Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[MrChip365]

Looks like there's about a 95% chance of it being cancelled. Based on the 4 stage process, the speed with which it is spreading (and will continue to spread) and the comparisons with Italy, they simply can not be seen to advocate 100s of thousands of people congregating in the same place at the same time.

Glastonbury 2020 RIP

[Mr.Tease]

5 hours ago, FakeEmpire said:

Cancelling it would be an absolute nonsense.  If they're cancelling Glastonbury then they're cancelling all similar events - festivals, gigs, sporting events etc.   It would be a disaster for the UK economy in Summer.  Surely things would have to be seriously bad for that to happen and all the science points to that not being the case.

It spreading more rapidly is more of an economic disaster - sick days plus self-isolation, plus overstretched health services, the festival is just a drop in the ocean in terms of the bigger picture economically, let alone in terms of mortality 

[squirrelarmy]

10 minutes ago, MrChip365 said:

Looks like there's about a 95% chance of it being cancelled. Based on the 4 stage process, the speed with which it is spreading (and will continue to spread) and the comparisons with Italy, they simply can not be seen to advocate 100s of thousands of people congregating in the same place at the same time.

Glastonbury 2020 RIP

Have you just made an account to post this? 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

12 minutes ago, MrChip365 said:

Looks like there's about a 95% chance of it being cancelled. Based on the 4 stage process, the speed with which it is spreading (and will continue to spread) and the comparisons with Italy, they simply can not be seen to advocate 100s of thousands of people congregating in the same place at the same time.

Glastonbury 2020 RIP

The only stage that could affect Glastonbury is the delay stage, which will only last for a specific period. That will likely start in the next few weeks, if it doesn’t start until say May then that will probably mean it’s curtains, but that in itself doesn’t make sense as it would mean the virus actually spread incredibly slowly if it takes that long.

The other stages are research and mitigate, which wouldn’t have any impact on Glastonbury.

[DeadAmos]

44 minutes ago, wilby-wilbert said:

Was just on thw radio.... 

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!! 

We know this already, now it's just a case of where , when and what of

Myself I am going to be immortal (or die trying to be)

[gizmoman]

2 hours ago, Funkyfairy! said:

Last week I voted 'of course it'll still happen' , in a week I either feel more educated or brainwashed and I'm not of the opinion that its50/50 - resigned and disappointed to the fact it may not go ahead. I do think it its cancelled then it'll be a cancellation - money back and its a level playing field again next year and tickets won't be carried over, it'll be classed as a cancellation not a postponement

I also think as the summer gets closer , if this keeps spreading at an alarming rate then there will be people pressure to stop it happening as well - and it may be seen as irresponsible ….. itf happens I'll be there, with bells on …. or a  scenario I've run through in my mind,  I'll be there for the  2 weeks before painting those bins, using my holiday  and all the site is built and then it'll get cancelled … the question is how early will they pull the plug if its going to be pulled  !

Not least from the locals who, let's not forget, live in a quiet affluent area and I suspect won't be too keen to have 200,000 people from all over the world, some of whom are 100% sure to be infected by then, bringing additional risk to the area, also the Eavis family all live locally, will Michael want to hold the festival if it increases the chances of his loved ones getting a deadly disease? Would you? Unless there is a major change in circumstances in the next 2-3 weeks (dramatic fall in infections, or realising the death rate is far lower than currently thought) then I can't see it going ahead.

[assorted]

15 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Not least from the locals who, let's not forget, live in a quiet affluent area and I suspect won't be too keen to have 200,000 people from all over the world, some of whom are 100% sure to be infected by then, bringing additional risk to the area, also the Eavis family all live locally, will Michael want to hold the festival if it increases the chances of his loved ones getting a deadly disease? Would you? Unless there is a major change in circumstances in the next 2-3 weeks (dramatic fall in infections, or realising the death rate is far lower than currently thought) then I can't see it going ahead.

“Loved ones getting a deadly disease” is the sorta soap opera language that belongs in the other thread.

The locals revoking the license is an interesting angle. But again if the festival makes it through April ticket payments then I don’t see the cancel decision coming until June. And by then I think hysterical language like the above will have settled down and even the locals will already have had the disease pass through (or no one will even know or care anymore because it went or is going everywhere already). And it’s a pretty big economic hit for the locals.

Also remember the government is already openly stating a plan that involves shutting down events (and everything else), and that plan likely ends well before Glastonbury starts.

[Joshuwarr]

45 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The only stage that could affect Glastonbury is the delay stage, which will only last for a specific period. That will likely start in the next few weeks, if it doesn’t start until say May then that will probably mean it’s curtains, but that in itself doesn’t make sense as it would mean the virus actually spread incredibly slowly if it takes that long.

The other stages are research and mitigate, which wouldn’t have any impact on Glastonbury.

I believe they said they "expect" the delay stage to begin in the next 10-14 days

[MrChip365]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

Have you just made an account to post this? 

No "squirrerlarmy", I have not.

[gizmoman]

30 minutes ago, assorted said:

“Loved ones getting a deadly disease” is the sorta soap opera language that belongs in the other thread.

The locals revoking the license is an interesting angle. But again if the festival makes it through April ticket payments then I don’t see the cancel decision coming until June. And by then I think hysterical language like the above will have settled down and even the locals will already have had the disease pass through (or no one will even know or care anymore because it went or is going everywhere already). And it’s a pretty big economic hit for the locals.

Also remember the government is already openly stating a plan that involves shutting down events (and everything else), and that plan likely ends well before Glastonbury starts.

It's emotive language but that doesn't mean it's wrong, if the death rate is around 1% which seems to be the best guess at the moment that is far worse than regular flu, we have only 3 deaths in the UK so far, things could improve but no one seems too confident it's going to get much better very quickly, the only way the festival could cancel in June is if the insurance would cover the costs, we don't know if that's the case or not. The usual attitude on here is not to trust a Tory government, strange how people are now having faith in them to sort this out and save the festival!

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

It's emotive language but that doesn't mean it's wrong, if the death rate is around 1% which seems to be the best guess at the moment that is far worse than regular flu, we have only 3 deaths in the UK so far, things could improve but no one seems too confident it's going to get much better very quickly, the only way the festival could cancel in June is if the insurance would cover the costs, we don't know if that's the case or not. The usual attitude on here is not to trust a Tory government, strange how people are now having faith in them to sort this out and save the festival!

I believe it's five deaths here now.

[gizmoman]

Yes 5 now and only 319 confirmed cases, sounds like a deadly disease to me.

[jj200]

23 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Yes 5 now and only 319 confirmed cases, sounds like a deadly disease to me.

From what I nocted the number of cases has been up and down 

[squirrelarmy]

20 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Yes 5 now and only 319 confirmed cases, sounds like a deadly disease to me.

319 cases that have presented symptoms bad enough to need testing. I think there’s about 25,000 people who have been tested. That’s over 24,500 people who have normal flu symptoms which aren’t corona. Are the media talking about that?
 

Many people will have it and have symptoms so mild they don’t actually need testing. More testing is being done over the next couple of days. The government has said that they will be running tests on anyone in hospital with a respiratory issue. Expect the number of cases to rise sharply in the next couple of days but we’ll get a better reflection of how widespread and how fatal the virus is.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

319 cases that have presented symptoms bad enough to need testing. I think there’s about 25,000 people who have been tested. That’s over 24,500 people who have normal flu symptoms which aren’t corona. Are the media talking about that?
 

Many people will have it and have symptoms so mild they don’t actually need testing. More testing is being done over the next couple of days. The government has said that they will be running tests on anyone in hospital with a respiratory issue. Expect the number of cases to rise sharply in the next couple of days but we’ll get a better reflection of how widespread and how fatal the virus is.

Surely it’s not need testing, but rather never realised they had it so didn’t consider getting tested? This is why it’s going to be pretty much impossible to stop, because there will be tons of people who have it, or have had it without realising who then unknowingly pass it on to others for whom it might be a lot more serious. 

[Mr.Tease]

36 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Yes 5 now and only 319 confirmed cases, sounds like a deadly disease to me.

The guardian said that in China the mortality rate for over 80s with the virus is 20%, that’s pretty horrific.

[gizmoman]

It's still early days and there are a lot of if's and but's to consider, that's why I think another 2 or 3 weeks will be needed before the festival start to consider their position, at that point things should be a bit clearer, let's hope the media have over hyped this and it's not as bad as it seems. (the financial markets are pretty pessimistic though).

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

The guardian said that in China the mortality rate for over 80s with the virus is 20%, that’s pretty horrific.

Globally it’s 15% I think

[Mackem]

3 hours ago, gizmoman said:

also the Eavis family all live locally, will Michael want to hold the festival if it increases the chances of his loved ones getting a deadly disease?

Christ - I hadn't thought about Michael ... he's 85! The last thing we want is for him to catch it ...

Also Macca .... !

Edited March 9, 2020 by Mackem

[guypjfreak]

5 hours ago, wilby-wilbert said:

Was just on thw radio.... 

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!! 

Well let's hope its at fucking glastonbury old son 

[stuartbert two hats]

41 minutes ago, guypjfreak said:

Well let's hope its at fucking glastonbury old son 

Although preferably not in a portaloo!

[stuartbert two hats]

11 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

Doesn't the festival form a different company each year for tax purposes? Would holding deposits for a year mess with that? 

They've stopped doing that.  I can't remember when, maybe 5 or 6 years ago.

[MetaKate]

6 hours ago, Mackem said:

Christ - I hadn't thought about Michael ... he's 85! The last thing we want is for him to catch it ...

Also Macca .... !

YOUVE GONE TOO FAR SIR. 

[plot2pot]

7 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

They've stopped doing that.  I can't remember when, maybe 5 or 6 years ago.

They've used the same company since 2002 but renamed it every year to "GLASTONBURY FESTIVAL xxxx LIMITED".  They stopped bothering after the 2016 festival so since then it's just been called "GLASTONBURY FESTIVAL EVENTS LIMITED".

[guypjfreak]

9 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Although preferably not in a portaloo!

Lol yes old son.. Mind you there might be the odd loo roll to be had... 

On the loo roll issue at this rate glastonbury might be a cancelled due to the lack of loo rolls lol. 

Stay safe stu old son 

Edited March 10, 2020 by guypjfreak