When will this shit end?

[StuMalinas]

Just now, Mr.Tease said:

I was also wondering this the other day, the i paper said this last month:

The new vaccine should be available in the second half of 2021, if approved for use by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), the Government said.

with that in mind what happens if all adults have had their first dose of either Moderna, AZ or Pfizer do those other vaccines become not needed at all. 

[hodgey123]

Pretty sure he said he was taking LSD and drinking today so probably best to ignore...

[Guest]

Vaccination update:

[xxialac]

1 hour ago, StuMalinas said:

Ok Ill run down how I currently feel. 

 

2020 - Boris made lots of mistakes but I feel that he tried his hardest and I feel any leader in charge would have done the same so I feel he did the best job he could because there was so many unknown variables at play. 

2021- I feel he has learnt from said mistakes and wants to be cautious which is a good thing as it really drives the numbers down and I think the vaccine procurement process and getting them into arms has been brilliant. 

So I feel that ye there was big mistakes in 2020 which were not good and really made the situation worse but at the same time no one knew how bad this was really going to get. Remember them saying this will all be over by Summer 2020 and deaths won't be above 20,000. 

We don't judge adults by 'how hard they try' in their working lives, we judge them by results. And that's in all fields of life, let alone the leader of 60million people who will be a multimillionaire with an incredibly comfortable life after his time in office.

And it's not true that no one knew how bad this was going to get. It was widely debated that there could be a worse second wave, as had been the history of pandemics. 

[StuMalinas]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

We don't judge adults by 'how hard they try' in their working lives, we judge them by results. And that's in all fields of life, let alone the leader of 60million people who will be a multimillionaire with an incredibly comfortable life after his time in office.

And it's not true that no one knew how bad this was going to get. It was widely debated that there could be a worse second wave, as had been the history of pandemics. 

I take your point but I don't think anyone could have predicted the Kent Variant which led to the third wave

[SwedgeAntilles]

11 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Pretty sure he said he was taking LSD and drinking today so probably best to ignore...

Must make this thread more tolerable tbf. 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

I take your point but I don't think anyone could have predicted the Kent Variant which led to the third wave

or christmas.

[MrBarry465]

13 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Pretty sure he said he was taking LSD and drinking today so probably best to ignore...

This guy knows! 

[incident]

5 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I was also wondering this the other day, the i paper said this last month:

The new vaccine should be available in the second half of 2021, if approved for use by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), the Government said.

Think the "second half" reference is a slight red herring. The Government certainly did say that the delivery (of 60 million doses) is due in the second half of the year - however all current indications are that (if approved) deliveries can/will start earlier than that, with Novavax themselves saying April.

[MrBarry465]

Speaking of 'variants' we are currently sipping on a fine irish whisky.

Im very curious to see if we as  a species actually manage to come together after this pandemic.

My guess is 'no'. Based on the number of people in this thread who would rather see the conomy firing and trabmple over everything else.

Edited February 21, 2021 by MrBarry465

[StuMalinas]

Just now, incident said:

Think the "second half" reference is a slight red herring. The Government certainly did say that the delivery (of 60 million doses) is due in the second half of the year - however all current indications are that (if approved) deliveries can/will start earlier than that, with Novavax themselves saying April.

have they submitted for approval yet?

[incident]

2 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

have they submitted for approval yet?

Don't know.

I know that they've publicly revealed (a lot) less data than we saw for Pfizer/Moderna/AZ, so I'm not expecting it to come in the next month or so - but then again it's certain that the regulators have data we don't.

Edited February 21, 2021 by incident

[StuMalinas]

Just now, incident said:

Don't know.

I know that they've publicly revealed (a lot) less data than we saw for Pfizer/Moderna/AZ, so I'm not expecting it to come in the next month or so - but then again it's possible that the regulators have data we don't.

so do you reakon by the time J and J comes around we won't actually need it given its coming in the second half of the year?

[xxialac]

1 hour ago, BobWillis said:

Once again you’re ignoring what I’m saying and it’s getting pretty tiresome. 
 

I said it makes sense to go slow until it’s clear that the vaccines are working in groups 1-4 by which point groups 5-9 will have had theirs too and will have the same level of protection which reduces severe disease and death by the numbers I provided. Wanting a normal life 4 months from now is not wanting a ‘free for all as soon as I’d like’ it’s about being measured until we have clear data that the vaccine rollout has been successful in those most at risk and then rapidly speeding up the roadmap while those much much less at risk are vaccinated. Anything else is being cautious for the sake of it. 

Point 1 - cases starting at a high point today - this is whataboutery. I’m not talking about speeding up loosening restrictions until April/May. 
Point 2 - Vaccines not 100% at stopping transmission - For a start that’s irrelevant if they prevent 98% of deaths by May, secondly if they don’t then what? Keep some restrictions until they can make a vaccine that does prevent transmission while deaths continue to be non existent? That would be insanity. 
Point 3 - some people won’t/can’t take the vaccine - herd immunity isn’t some crackpot theory that started last March. 
Point 4 - Schools reopening - not this again. 
Point 5 - risk of variations - we can’t stay in limbo until the whole world is vaccinated based on a what if scenario. Here’s a clue for you, if vaccine passports are being talked about as a means for brits to holiday abroad then this country is not going for a zero covid approach, therefore variants will always be in play. 

You were arguing that there should be no social distancing outdoors by June - "none of that socially distanced crap it’s outdoors" - based on the vaccine rollout. These were your words.

Whilst we all want that, it's not going to happen and it's no coincidence that the government does not agree with your timeframe and the scientists do not agree with you either.

There's a question as to whether logic is your thing but my point was that just because the UK isn't going for a zero covid strategy doesn't mean that it should take more risk that it has to on variants.

No one is arguing to be in limbo forever. But having lower cases until the vaccine programme is completed reduces the risk of a homegrown variation (which we've proven we're quite able to produce) that undermines the vaccination programme. So it makes sense to be cautious and keep the case numbers low by retaining some elements of social distancing by June and  banning packed mass events in June. This will also have the positive effect of limiting the detrimental health outcomes to the people who haven't had the vaccine, that would otherwise ensue, before we get to herd immunity. Deaths, hospitalisations, long covid etc.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by xxialac

[Homer]

1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

Does anyone know when they will allow sheep shearing again ? I need a bloody haircut soon ... 

My mate told me hairdressers and gyms (@Zoo Music Girl) on 14th March - what has everyone heard re what and when (not been on here for a few days)? 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

My mate told me hairdressers and gyms (@Zoo Music Girl) on 14th March - what has everyone heard re what and when (not been on here for a few days)? 

Non-essentially retail is April in the last leak I saw, potentially hairdressers might be slightly later, that was in The Sun though.

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

or christmas.

Or that fact that cases were already really high before the second lockdown started, were too high when it stopped and were clearly growing more quickly than expected within a week of it ending.  Yet they did nothing.

You didn't need a crystal ball to see that they messed up big time in December.

[Guest]

@StuMalinas You might find this helpful, it does relate to the US though - https://www.ft.com/content/ceebd562-7b50-427b-932f-40f2adfe5e26

[incident]

Just now, StuMalinas said:

so do you reakon by the time J and J comes around we won't actually need it given its coming in the second half of the year?

I'm sure we'll use some of it, as a single dose option that can be stored in regular fridges it's going to be good to have in regular pharmacies and GP surgeries as a long term thing - but in terms of the mass vaccination effort I don't think it gets used as there'll already be four available vaccines in wide circulation by that point. Once those four are available in sufficient quantity and we're nearing the end of the programme then the logisticals of adding in another one just becomes more hassle (even factoring in that it's a single dose).

My guess is that the bulk of our order gets redirected to COVAX or wherever and we keep back a million or so of J+J doses for the people who missed the initial rollouts.

[tigger123]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Does anyone know our total adult population? I have an excel sheet which suggests we'd pass 50m first doses on the 12th May, allowing for second doses kicking in from late March and using the Scottish Government projected supply. Note that this does not include any allowance for J&J and Novavax coming online.

[incident]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Does anyone know our total adult population? I have an excel sheet which suggests we'd pass 50m first doses on the 12th May, allowing for second doses kicking in from late March and using the Scottish Government projected supply. Note that this does not include any allowance for J&J and Novavax coming online.

According to the JCVI report about 6 weeks back, they're working to 52m as the number.

[JoeyT]

2 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

 

Beer before Primark.

Well in Boris!

[incident]

1 minute ago, incident said:

According to the JCVI report about 6 weeks back, they're working to 52m as the number.

Scratch that, I remembered wrong - 53m.

[BobWillis]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

You were arguing that there should be no social distancing outdoors by June - "none of that socially distanced crap it’s outdoors" - based on the vaccine rollout. These were your words.

Once again you’re being deliberately obtuse and not taking in anything I’ve said. 
No social distancing in June doesn’t mean no social distancing in March. 
 

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Whilst we all want that, it's not going to happen and it's no coincidence that the government does not agree with your timeframe and the scientists do not agree with you either.

Except for the members of sage who have come out and said the data looks so good the government could speed things up? 
 

7 minutes ago, xxialac said:

There's a question as to whether logic is your thing but my point was that just because the UK isn't going for a zero covid strategy doesn't mean that it should take more risk that it has to on variants.

No one is arguing to be in limbo forever. But having lower cases until the vaccine programme is completed reduces the risk of a homegrown variation (which we've proven we're quite able to produce) that undermines the vaccination programme. So it makes sense to be cautious and keep the case numbers low by retaining some elements of social distancing by June with no packed mass events. 

Trying to gaslight me because you can’t take in information presented to you? Classic. 
 

So far to our knowledge there hasn’t been a variant capable of causing severe disease and death in vaccinated people, so for the tenth time keeping restrictions based on what ifs is insanity. 
 

9 minutes ago, xxialac said:

 This will also limit the detrimental health outcomes to the people who haven't had the vaccine that would otherwise ensue. Deaths, hospitalisations, long covid etc.

I’ll keep repeating the important stats to you and hopefully one day they’ll go in. 
2% of deaths come from the under 50’s who will be protected by Easter.  

Do you have any stats on long covid? What percentage of infections lead to long covid? How many of these are in under 50’s?