When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Can anyone get into the HSJ to read the article? (On a par with April 2020 peak is the cut off part of the headline)

A trust in the South East is forecasting it will be treating as many covid patients in June as it was at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic last April.

Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells Trust’s modelling suggests covid patients would occupy 50 to 100 beds in mid June in a “reasonably optimistic” scenario. The trust, which normally has around 765 beds, was caring for just under 100 covid patients at the height of the first wave last spring. 

The “optimistic” scenario is based on both lockdown restrictions being relaxed as planned and the vaccination programme continuing in line with the government plans as of early March.

However, a paper submitted to the trust’s board meeting being held tomorrow says poorer adherence to social distancing could push numbers up to between 100 and 150 with the peak happening at least a month earlier.

“This scenario sees the pandemic start to burn itself out sooner as the percentage of the population with resistance to the virus, either from vaccination or prior infection, hits the critical ‘herd immunity’ level,” the paper says.

In a worst case scenario, where vaccines are 10 per cent less efficacious — potentially due to a mutation of the virus, supply problems or poorer uptake — the trust would have 150-200 beds filled by covid patients with a peak in mid-May and numbers remaining above 100 until late June.

“Any further reductions [in vaccine effectiveness] would send rates even higher, and delay the population reaching herd immunity,” the paper says.

The model of average weekly covid occupancy developed by the trust uses forecasts provided by Kent and Medway Clinical Commissioning Group and data on observed lengths of stay. It argues that, with schools returning and the public’s behaviour changing, there is a high probability of more cases among younger, less medically vulnerable groups.

“This was observed in the autumn, when case counts started to rise in the younger population but hospital admissions remained very low until a few weeks later, when infections started to rise in older populations,” the paper says.

It notes actual admissions are currently below the forecast for the most optimistic scenario, but warns this could easily change as the scenarios are sensitive to public behaviour and vaccine effectiveness. All the scenarios mapped show the number of covid patients falling to below 25 by September.

Like many trusts in the South East, MTW saw covid admissions soar rapidly at the end of 2020 as the highly infectious Kent variant spread across the region. At one point, the trust took extra patients from the Medway and Swale areas, as Medway Foundation Trust experienced covid occupancy of well over 50 per cent. MTW has recently started to restore some less urgent elective work. 

[zahidf]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[zahidf]

FT article on the EU vax ban. Seems it is strongly (and rightly) opposed by several northern states, but its being done on QMV, so it will probably go through, and it will hinder our vax program. Imagine if that leads to a longer lockdown and more UK deaths

https://www.ft.com/content/74e30a00-37aa-414b-8200-40ed91767089

 

From the FT:

The measures, which were unveiled ahead of a summit of EU leaders starting tomorrow, are strongly backed by France. Italy has also stressed the need to be tough in policing export authorisations. But the proposals have provoked deep concern in some other capitals, which warn that they may jeopardise complex supply chains for vaccines and their ingredients.

“They are ill-thought-through, impetuous and aggressive and they seem to be a solution to a problem we don’t actually have,” said one EU diplomat.

Countries that have raised concerns in EU meetings over the past two days include Belgium, Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands. Angela Merkel, German chancellor, told the media on Tuesday that it was necessary to be “very careful about imposing blanket export bans” given the importance of securing supply chains. But she still stressed that the EU was the world’s biggest vaccine exporter, while other parts of the world were exporting nothing at all.

The new rules would build on an existing EU authorisation scheme, in place since February, which was essentially concerned with making sure vaccine makers failing to meet their obligations to the bloc did not ship much needed supplies abroad. The scheme was a response to supply problems at AstraZeneca.

But the updated version would allow exports to be stopped even if the drugmaker concerned was meeting its contractual commitments to Brussels.

The EU plans also foresee shipments being stopped on the grounds that the destination country is far ahead of the bloc in vaccinating its population, or already has strong availability of vaccines. The draft legal proposal argues that this is relevant to the EU's own “security of supply”.
----end----

 

Edited March 24, 2021 by zahidf

[steviewevie]

EU vs UK

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/24/uk-singled-out-for-failing-to-export-covid-vaccines-to-eu

[Fuzzy Afro]

26 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

I'd hope, but don't expect, that people might put one on if going onto a packed tube/train etc when ill like they do in Japan. Would be considerate but I doubt it'll happen

 

It's not a binary thing, and people making sweeping predictions that "people will keep wearing masks" or "people won't keep wearing masks" are unhelpful. Different people will have different thresholds for when they'd wear a mask. For me, I'd try to avoid public transport full stop if I was ill, but if I absolutely had to use it I'd consider a mask. You won't see me in one when I'm not ill though.

 

The matter is complicated further by the fact that wearing masks is actively unhelpful against most respiratory viruses with covid-19 being an outlier.

[Homer]

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

Have also just done my first and only ever blocking today.

Yep, I did my first one after 18 years on here about a month ago. I rarely bother to come in this thread any more. Every time I do, it just seems to be one rolling tedious argument.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Homer said:

Yep, I did my first one after 18 years on here about a month ago. I rarely bother to come in this thread any more. Every time I do, it just seems to be one rolling tedious argument.

Just as the shit starts to end the shit starts .. what a weird lot us humans are 🙂 

[steviewevie]

If anyone wants a bit of nostalgia March 23 2020 starts on p3 of this thread.

Edited March 24, 2021 by steviewevie
wrong year

[efcfanwirral]

6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I think a better change is if you stay home if you are ill.

The concept people go to work with a bad cold in the future surely must end!

that would be much better - I've always wanted this but sadly I don't see it changing too much, considering in some quarters it sounds like it didn't change when that bad cold might have actually been covid! I doubt financial incentives will be in place, likely even further eroded unfortunately when we see our "brexit benefits" on employment rights

Edited March 24, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Billy Corgan's Ego]

Reuters reporting India have temporarily suspended all vaccine exports due to rise in domestic cases. 

Not looking too promising for the under 50s in he short term...and therefore the roadmap

Edited March 24, 2021 by Billy Corgan's Ego

[efcfanwirral]

53 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

A trust in the South East is forecasting it will be treating as many covid patients in June as it was at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic last April.

Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells Trust’s modelling suggests covid patients would occupy 50 to 100 beds in mid June in a “reasonably optimistic” scenario. The trust, which normally has around 765 beds, was caring for just under 100 covid patients at the height of the first wave last spring. 

The “optimistic” scenario is based on both lockdown restrictions being relaxed as planned and the vaccination programme continuing in line with the government plans as of early March.

However, a paper submitted to the trust’s board meeting being held tomorrow says poorer adherence to social distancing could push numbers up to between 100 and 150 with the peak happening at least a month earlier.

“This scenario sees the pandemic start to burn itself out sooner as the percentage of the population with resistance to the virus, either from vaccination or prior infection, hits the critical ‘herd immunity’ level,” the paper says.

In a worst case scenario, where vaccines are 10 per cent less efficacious — potentially due to a mutation of the virus, supply problems or poorer uptake — the trust would have 150-200 beds filled by covid patients with a peak in mid-May and numbers remaining above 100 until late June.

“Any further reductions [in vaccine effectiveness] would send rates even higher, and delay the population reaching herd immunity,” the paper says.

The model of average weekly covid occupancy developed by the trust uses forecasts provided by Kent and Medway Clinical Commissioning Group and data on observed lengths of stay. It argues that, with schools returning and the public’s behaviour changing, there is a high probability of more cases among younger, less medically vulnerable groups.

“This was observed in the autumn, when case counts started to rise in the younger population but hospital admissions remained very low until a few weeks later, when infections started to rise in older populations,” the paper says.

It notes actual admissions are currently below the forecast for the most optimistic scenario, but warns this could easily change as the scenarios are sensitive to public behaviour and vaccine effectiveness. All the scenarios mapped show the number of covid patients falling to below 25 by September.

Like many trusts in the South East, MTW saw covid admissions soar rapidly at the end of 2020 as the highly infectious Kent variant spread across the region. At one point, the trust took extra patients from the Medway and Swale areas, as Medway Foundation Trust experienced covid occupancy of well over 50 per cent. MTW has recently started to restore some less urgent elective work. 

Thanks - headline doesn't quite match up to the contents of the article, though anything other than the "optimistic scenario" for June isn't something we want reflected around the country...

Interesting that they expect that in June then back to normal for September - I remember all the modelling at the start saying a smaller final peak at the end 

[efcfanwirral]

8 minutes ago, Billy Corgan's Ego said:

Reuters reporting India have temporarily suspended all vaccine exports due to rise in domestic cases. 

Not looking too promising for the under 50s in he short term...and therefore the roadmap

We still make some AZ here remember too, so we're not stopping completely. By June 21st surely we'll have done down to at least 40, probably nearer 30. Also novavax 6m per month apparently (made here), once approved that's 18m first doses in 3 months, a pretty sizeable proportion of the population - probably all we'll need by that point. 

I think we'll still hit 31st July for all adults regardless of all this - it just stops us doing it mega quick like the media made us believe. 

The big question is - will they REALLY be opening up fully on 21st June before all adults are done? I know I keep saying it but that has never made sense despite them saying the roadmap is fine (based on all the talk of vaccines being the way out and the general tone of scientists - I personally think if we can get down to 30 year olds by 21st June it makes perfect sense to open up). 

Edited March 24, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[stuartbert two hats]

15 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Thanks - headline doesn't quite match up to the contents of the article, though anything other than the "optimistic scenario" for June isn't something we want reflected around the country...

Interesting that they expect that in June then back to normal for September - I remember all the modelling at the start saying a smaller final peak at the end 

It seems completely out of whack with my expectations personally.  Are they modelling based on every person who gets infected goes on to develop serious disease?

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Covid has hit my wife secondary school and now my kids primary school.  Luckily not my kids years.

Feels like September 2020 again.... 😞 

what sort of numbers are we talking? and is it whole years off to isolation or are they testing their way out of it this time?

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It seems completely out of whack with my expectations personally.  Are they modelling based on every person who gets infected goes on to develop serious disease?

same - though it could be that the expectation is that there will be a bit of a hit on those the vaccine doesn't work on whenever we open up fully, and maybe the roadmap takes into account that (from last year's evidence anyway) the best time to do it is the summer?

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 

In school track and trace.  They are sending home close contacts regardless of tests.

So if kid A tests positives they work out who has been in close contact and send them home - full stop - 10 days.

OTT for me but I can understand why they are doing it. It is not sustainable either, at some point they are going to have to stop testing and stop sending people home. 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

I know - where does it end..  when does it end...

The kids are in serious trouble already, if this carry's on they are going to up to a year behind in some cases 😞

Yep. For this reason it just isn't sustainable. I don't think the kids will be kept at home again like they have been since xmas. They just cant be, simple as that. It would destroy way more lives long term than any saved from the benefit of any lockdown. 

It's not just kids either, businesses and livelyhoods cant take another hit. This has to be the last proper lockdown, no other way of putting it really. 

 

[zahidf]

 

 

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It's not a binary thing, and people making sweeping predictions that "people will keep wearing masks" or "people won't keep wearing masks" are unhelpful. Different people will have different thresholds for when they'd wear a mask. For me, I'd try to avoid public transport full stop if I was ill, but if I absolutely had to use it I'd consider a mask. You won't see me in one when I'm not ill though.

So many of the issues caused by this are by people assuming everyone is seeing the world the same way they are. People on both sides of the debate are in for a huge shock when things start to open up again, as they realise plenty of people do think the same as them, but there's loads that don't too.

54 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I have to be honest - I will never wear a mask unless legally forced too.

Bet you're fun at halloween!

[efcfanwirral]

 

Might be a bit longer til we can go to the pub if we're younger!

[eFestivals]

4 hours ago, jannybruck said:

Nah, this thread's been a shitshow for weeks now. Loads of sniping, trolling, dumb arguing.

 

and you sniping post changes that how exactly?

[jannybruck]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

and you sniping post changes that how exactly?

With all due respect, this wasn't sniping, but I could've probably worded it better. I was pointing out that it wasn't as simple as pointing the finger at just one user and just reflects a broader atmosphere in the thread/probably in the public at large.

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Might be a bit longer til we can go to the pub if we're younger!

If I had to guess, private landlords won't do it until later in the year when everyone has the option for one.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

If I had to guess, private landlords won't do it until later in the year when everyone has the option for one.

pubs are going to need every penny in the till they can get .... its that balance of numbers to see which is going to fill the pub ..... the jabbed v the unjabbed .... and will the jabbed be nervous of the unjabbed 

[jannybruck]

It's just untenable, really. If it's not mandatory how many little pubs or coffee shops have the staffing level or energy to ask for people's vaccine certificates or green ticks for every customer that walks through the door? What do they lose or gain out of it? I can't understand why places would want to put this in effect, it's not like ID'ing customers for age where they'd get a massive fine.

Hospitality desperately needs custom this summer and I really can't imagine minimum wage employees having either the willingness or the bravery to deal with sorting out the vaccinated from the unvaccinated. They struggle enough with customers and masks.