When will this shit end?

[efcfanwirral]

53 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

Back up this time next week when the effects of the return to school after half term are felt. Pretty sure the drop is down to half term 

 

[Lycra]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Isn’t Chris Whitty arguing that quick turnaround is more important than capacity? I mean, feel free to disagree with him. But there’s definitely backing in the medical community for what Eustice 

There's backing in all the medical community for rapid accurate testing but this is not being achieved and track & trace is failing too. However Eustace was specifically commenting on rapid testing which at present relies on lateral flow tests. These work best with samples containing high viral loading and have a propensity to give false negatives, hence leaving an infected person to go about their business undetected.

[Fuzzy Afro]

20 minutes ago, Lycra said:

There's backing in all the medical community for rapid accurate testing but this is not being achieved and track & trace is failing too. However Eustace was specifically commenting on rapid testing which at present relies on lateral flow tests. These work best with samples containing high viral loading and have a propensity to give false negatives, hence leaving an infected person to go about their business undetected.

The tests are for infectiousness are they not? If someone is infected but not infectious, then them going about their business surely isn’t problematic? 

[efcfanwirral]

20 minutes ago, Lycra said:

There's backing in all the medical community for rapid accurate testing but this is not being achieved and track & trace is failing too. However Eustace was specifically commenting on rapid testing which at present relies on lateral flow tests. These work best with samples containing high viral loading and have a propensity to give false negatives, hence leaving an infected person to go about their business undetected.

Is it going to end up being a bit of a numbers game? So yes a few carry on with their business, but if the options are to have that vs NOT doing those extra hundreds of thousands/millions of tests to catch people who otherwise wouldn't be tested, overall we come out ahead?

[tigger123]

Pfizer saying their vaccine was 90% effective in phase 3 trials!!

 

good news keeps on coming!!

[Leyrulion]

Just now on BBC now

Pfizervaccine is 90% effective in phase 3 trial.

This is it right? Effectiveness in phase 3 trials is what we've been waiting for?

[Fuzzy Afro]

@Toilet Duck!!!!

[zahidf]

 

[zahidf]

 

[zahidf]

I knew it. Second trump loses and a working vaccine comes out...

[Fuzzy Afro]

Boris briefing 5pm, it’s happening!!!!

[zahidf]

 

[Jcatley]

I still feel like it’s going to be a real slog through winter, but feeling much happier about the world with all the news the last few days. 

[JoeyT]

I'm actually quite emotional about it, jesus.

[Leyrulion]

Oh ok. It's only an interim analysis based on 30-50 cases that have triggered the analysis.

But still promising!

 

[topmarksbri]

Have Pfizer discussed how they're going to distribute? I know Oxford have discussed earmarking some for 3rd world countries etc. Have to say 1.3bn doesn't seem like a lot when each person will need 2...

[jannybruck]

Feel on the verge of tears about this, weirdly. There was chatter about approving vaccines that were 30-60% effective so even if this is a slightly high estimate, it's still a fucking gamechanger. See you down the front this summer?

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, topmarksbri said:

Have Pfizer discussed how they're going to distribute? I know Oxford have discussed earmarking some for 3rd world countries etc. Have to say 1.3bn doesn't seem like a lot when each person will need 2...

Surely they’ll just ramp up production now that we know it works? 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Oh ok. It's only an interim analysis based on 30-50 cases that have triggered the analysis.

But still promising!

 

Anyhow, 30-50 cases in the placebo group vs hardly any in the vaccine group is great news 

[topmarksbri]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Surely they’ll just ramp up production now that we know it works? 

1.3bn is the max they can produce next year, according to Pfizer.

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Have Pfizer discussed how they're going to distribute? I know Oxford have discussed earmarking some for 3rd world countries etc. Have to say 1.3bn doesn't seem like a lot when each person will need 2...

 

[zero000]

Trump gone and a vaccine at last. 2020 you’ve come good! 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, zero000 said:

Trump gone and a vaccine at last. 2020 you’ve come good! 

We’ve just been Biden our time waiting for a vaccine 😉

[incident]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Surely they’ll just ramp up production now that we know it works? 

There's certainly scope for discussions to be had.

I assume the numbers quoted are the absolute maximum based on their own manufacturing capacity - the question is whether or not they're prepared to subcontract / licence out, or to failing that can strike a deal to acquire existing (ie ready to go) manufacturing capacity from elsewhere. If they're the only game in town or significantly more effective than the others, then there'll certainly be significant pressure on them to increase capacity one way or another, and it'll most likely be lucrative to do so.

[Lycra]

19 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Is it going to end up being a bit of a numbers game? So yes a few carry on with their business, but if the options are to have that vs NOT doing those extra hundreds of thousands/millions of tests to catch people who otherwise wouldn't be tested, overall we come out ahead?

Depends on test effectiveness. If 25-50% are false negatives then doesn't get us very far.