When will this shit end?

[Leyrulion]

25 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Hmm. Everyone brace yourselves for going into tier 3 after lockdown.

Agree. But tier 3 will be stricter then before. 

The regulations around the tiers have been revoked so it's really a blank slate for when they're introduced again.

[Crazyfool01]

 

[duke88]

5 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

So...Yes, the Oxford trial does have an interim analysis planned (just the one, whereas Pfizer and Moderna had multiple ones)...as noted above, they also had more participants in the vaccinated arm of the trial, so if the vaccine works, then they will have fewer people at risk of infection/disease (both this and the higher number required to trigger unblinding mean a longer wait). As it happens, both Pfizer and Moderna overshot the number they needed for their first planned analysis (and had more than Oxford need too). 

As regards ethics of continuing trials, there remain many unanswered questions (how well do they perform in different populations?, how long does immunity last?, do they provide sterilising immunity?, can we reformulate to use other routes of administration?, can we combine with other vaccines? There will be trials going on for quite some time...at some point once we have fully approved vaccines they will become vaccine (standard of care) vs vaccine trials, but for the moment, they remain vaccine vs placebo (we are tying to show they work, later we will try to show they work better than what we have). 

You can't stop trial participants getting another vaccine should one be approved. It's a risk that is built into the design, you would just have to censor those participants from your analysis (and recruit more should you dip below the required participant number to adequately power your trial...unlikely that you would have that many drop out before you finished though). Trying to keep behaviour between the different arms of the trial consistent is exactly why Oxford used another vaccine as their control (rather than saline which doesn't produce much response so it lets participants guess whether they got the vaccine or the placebo...it also gives a more meaningful measure of the adverse effects as it compares to the reactions observed in an approved vaccine). 

Yes, now is the time to test as many vaccines as possible (while infection rates are high...they will take longer when infection rates fall). 

I had a phone call today about going on the trial for the Novovax vaccine that's starting imminently. I asked about whether it would have any affect on getting a vaccine as part of the national rollout (not that I'd be due one for ages being under 50), was told that they have protocols in place to ensure I'm not disadvantaged in this regard.

I'm quite excited about it! Going for a medical later in the week, but sounds like if there's no issue with it, I should be getting a jab in the next week or so (although there's obviously the chance I could be getting a placebo).

Do you know much about this one @Toilet Duck?

[Ozanne]

22 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I just wonder what my company will do...we were told we have to go into office before lockdown when in Tier3.

That’s pretty harsh of your company, hopefully they’ll change their tune after this lockdown. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

That’s pretty harsh of your company, hopefully they’ll change their tune after this lockdown. 

it's all a bit macho bollocks at my place.

[Ozanne]

 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

 

It has though! That's stopped the exponential growth right in its tracks.  This week will be key for the rest of the country that wasn't in tier 3 before the lockdown.  It might not happen for a few days, but expect large swathes of the country to see a modest decline this time next week.  We might even see declining hospitalisation in Manchester if we're lucky, although to be honest I'm not really expecting that to be a clear trend until the proposed end date of this lockdown.

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It has though! That's stopped the exponential growth right in its tracks.  This week will be key for the rest of the country that wasn't in tier 3 before the lockdown.  It might not happen for a few days, but expect large swathes of the country to see a modest decline this time next week.  We might even see declining hospitalisation in Manchester if we're lucky, although to be honest I'm not really expecting that to be a clear trend until the proposed end date of this lockdown.

To be fair that guy has been spot on about everything so far since I’ve started following him in September, he’s got decent credentials too. The point is we should be seeing a decline at this stage and because we aren’t any cute decline might be too late before the end date of lockdown.

It’s also what I’ve been saying tier 3 was helping the areas that had large growth but potentially wasn’t getting the numbers down quick enough. The numbers should be going down soon, we are 12 days into this, if they don’t soon then I don’t know how they can relax lockdown especially as a week after they send students home. 

[Toilet Duck]

26 minutes ago, duke88 said:

I had a phone call today about going on the trial for the Novovax vaccine that's starting imminently. I asked about whether it would have any affect on getting a vaccine as part of the national rollout (not that I'd be due one for ages being under 50), was told that they have protocols in place to ensure I'm not disadvantaged in this regard.

I'm quite excited about it! Going for a medical later in the week, but sounds like if there's no issue with it, I should be getting a jab in the next week or so (although there's obviously the chance I could be getting a placebo).

Do you know much about this one @Toilet Duck?

It’s a different type of vaccine, all the ones so far are genetic vaccines, this is a protein one (albeit a rather fancy version of the subunit vaccines we use for other diseases). The pre-clinical and early trial data for it suggests it could be one of the best available, but obviously we need to see the results of the trial!

[Ryan1984]

What are we thinking for 2 December then?

Whatever this ‘lockdown’ is ending and the majority of the nation into tier three with the caveat of ‘behave yourselves and you can see Mum and Gran at Christmas’..?

[duke88]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It’s a different type of vaccine, all the ones so far are genetic vaccines, this is a protein one (albeit a rather fancy version of the subunit vaccines we use for other diseases). The pre-clinical and early trial data for it suggests it could be one of the best available, but obviously we need to see the results of the trial!

Thanks very much, that's great news. Just hope I get on it, and get the actual vaccine if I do!

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

To be fair that guy has been spot on about everything so far since I’ve started following him in September, he’s got decent credentials too. The point is we should be seeing a decline at this stage and because we aren’t any cute decline might be too late before the end date of lockdown.

It’s also what I’ve been saying tier 3 was helping the areas that had large growth but potentially wasn’t getting the numbers down quick enough. The numbers should be going down soon, we are 12 days into this, if they don’t soon then I don’t know how they can relax lockdown especially as a week after they send students home. 

I agree with this.  As much as we want it to be over for the Christmas month, it's too late and not long enough to put a real dent in the cases.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Ryan1984 said:

What are we thinking for 2 December then?

Whatever this ‘lockdown’ is ending and the majority of the nation into tier three with the caveat of ‘behave yourselves and you can see Mum and Gran at Christmas’..?

I would say so, yes.

[Crazyfool01]

will we get everyone on Trials of different vaccines before we get the vaccine  

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, Ryan1984 said:

What are we thinking for 2 December then?

Whatever this ‘lockdown’ is ending and the majority of the nation into tier three with the caveat of ‘behave yourselves and you can see Mum and Gran at Christmas’..?

Lockdown will end and be replaced with a 4 tier system. Tier 4 will be full local lockdown. 1-3 will be as you were. Entire nation will get punted into tiers 2 and 3 to start with. 4 will only get used if there’s a serious risk that the NHS will be overwhelmed in a region. Tier 1 will be implemented nation wide from say 24-26 December. 

[Ryan1984]

The only thing there is would they close pubs/hospitality over Christmas? Tier 3 is pubs open as long as you buy a substantial meal, isn’t it?

[Andre91]

I think they will do the 4 tier system come December 2nd and with Christmas on the way I predict that the public at large won’t abide by the rules under the pathetic guise of ‘We’ve had to do this for most of the year, Christmas is coming, we need to enjoy ourselves!’ and things will be just as fucked and then they will all wonder why they aren’t allowed to do fuck all again next year until this mass vaccine rollout happens. 

[Ozanne]

8 minutes ago, Andre91 said:

I think they will do the 4 tier system come December 2nd and with Christmas on the way I predict that the public at large won’t abide by the rules under the pathetic guise of ‘We’ve had to do this for most of the year, Christmas is coming, we need to enjoy ourselves!’ and things will be just as fucked and then they will all wonder why they aren’t allowed to do fuck all again next year until this mass vaccine rollout happens. 

Pretty much, which is why there needs to be decent messaging about what will happen.

[Crazyfool01]

 

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

To be fair that guy has been spot on about everything so far since I’ve started following him in September, he’s got decent credentials too. The point is we should be seeing a decline at this stage and because we aren’t any cute decline might be too late before the end date of lockdown.

It’s also what I’ve been saying tier 3 was helping the areas that had large growth but potentially wasn’t getting the numbers down quick enough. The numbers should be going down soon, we are 12 days into this, if they don’t soon then I don’t know how they can relax lockdown especially as a week after they send students home. 

 

[Ozanne]

20 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Yes, it could be lower or higher. 

[Chapple12345]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yes, it could be lower or higher. 

*I wouldn't normally joke about this but I couldn't resist 

[Fuzzy Afro]

17 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yes, it could be lower or higher. 

It’s just a reallocation isn’t it? 

[steviewevie]

[priest17]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Some great stuff in the telegraph about what The Crown got wrong