When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

24 minutes ago, Sawdusty Surfer said:

Damn, was so looking forward to rocking the milennium in these dark times and completely missed it.

Story of my life.

First thought was, hey, got 2000 to look forward to but bollocks to that...love to think that this thread will have faded into the mists of time long before we get there. 

It's all shit at the mo, just been to an strange Bottomless Brunch in Bristol for daught #2's significant birthday. Was safe, odd but lovely. 

This wonky world that we're living will end.

It is shit (sorry to repeat myself, blame the Prosecco) but we will get back to doing the thngs that we love. This is a convo we had this afternoon. Hang in there. 

Imagine how wonderful it will be when we finally let loose in a field after all this. It will be better than ever and we will have earned it so much. Keep the faith guys x

 

#maybeadminshouldmovetodrunkenthread

We will get there ... and people will be sat round that beautifull table of yours chatting shit in the sunshine before long ... and those ground reports will be more appreciated than they were before ... 

[FestivalJamie]

3 minutes ago, august1 said:

Especially when you can meet your parents in the pub but not the garden.

Can someone elaborate to me how the hell this makes any sense at reducing transmission rates?

[dotdash79]

When people think of bubbles, they only think of there own and not about other people’s. Is diagram sums it up nicely 

 

[FestivalJamie]

2 minutes ago, dotdash79 said:

When people think of bubbles, they only think of there own and not about other people’s. Is diagram sums it up nicely 

 

This is so true, except that I don’t even have a bubble lol

Edited September 27, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[Zoo Music Girl]

Yeah when people talk about extended bubbles I just don't get how it would work. Like my partner's parents and my parents would have to be in the same bubble as us, but they've only met once and live miles apart. So that's weird. We'd also likely have to add our siblings' families. If we wanted to add any friends, do we add their families? You either need a really small bubble or a fucking huge one.

[Crazyfool01]

My bubble is me ... occasional visit to my folks  when I can at lower risk to them ... I’m comfortable with that risk ... I’ll stick to online efest meets through the winter 

[Leyrulion]

13 minutes ago, dotdash79 said:

When people think of bubbles, they only think of there own and not about other people’s. Is diagram sums it up nicely 

 

Right but I think this would still be better then the current system. 

In that bubble the main person has 5 close contacts and 9 secondary contacts. 14 people in total. 

Under the current system you could meet different groups of 5 people for breakfast, lunch and dinner. That's 15 close contacts and potentially 30+ secondary contacts, if the ratio stayed the same. 

[Homer]

29 minutes ago, dotdash79 said:

I was thinking this before it will get better, they will be a end. 
 

with any luck my first gig when this is done is Doves. I think might have a little cry when they play there goes the fear  

Just let it go.

[stuartbert two hats]

44 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Right but I think this would still be better then the current system. 

In that bubble the main person has 5 close contacts and 9 secondary contacts. 14 people in total. 

Under the current system you could meet different groups of 5 people for breakfast, lunch and dinner. That's 15 close contacts and potentially 30+ secondary contacts, if the ratio stayed the same. 

That's the thing. Once you start being a member of a non-exclusive bubble, it's not a bubble, it's a network.

[stuartbert two hats]

35 minutes ago, Homer said:

Just let it go.

You turn around and 2020's passed you by.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

Britain's failure to learn the hard lessons of its first Covid surge is a disaster

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/27/britain-failure-covid-surge-disaster-test-trace-virus

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, FestivalJamie said:

Can someone elaborate to me how the hell this makes any sense at reducing transmission rates?

Pubs/ restaurants etc are meant to have measures in place to make them safer- meant to be cleaned to a high standard and have social distancing etc whereas if u meet in a home you don't have that. 

Also I suppose the gov want people out and spending money in these places.

[tigger123]

1 hour ago, FestivalJamie said:

Can someone elaborate to me how the hell this makes any sense at reducing transmission rates?

One makes money for the economy, the other doesn't. It makes total sense from an economic perspective, zero sense from a public health perspective

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Yeah when people talk about extended bubbles I just don't get how it would work. Like my partner's parents and my parents would have to be in the same bubble as us, but they've only met once and live miles apart. So that's weird. We'd also likely have to add our siblings' families. If we wanted to add any friends, do we add their families? You either need a really small bubble or a fucking huge one.

It wouldn’t work, it’s unworkable which is why they’ve kept it to single adult households only and even that’s open to manipulation tbh

[Chapple12345]

49 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Interesting, does this mean we’re seeing the results of a peak at the end of August now and them hopefully we’ll see a lowering amount of cases in a few weeks before a small rise a few weeks later? If this is indicative of how the winter will pan out maybe they won’t need as draconian measures in place 

[Ozanne]

I kind of get what this guy means.

 

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

14 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I kind of get what this guy means.

 

 

He is a good follow on Twitter. He’s biased like everyone else, but because he’s a “corona centrist”, at least the bias comes from a somewhat objective middle ground. He’s not a herd immunity guy nor a zero covid guy 

[fraybentos1]

17 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I kind of get what this guy means.

 

 

Should it not be hospitalisations and deaths that matter though? Both of which are way way lower than last time.

[FestivalJamie]

4 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Should it not be hospitalisations and deaths that matter though? Both of which are way way lower than last time.

Hospitalisations are lower than first wave right now but rising. Bear in mind France has seen 4-6k hospitalisations this week alone, and we are currently heading down that path.

[Chapple12345]

This issue is nowadays it's very much a 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' situation. Everyone can interpret it in their ways so you're both right, cases are going up but hospitalizations and deaths remain relatively low compared to before, I think the next few weeks are going go be pretty unpleasant with arguments on either side for interpreting the data

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

Hospitalisations are lower than first wave right now but rising. Bear in mind France has seen 4-6k hospitalisations this week alone, and we are currently heading down that path.

Likewise, their death rate is way lower than before. I get that there is a drag with the death figures but I think there are plenty reasons to be optimistic.

[Chapple12345]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

Likewise, their death rate is way lower than before. I get that there is a drag with the death figures but I think there are plenty reasons to be optimistic.

And also France have put very little in place to stop cases rising, people can argue about their effectiveness but we've had some restrictions and local lockdowns put in place to at least attempt to flatten the curve rather than letting it fully run wild 

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

Likewise, their death rate is way lower than before. I get that there is a drag with the death figures but I think there are plenty reasons to be optimistic.

1. Lag with death figures.

2. This winter, I’m not concerned about deaths. I’m concerned about the health system being overwhelmed. We also have the flu to worry about and we cannot just cancel and abort cancer patients treatment and other routine hospital appointments like we did last time. Half the hospital admissions that we had in March from covid would be enough to overwhelm and shut down the nhs, cancelling other necessary treatments this winter.

Its not just about covid deaths, it’s about the bigger picture. People will die sooner from cancer because they couldn’t be treated in March-June. Let’s not have a repeat of that again this winter. There is a fragile tipping point when the healthcare system starts to become overwhelmed and you can see in Marseille and the like that they have reached that tipping point.

[FestivalJamie]

4 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

And also France have put very little in place to stop cases rising, people can argue about their effectiveness but we've had some restrictions and local lockdowns put in place to at least attempt to flatten the curve rather than letting it fully run wild 

The use of local lockdowns is very flimsy. Our local lockdowns have not been lockdowns, simply asking people to not mix households. The lockdown in Leicester was a genuine lockdown, the rest have just been half arsed attempts to try and stop the public socialising, and it’s not working.

Dont get me wrong, we are in a much better position than march/April. We have masks, better cleaning, testing etc. But at the same time I think it takes less covid hospitalisations to overwhelm the NHS this winter when we have the flu+ a backlog of patients from this spring. We cannot cancel routine appointments like we did last time. People will argue the nhs wasn’t overwhelmed in April because the nightingale was empty- but it was!! All other routine appointments such as cancer treatments got cancelled. This CANNOT happen again.

Most likely covid deaths this winter will be lower than in the spring, but we need to make sure everyone can get access to the treatments they need this winter, not just covid patients.

Edited September 27, 2020 by FestivalJamie