0 death day do we reckon? 1 death is too many, but the number today compared with just 7 days ago is definitely promising. Fingers crossed we could reach that milestone in the next month.

[Ozanne]

19 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

'Not a single Hong Kong resident tested in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic displayed immunity, while just 4 per cent of returnees from Hubei province, the original centre of the outbreak, carried antibodies to the virus, a new study from the University of Hong Kong has found.'

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30053-7/fulltext

There is still no evidence to not prove immunity. If there are antibodies of some kind then there will be a level of immunity it just depends on how much and for how long. 

[Crazyfool01]

14 minutes ago, jparx said:

Moronic tweet, but anyway...

How far away are we from the first 0 death day do we reckon? 1 death is too many, but the number today compared with just 7 days ago is definitely promising. Fingers crossed we could reach that milestone in the next month.

id say 3 weeks will be our best chance ... after that id say if these marches cause casualties it will be the weeks after that ...

[jparx]

9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

id say 3 weeks will be our best chance ... after that id say if these marches cause casualties it will be the weeks after that ...

Aye we’ll have to wait with baited breath on that one. I guess in a week or so we should know if the protests in the US have caused a spike?

[Chapple12345]

21 minutes ago, jparx said:

Moronic tweet, but anyway...

How far away are we from the first 0 death day do we reckon? 1 death is too many, but the number today compared with just 7 days ago is definitely promising. Fingers crossed we could reach that milestone in the next month.

Last Monday had 55 recorded deaths so if the same happens as today we could be looking at around 20 tomorrow so as has been mentioned it could be a few weeks before we enter single digital territory, it would be an encouraging step but as has been said still one too many.

We should also find out in the coming days if the protests lead to any increased infections,  there were worries before that never materialised such as VE day so again we can hope to be proved wrong

[Crazyfool01]

George Floyd died on the 25th ..... so we would be seeing some signs already I would have thought ... but ive not been following the US too much and there are other variables that can also influence their figures too ....

[Waterdeep]

20 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

There is still no evidence to not prove immunity. If there are antibodies of some kind then there will be a level of immunity it just depends on how much and for how long. 

Yes there's evidence of immunity but in studies like the one quoted here, 1 in 3 had no detectable levels of neutralising antibodies, and most of the rest had 'poor neutralising activity'.

https://neurosciencenews.com/coronavirus-antibodies-16464/

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

Yes there's evidence of immunity but in studies like the one quoted here, 1 in 3 had no detectable levels of neutralising antibodies, and most of the rest had 'poor neutralising activity'.

https://neurosciencenews.com/coronavirus-antibodies-16464/

Paging @Toilet Duck!

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

There is a big difference between reporting and when the deaths actually happened though, some of today’s reported deaths will date back until April, none actually happened today, or yesterday. So in theory with such a lag we’ll still be seeing them reported for a while and will only know retrospectively the first day we actually had zero deaths on any given day.

Back of fag packet maths - based on the ONS stats we’re running at about 5k cases a day, which is about 20 deaths based on a 0.3% mortality rate, so probably a couple more weeks before we actually don’t have any deaths on any given day.

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

George Floyd died on the 25th ..... so we would be seeing some signs already I would have thought ... but ive not been following the US too much and there are other variables that can also influence their figures too ....

Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/, it does appear that the decline in cases has stopped sadly.

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/, it does appear that the decline in cases has stopped sadly.

 

Probably more to do with abandoning the lockdown in a lot of states rather than just the protests, though. 

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Paging @Toilet Duck!

😂

so...it’s still pretty early to be declaring a definitive answer on this. Immune responses are highly variable, but I wouldn’t expect everyone who is infected no matter how severely, symptomatically or asymptomatically to develop a persistent, neutralising immune response. Even vaccinations with strong adjuvants (kind of immune superchargers) added lead to immunological memory that wanes over time. Anyway, it’ll take time to characterise the immune response to this virus.

However, we’re getting into theoretical discussions about technicalities. The point of this discussions was to wonder whether we should have let under 45s have at it since the fatality rate is very low (while at the same time shielding the vulnerable). Complex interpretations of immunology aside, unfortunately this approach doesn’t work. Fatality rates may be low under 45, but hospitalisation rates aren’t. In fact they are higher (since many care home residents would never go to hospital as their care would be the same regardless). So, over half the population of the UK is under 45. Even if we take the lower hospitalisation rate of 20% (which is skewed by care home residents as above), then it overwhelms the NHS pretty quickly.

 

[Chapple12345]

5 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Probably more to do with abandoning the lockdown in a lot of states rather than just the protests, though. 

My friend in America attended a wedding yesterday with over 100 people present, in Britain only Northern Ireland allows them and even then they have caveats of being outside and 10 people present, America is moving out of lockdown at such a fast pace, even faster than us, so it's not surprising if they have a big increase daily 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Probably more to do with abandoning the lockdown in a lot of states rather than just the protests, though. 

As Mr Fool says, there are indeed many variables. Gathering outside seems to be fairly low risk, but there are loads and loads of these protests, it wouldn't surprise me if they had an effect. It would surprise me if they caused much of a change here given the difference in scale.

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

😂

so...it’s still pretty early to be declaring a definitive answer on this. Immune responses are highly variable, but I wouldn’t expect everyone who is infected no matter how severely, symptomatically or asymptomatically to develop a persistent, neutralising immune response. Even vaccinations with strong adjuvants (kind of immune superchargers) added lead to immunological memory that wanes over time. Anyway, it’ll take time to characterise the immune response to this virus.

However, we’re getting into theoretical discussions about technicalities. The point of this discussions was to wonder whether we should have let under 45s have at it since the fatality rate is very low (while at the same time shielding the vulnerable). Complex interpretations of immunology aside, unfortunately this approach doesn’t work. Fatality rates may be low under 45, but hospitalisation rates aren’t. In fact they are higher (since many care home residents would never go to hospital as their care would be the same regardless). So, over half the population of the UK is under 45. Even if we take the lower hospitalisation rate of 20% (which is skewed by care home residents as above), then it overwhelms the NHS pretty quickly.

 

Thanks again Prof. Duck. You are indeed, a gentleduck and a scholar.

[Ozanne]

10 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

😂

so...it’s still pretty early to be declaring a definitive answer on this. Immune responses are highly variable, but I wouldn’t expect everyone who is infected no matter how severely, symptomatically or asymptomatically to develop a persistent, neutralising immune response. Even vaccinations with strong adjuvants (kind of immune superchargers) added lead to immunological memory that wanes over time. Anyway, it’ll take time to characterise the immune response to this virus.

However, we’re getting into theoretical discussions about technicalities. The point of this discussions was to wonder whether we should have let under 45s have at it since the fatality rate is very low (while at the same time shielding the vulnerable). Complex interpretations of immunology aside, unfortunately this approach doesn’t work. Fatality rates may be low under 45, but hospitalisation rates aren’t. In fact they are higher (since many care home residents would never go to hospital as their care would be the same regardless). So, over half the population of the UK is under 45. Even if we take the lower hospitalisation rate of 20% (which is skewed by care home residents as above), then it overwhelms the NHS pretty quickly.

 

So what I said basically? 😉

[Toilet Duck]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Thanks again Prof. Duck. You are indeed, a gentleduck and a scholar.

No worries!

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

My friend in America attended a wedding yesterday with over 100 people present, in Britain only Northern Ireland allows them and even then they have caveats of being outside and 10 people present, America is moving out of lockdown at such a fast pace, even faster than us, so it's not surprising if they have a big increase daily 

very regional in US, different counties in different states all have diffferent guidance.

Edited June 14, 2020 by steviewevie

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

So what I said basically? 😉

Probably! I can’t keep up with this thread! 

[steviewevie]

The UK govt massively fucked this thing up back in March, and are about to massively fuck up brexit, and still will win the next election.

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Probably! I can’t keep up with this thread! 

got to keep up ... no good ducking in and out ....