Oh no - another festival right after the election!

[HalfAnIdiot]

1 hour ago, musky said:

I'm taking the calling of a snap election as confirmation that TM has a brexit deal in mind that will absolutely hammer the poor.

Previously she had refused to call an election on pragmatic grounds, that it would undermine the negotiations. Now she's talking in terms of opposition within Parliament undermining the brexit talks. With an overall majority within Parliament she must be expecting a fair amount of dissent from within the Conservatives to need to strengthen her hand. Her change of mind is probably less the result of a walk in the countryside with her husband and more the upshot of comparing the list of probable dissenters to one of who is likely to lose their seat.

I think this is a little wide of the mark. Her current slim majority makes her hostage to the hard right brexiteers, an increased  a majority will weaken thier influence and give her a wider as scope for negotiation.

Edited April 18, 2017 by HalfAnIdiot
Typo

[robillustrates]

Well at least the outcome to this one is pretty obvious. 

Though the margins and details will be the interesting part of all this. 

How will Labour perform in general, can the Lib Dems make gains, will the SNP lose any ground in Scotland. Is UKIP as good as finished. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, philipsteak said:

I dunno, there's a part of me that's a little relieved that my vote isn't worth much (Tim Farron is my MP, dropped a little last time but still well liked enough locally to ride out the Libdemaggedon.) because I genuinely don't know what to do with it this time.  

Whoever has the best chance of beating the Tories, vote for them. No exceptions other than UKIP.

Edited April 18, 2017 by stuartbert two hats
An exception

[CaledonianGonzo]

One maybe minor, maybe major outcome is that it scuppers things for Arron Banks's Patriotic Alliance in 2020.

Though maybe it just gives them more time to get their act together.

[Jamie D]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Whoever has the best chance of beating the Tories, vote for them. No exceptions other than UKIP.

That's exactly my issue right there. My constituency (which includes Sandbanks) is a Tory strong hold with UKIP being the only party getting anywhere near them.

Labour and Lib Dems had 1 point between them. Personally I think Lib Dems will have the best chance this time round and tbh I feel slightly more aligned with them than Labour. Just a shame all the fuckers in their mansions are going to vote Tory.

I don't think this election is going to have much of an effect on the festival unless a Tory landslide results in an immediate announcement of a terrible Brexit deal that fucks over most of the country.

 

[Wanderlei]

The media has tried to destroy Corbyn, but his common sense policies are undeniable.

[Purple aki squat]

The amount of ammunition any opposing party have on the tories will hopefully lead to a correction in this country. Ignored manifesto promises, bent electioneering and the fact the shithouses who lied through their teeth during the EU referendum scurried away like the rats they are. Surely the majority vote for that group of spineless self seeking bastards cannot increase?

 

Yeah, I know.

[robillustrates]

Corbyn's been so quiet and accepting lately, when he should be leading and landing shots on the plot holes in the Conservative plans, it's like he's barely there lately. 

[Jamie D]

6 minutes ago, Purple aki squat said:

 Surely the majority vote for that group of spineless self seeking bastards cannot increase?

Unfortunately the population is getting older and old people like to sit at home reading the Daily Mail and worry about foreign people devaluing the price of their house.

The ones I know do anyway.

[Gnomicide]

I waver between Lib Dem and Labour, at heart I'm Lib Dem but know they have little chance of getting in where I live. Last time I went Labour who narrowly ousted the hideous Esther McVey. I liked the candidate and all seemed ok.

But I'm seriously pissed off with the stance over Brexit. We are one of the few areas in the north that voted remain. We have 4 labour MPs yet everyone of them bent over and voted to trigger article 50. If nothing else, I can look forward to a few interesting door step conversations. 

[musky]

31 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

I think this is a little wide of the mark. Her current slim majority makes her hostage to the hard right brexiteers, an increased  a majority will weaken thier insurance and give her a wider as scope for negotiation.

You could be right, and it's something I hadn't considered. The prospect of Hard line brexiteers sharing the lobby with the SNP, the Lib Dems and much of Labour seems bizarre but politics makes for strange bedfellows.

Whatever the thinking behind the snap election, it's sure to be the result of careful analysis of the likely voting habits of incumbent MPs and those who are likely to replace them. A carefully calculated risk.

[billum]

3 hours ago, H.M.V said:

Minimum donation of a tenner on that site so cant get any further for information. What's the deal? 

Oh really? Sorry for that. In marginal seats they crowd-source who is the most likely moderate candidate to beat the tories (or UKIP or those-whom-we-dare-not-speak-of), and then corrall funds and people to canvas for and support those candidates, sometimes even persuading the other moderate candidates to stand aside so as not to split the vote. This helped Labout win against Nuttall (UKIP) in Stoke-on-Trent in Feb. Organised tactical voting, really! But they've got some very good people behind the movement too, and I like them!

[eastynh]

3 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

problem with my area is the opposite is true, labour didnt even bother at the last election, certainly never got any pr from them, tory strong seat, we have a lot of selfish pensioners down here in cornwall who dont care about anything other then their own property prices being protected and stupid enough to believe sheryl murray when she tells them she gives a shit

We can always swap. I would happily move to Cornwall and you can move to Manchester 

[zero000]

1 hour ago, Martin Ashford said:

I'm running as a Labour Community Councillor on May 4th. I've been out canvassing regularly for five weeks now  I can tell you that only ONE person has brought up Corbyn as a negative factor. Support for Labour remains strong in an area that is being actively targeted by the Tories because it is relatively affluent compared to neighbouring wards. I was expecting a roasting and I have been pleasantly surprised. The Media have constantly painted a misleading picture because they are terrified of a politician that cannot be bought running the country. The Polling companies are run by Tories - don't believe a word of it. Labour are NOT a spent force. Get out there and spread the word. Put an end To May in June.

Call me a cynic, but a 20 point margin of error is colossal even for the polling companies. It's going to be a Tory landslide come June.

[oneeye]

[Purple aki squat]

51 minutes ago, Jamie D said:

Unfortunately the population is getting older and old people like to sit at home reading the Daily Mail and worry about foreign people devaluing the price of their house.

The ones I know do anyway.

They must use the NHS and realise the damage being done. You are right about the mail

[arcade fireman]

1 hour ago, Martin Ashford said:

I'm running as a Labour Community Councillor on May 4th. I've been out canvassing regularly for five weeks now  I can tell you that only ONE person has brought up Corbyn as a negative factor. Support for Labour remains strong in an area that is being actively targeted by the Tories because it is relatively affluent compared to neighbouring wards. I was expecting a roasting and I have been pleasantly surprised. The Media have constantly painted a misleading picture because they are terrified of a politician that cannot be bought running the country. The Polling companies are run by Tories - don't believe a word of it. Labour are NOT a spent force. Get out there and spread the word. Put an end To May in June.

It's great to see you going out there, getting up and being actively involved in the democratic process rather than the rest of us carping from the sidelines. That said, you are going to be horribly, horribly disappointed come June 9th. I wish this wasn't the case, but it is. 

Edited April 18, 2017 by arcade fireman

[arcade fireman]

As far as I'm concerned 2020 was going to be a landslide defeat for Labour. Almost every single piece of evidence out there pointed to it.

So this just brings the inevitable three years early. This might not be quite as bad in fact. Turnout probably will be lower than a regular general election which usually benefits opposition parties, and this will probably save some seats for Labour. The current state of play with Brexit will probably allow the Lib Dems to take some seats off the Tories in the South West and in other affluent but liberal places where they're currently second place to the Tories. 

And it will mean that Labour have a genuine opportunity to get a leader the electorate takes seriously, rather than someone who 500,000 Labour members idolise and most others think very little of. The challenge last year was a terrible idea, Corbyn's leadership was doomed to failure from the start but trying to suffocate it after less than a year was always going to provoke a reaction. As things stood before today Labour were going to hobble on until 2020 and then suffer a defeat so bad that even 2025 would be an uphill struggle, and with a leader likely inextricably linked to Corbyn after John McDonnell and friends changed the rules at Labour conference this September. 

Get Keir Starmer in as Labour leader, allow him to a appoint a shadow front bench from across the party. Let's have some smarts leading Labour rather than the current circus. 

Edited April 18, 2017 by arcade fireman

[Waapster]

2 hours ago, Martin Ashford said:

I'm running as a Labour Community Councillor on May 4th. I've been out canvassing regularly for five weeks now  I can tell you that only ONE person has brought up Corbyn as a negative factor. Support for Labour remains strong in an area that is being actively targeted by the Tories because it is relatively affluent compared to neighbouring wards. I was expecting a roasting and I have been pleasantly surprised. The Media have constantly painted a misleading picture because they are terrified of a politician that cannot be bought running the country. The Polling companies are run by Tories - don't believe a word of it. Labour are NOT a spent force. Get out there and spread the word. Put an end To May in June.

Utter bullshit, often used by Corbynites to explain away his unpopularity. I'm on your side Martin, I was a party member for 37 years and I served as a Labour councillor in a London borough. I tore up my card and sent to to Jezza the day he whipped the party to support moving A50. He is destroying our party.

In my professional life I work with, but not for, polling companies. You'd be surprised at the range of people running them. Yougov was started by Peter Kellner, hardly a Tory. Ipsos Mori has Ben Page and I don't know his allegiance but I'd be staggered if he's a Tory. And most of their work is commercial, they would soon go out of business if they distorted polling to suit an agenda. The simple fact is Jeremy Corbyn's Labour is massively unpopular. As somebody who joined at 17, this hugely saddens me.

I hope you win in May. Thanks for standing. But the party is regally fucked.

Best, Waap.

[arcade fireman]

17 minutes ago, Waapster said:

Utter bullshit, often used by Corbynites to explain away his unpopularity. I'm on your side Martin, I was a party member for 37 years and I served as a Labour councillor in a London borough. I tore up my card and sent to to Jezza the day he whipped the party to support moving A50. He is destroying our party.

In my professional life I work with, but not for, polling companies. You'd be surprised at the range of people running them. Yougov was started by Peter Kellner, hardly a Tory. Ipsos Mori has Ben Page and I don't know his allegiance but I'd be staggered if he's a Tory. And most of their work is commercial, they would soon go out of business if they distorted polling to suit an agenda. The simple fact is Jeremy Corbyn's Labour is massively unpopular. As somebody who joined at 17, this hugely saddens me.

I hope you win in May. Thanks for standing. But the party is regally fucked.

Best, Waap.

Exactly. I despair at how so much of the left has gone away from reason and logic and moved onto the alternative facts reminiscent of Trump, Spicer et al. Just because it comes from the same political side as me it doesn't make it less infuriating, indeed it makes it more so.

The polls were maximum 3-4% out most of the time and usually overestimated the Labour/left wing vote. I doubt the final result will be as high as 20% difference in the popular vote and I suspect they'll narrow to an extent, but Labour are on a hiding to nothing. Really hope this will finally flush out Corbyn and his team and restore a semblance of competence back to Labour. 

Edited April 18, 2017 by arcade fireman

[Alex DeLarge]

I think the picture will remain about the same, with the Tories winning a couple of Labour seats in strong Leave areas but hopefully this will be balanced out by pre-2015 Lib-Dem seats being re-taken. The problem that exists though is that most people who oppose austerity, the NHS being wrecked, arms sales to Saudi Arabia etc. are probably already voting for Labour, Lib-Dem, Green or SNP and Corbyn and Farron really need to make some attempt now to speak to the voters about issues they're genuinely concerned about and have issues that could be solved, instead of just shouting them down again.

[Waapster]

1 minute ago, Alex DeLarge said:

I think the picture will remain about the same, with the Tories winning a couple of Labour seats in strong Leave areas but hopefully this will be balanced out by pre-2015 Lib-Dem seats being re-taken. The problem that exists though is that most people who oppose austerity, the NHS being wrecked, arms sales to Saudi Arabia etc. are probably already voting for Labour, Lib-Dem, Green or SNP and Corbyn and Farron really need to make some attempt now to speak to the voters about issues they're genuinely concerned about and have issues that could be solved, instead of just shouting them down again.

Alex, I don't know if you are a gambler but I'd have a flutter with you that the Tories will take more than "a couple" of Labour seats. I'd go for 40 - 60 as realistic. For all those important issues, this will, in my view, be a Brexit election. Labour lacks a coherent pitch to the public on the key issue.

[arcade fireman]

Yeah Labour will be lucky to get away with 40 seats lost. That said I expect the Lib Dems to take 10 or so Tory seats, there's a few natural Lib Dem heartlands who punished them at the last election and will welcome them back with open arms post Brexit. 

There is the potential for an absolute landslide to be avoided and for Labour to become a threat for 2022, at least to create a hung Parliament at that point and this is what Labour should be fighting for. Jeremy Corbyn as PM is a non-starter, but if Labour lose 80 or so seats then 2027 will be the earliest possible time for a Labour government. 

Edited April 18, 2017 by arcade fireman

[Alex DeLarge]

2 minutes ago, Waapster said:

Alex, I don't know if you are a gambler but I'd have a flutter with you that the Tories will take more than "a couple" of Labour seats. I'd go for 40 - 60 as realistic. For all those important issues, this will, in my view, be a Brexit election. Labour lacks a coherent pitch to the public on the key issue.

Yeah, you're right, sorry I don't know why I said a couple instead of many. 

Labour's problem is that remain voters are seeing them as voting with Theresa May on everything and they're perceived as weak, whereas leave voters will just support May or UKIP until Brexit has fully been achieved and they see Labour as elitist, staunch remainers etc. I don't know what the solution is either, they are in a real pickle right now.

[Waapster]

2 minutes ago, Alex DeLarge said:

Yeah, you're right, sorry I don't know why I said a couple instead of many. 

Labour's problem is that remain voters are seeing them as voting with Theresa May on everything and they're perceived as weak, whereas leave voters will just support May or UKIP until Brexit has fully been achieved and they see Labour as elitist, staunch remainers etc. I don't know what the solution is either, they are in a real pickle right now.

Pretty much agree. Happy to discuss over a friendly pint on the farm when we know how it went...