This morning...

[Spindles]

Just now, Homer said:

Piss off.

+1

If you honestly believe this is healthy informed debate....well, I dread to think what it is being compared to.

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, somecoolusername said:

Oh my god are you my next door neighbour? This is freaky. 

 

16 minutes ago, somecoolusername said:

it's coming from inside the house 

can you two get a room? Oh, it looks like you already have.

According to my tools here (not foolproof, I know) you're posting from the same postcode area.

 

[The Nal]

Obama welcoming Trump to the White Today. Utterly unbelievable stuff. We're looking at something that will be discussed and studied for millennia. I'd say Obama is still in shock.

And Trump will be lapping it up. 

 

[GlastoSimon]

What still confuses me now is why the white female vote went to Trump. Uneducated, educated - he had a significant share of their vote.

I wasn't a fan of 'vote Hillary because she's a woman', never have been a fan of that approach, but when Trump's comments came out I thought that killed the female vote for him. Very odd.

[Rose-Colored Boy]

34 minutes ago, Untz said:

What if they hated Hillary just as much as they hated Trump?

 

Well of course, there's no excusing naivity, especially when the parties do nothing to counter it - Hillary clearly no idea what failing to distance herself from Iraq, and failing to put up a convincing enough fight against the email farce, was doing to her chances. I'm not trying to make excuses for her.

 

34 minutes ago, Untz said:

 

I would also presume that a lot of Libertarians would align more naturally with the Republicans than the Dems.

Probably, but it could still have led to a very different result if their hatred of Trump had really been put to the test and they hadn't had a 'cop out' option. All those leading Republican figures, including previous presidents, who took a stand against Trump, coming out and saying they were backing Hillary rather than Gary Johnson would have been quite the sight.

26 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

ultimately - whether you like it or not - a vote in the UK for a 'left' party that has no hope of winning that seat helps enfranchise the right.

It's one of the many bad consequences of our electoral system, but that's the only electoral system we have to work with unless there's enough support for change - which there doesn't appear to be,. based on the AV ref

So really, there are no new parties, no challenges.

Movements are something else, that can happen away from the main parties. It's why, for example, we now have equal gay rights, which wasn't something particularly party-driven but evolved pretty much by itself within society away from those parties, an idea whose time had come - so much so that it was the tories who took the final step that was considered a step too far by the supposedly 'progressive' Labour party.

We get no change with this unless we change the voting system.

Quite.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Zac Quinn

[DeanoL]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Did they? Oh has this just become an easy stick to beat them with, another version of 'stupid'?

You and me knew what the lies were. Might it be the case that other people did too, but their opinion was on the other side to yours?

(just to be clear, I don't doubt there were some morons on both sides who swallowed some bullshit, but the mass-stupid angle is a difficult one to make stand up).

I think for me the point is that the, yes, less "intelligient" (people who don't see the lies, or simply don't want to see the lies) on both sides will have been connned. It only takes 5% of those voters to have given us an entierly different result. And yes, some people were misled by the Remain side too, but it seems clear Leave's lies were bigger, and would have had a larger effect.

Perhaps Remain should have actually lied bigger themselves, and they started too by the end of the campaign but it was too late.

3 hours ago, Keithy said:

Micheal Moore on twitter yesterday

He tricked millions of people to vote for him. Tricked? perhaps, just perhaps, you should consider the alternative to your view that the poor, dumb proletariat were tricked by a cunning, manipulative Trump and need to be saved. Perhaps huge swathes of the electorate feel the current political landscape isn't working for them, that they are forgotten about. They've not felt any recovery from 2008, that they long for a better future, they see their town with it's boarded up shops, the levels of inequality, the corruption that runs through central and local government and then look at the two candidates and think "this isn't working for me, voting for the same will produce the same. The alternative may be better, may be worse but I know I'll still be left behind if I vote for the same". Perhaps the 58m have sat and thought about it, rationalised Trumps faults against Clinton's faults, perhaps thought "I don't particularly like either candidate but I dislike Hilary more and Trump will moderate his views in power".

But no, 58m are thick, stupid sexists.
 

I agree in general but worth noting that regarding Moore specifically, his Trumpland documentary basically says exactly what you're saying, he's just making the point that Trump isn't going to actually change things for those people, hence "tricked". He's not actually going to be able to, for example, bring back the manufacturing industry to thsoe near-ghost towns.

I read something quite good the other day: "Trump's critics took him literally but not seriously. His supporters took him seriously but not literally".

More generally, for all the lefties on here, if Trump were the leader of the Labour party, and had Labour policies, but was the same awful racist, misogynist, idiotic guy, would you vote Tory? Because that's the choice a lot of Americans were given. The Republican base stuck wth him because a Democrat getting in would be far worse. Meanwhile Trump engaged a portion of the electorate that doesn't normally vote and between his campaign and Hilary being, well, herself, enough of the Democrat base were put off voting entirely or went for third parties. Especially as we were all told Trump had no chance of winning.

(Incidently, he's followed the path that I've previously argued Corbyn could win a UK election with)

 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

its like with trump...people making him out to be this anti establishment, rebel against the political order.......now.how the fuck is donald trump anti establishment? hes a fucking billionaire businessman! he didnt do that on the fucking black market now either did he? hell if it wasnt for a bit of help and the breaks hes no doubt had at times from these politicians he wouldnt have made his fortune! do you think hes got where he is without being involved in any lobbying, backhanders etc? dont make me laugh!

Similar to (on a small scale) when people claim nigel farage the stockbrokers son whos spent his entire life in business or politics never held down a blue collor job in his life and now sits there with a big fat eu expense account while doing fuck all to earn it........is some kind of working class hero!

FUCK ME PEOPLE ARE STUPID!

what you've missed is that Trump is not the POLITICAL establishment.

'The people' (in the US, at least) don't feel let down by billionaires, they feel let down by politicians.

One of Trump's themes has been to clear out the corrupt in Washington. Whether he follows thru is yet to be seen, but it's an appealing idea.

It's much the same as those people who voted brexit to kick pigfucker Dave out, while feeling that in or out of the EU wouldn't matter a fuck to them.

It's the same thing about 'the political establishment' rather than (just) 'the establishment' that gives Farage part of his edge to some people. The meme "all politicians are the same" is well established, and further adds to Farage's appeal.

 

[alibear]

27 minutes ago, somecoolusername said:

Oh my god are you my next door neighbour? This is freaky. 

My friends used to rent a house right next to the Sun in the Sands roundabout - I lost many an evening partying there. I can't believe how many efesters live in such close proximity!

[Rose-Colored Boy]

2 minutes ago, GlastoSimon said:

What still confuses me now is why the white female vote went to Trump. Uneducated, educated - he had a significant share of their vote.

I wasn't a fan of 'vote Hillary because she's a woman', never have been a fan of that approach, but when Trump's comments came out I thought that killed the female vote for him. Very odd.

Don't forget just how conservative some parts of America are. Some white women in some parts of the country I've met whilst out there still believe they shouldn't even be allowed to vote, so him talking like a sexist monster rooted in the 1950's would have if anything appealed to them.

[DeanoL]

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

A nice post that i mostly agree with, but i think you go a bit off course at the end.

It's not the case - certainly not on average - that people's lives in the USA are materially worse over the last ten years. The USA has ridden this side of the crash much better than us (in part because they took a hit around 2000, while Labour spent it's way out of what would have otherwise been a recession).

Rather than 'lives being materially worse', it's a bit more about power shifts. Once upon a time the white american had it all on a plate for them, as they were top of the social tree. With the opportunities now more evenly shared around, the opportunities for the 'white american' are reduced, and it's that loss that they feel is the worsening of their lives.

Thanks - I've been trying to make that point to a few "sky is falling" people today. Trump is a result of significant social progress being made. He's the backlash. He's not an indication that we're going backwards, he's the inevitable dying breath of a group that won't be large enough to win an election in ten years.

[alibear]

24 minutes ago, russycarps said:

what's that sun in the sands pub like? I'm quite a way away from you guys, nearer catford/lewisham town

Pretty quiet - I've only been because my friend's dad plays in a covers band there. So I guess the live music isn't bad!

[Homer]

3 minutes ago, alibear said:

My friends used to rent a house right next to the Sun in the Sands roundabout - I lost many an evening partying there. I can't believe how many efesters live in such close proximity!

I used to live in Blackheath Standard too.

[alibear]

Just now, Homer said:

I used to live in Blackheath Standard too.

I'm in Lee Green - about a mile and a half away.

[Untz]

4 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

now.how the fuck is donald trump anti establishment?

Not saying he's anti-establishment, but he's a political outsider who says things normal politicians wouldn't dare to say. He was also running against Clinton who could even make the Royal Family look anti-establishment. He just doesn't act like a normal politician so people don't see him as one.

2 minutes ago, Zac Quinn said:

Probably, but it could have led to a very different result if their hatred of Trump had really been put to the test and they hadn't had a 'cop out' option. All those leading Republican figures, including previous presidents, who took a stand against Trump, coming out and saying they were backing Hillary rather than Gary Johnson would have been quite the sight.

Or they might have not bothered to vote or spoiled their ballot or written in some ridiculous name. Those Republicans would never have backed Hillary/the Democrats. They probably would have reluctantly backed Trump or just kept quiet. I think you underestimate how much some people hate Hillary/the Democrats.

[Homer]

Just now, alibear said:

I'm in Lee Green - about a mile and a half away.

I've driven through there - true story.

[Spindles]

Just now, Homer said:

I've driven through there - true story.

Cool story.  Tell it again.

[alibear]

4 minutes ago, Homer said:

I've driven through there - true story.

You lucky man!

[Rose-Colored Boy]

19 minutes ago, Untz said:

Not saying he's anti-establishment, but he's a political outsider who says things normal politicians wouldn't dare to say. He was also running against Clinton who could even make the Royal Family look anti-establishment. He just doesn't act like a normal politician so people don't see him as one.

Or they might have not bothered to vote or spoiled their ballot or written in some ridiculous name. Those Republicans would never have backed Hillary/the Democrats. They probably would have reluctantly backed Trump or just kept quiet. I think you underestimate how much some people hate Hillary/the Democrats.

Fair enough. Even the Green vote going all Hillary would've made a huge difference, though, and she could definitely have won most of that if she'd managed to remove the Iraq/email scandal/corruption/murder millstones from around her neck.

Could, though, not would. As I say, I'm not trying to make excuses for her. Her biggest mistake was and will always be becoming too complacent that the minority voters Obama won would remain Democrat, especially with Trump on the other side. More Hispanics voted for Trump than for Romney! But it all contributes.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Zac Quinn

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, GlastoSimon said:

What still confuses me now is why the white female vote went to Trump. Uneducated, educated - he had a significant share of their vote.

I wasn't a fan of 'vote Hillary because she's a woman', never have been a fan of that approach, but when Trump's comments came out I thought that killed the female vote for him. Very odd.

All candidates and policy platforms are flawed. It's unlikely any person would ever agree with everything.

So what a person ends up doing is voting for the least objectionable candidate rather than the most preferred.

Within my first minute of starting to take an interest in the US elections about 3 months ago, I saw just how hated Clinton was even by people who'd voted Democrat all their lives. It was never going to be an easy win for her, no matter how dreadful her opponent was.

[russycarps]

15 minutes ago, GlastoSimon said:

What still confuses me now is why the white female vote went to Trump. Uneducated, educated - he had a significant share of their vote.

I wasn't a fan of 'vote Hillary because she's a woman', never have been a fan of that approach, but when Trump's comments came out I thought that killed the female vote for him. Very odd.

sadly the idea that all women are part of some kind of a sisterhood who all look out for each other couldnt be further from the truth!

 

[waterfalls212434]

13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

what you've missed is that Trump is not the POLITICAL establishment.

'The people' (in the US, at least) don't feel let down by billionaires, they feel let down by politicians.

One of Trump's themes has been to clear out the corrupt in Washington. Whether he follows thru is yet to be seen, but it's an appealing idea.

It's much the same as those people who voted brexit to kick pigfucker Dave out, while feeling that in or out of the EU wouldn't matter a fuck to them.

It's the same thing about 'the political establishment' rather than (just) 'the establishment' that gives Farage part of his edge to some people. The meme "all politicians are the same" is well established, and further adds to Farage's appeal.

 

yeah your right trump has nothing to do with the political establishment....he detests it....ill just leave this here

(credit to another angry voice a very good blog I suggest you all check out, has some very good opinion on the issues.)

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/who-is-to-blame-for-president-trump.html

Edited November 10, 2016 by waterfalls212434

[Quark]

23 minutes ago, Homer said:

Piss off.

Love you too

21 minutes ago, Spindles said:

+1

If you honestly believe this is healthy informed debate....well, I dread to think what it is being compared to.

Clearly you've never tried having a discussion about politics with my family.  It's caused more Christmas arguments than Monopoly and Risk combined.

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think for me the point is that the, yes, less "intelligient" (people who don't see the lies, or simply don't want to see the lies) on both sides will have been connned. It only takes 5% of those voters to have given us an entierly different result. And yes, some people were misled by the Remain side too, but it seems clear Leave's lies were bigger, and would have had a larger effect.

I still don't buy it.

You can (as an example) find the odd post online from a person who believed the "£350m for the NHS" thing, but has anyone ever actually met someone who believed it*?
(* that's a different thing to perhaps having had someone say it towards you as an attempt to influence you).

I'd say nearly everyone had made up their minds before the campaign even started, and the change in what the polls showed in the last few days was more about people realising it was OK to say they were voting out than it was about changed minds.

I don't doubt that lies from the papers over the longer-term played a big part, but whether or not someone was wise to them was more about how much interest they took in the subject of the EU than the intelligence they had to apply to the subject.
 

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

yeah your right trump has nothing to do with the political establishment....he detests it....ill just leave this here

as you know yourself, you've changed what I said which was true into something else that i didn't say.

18 months ago, if you'd asked just about anyone what Trump was about, you'd hear 'billionaire', 'property', and 'the apprentice' but it's hugely unlikely you'd have heard him tied to anything political-system or political-establishment.

(yes, he might have said a few things that politics could be tied to, but that's no different to anyone else).

In joe-public's terms, he's not political establishment.

The fact that he's considered successful is something else. That puts him within 'the establishment' but not 'the political establishment', but that's always going to come with an 'outsider' like Trump for President, cos Americans (in particular*) aren't the types who'd go for someone like that who wasn't already thought of as hugely successful.

*Which i've got to say is probably the much smarter take than the British thing of Farage, a small-time success on someone else's payroll and a nine-times loser at elections.

 

[Harry49]

44 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

A nice post that i mostly agree with, but i think you go a bit off course at the end.

It's not the case - certainly not on average - that people's lives in the USA are materially worse over the last ten years. The USA has ridden this side of the crash much better than us (in part because they took a hit around 2000, while Labour spent it's way out of what would have otherwise been a recession).

Rather than 'lives being materially worse', it's a bit more about power shifts. Once upon a time the white american had it all on a plate for them, as they were top of the social tree. With the opportunities now more evenly shared around, the opportunities for the 'white american' are reduced, and it's that loss that they feel is the worsening of their lives.

Economists are about as reliable as politicians but here are two views that would reflect "materially". but i am sure with a little more Googling time I could find two articles to counter them.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-average-income-in-usa-family-household-history-3306189?utm_term=average+income+middle+class&utm_content=p1-main-2-title&utm_medium=sem&utm_source=msn_s&utm_campaign=adid-89d4e973-e742-45bf-a154-2117212e3b2b-0-ab_msb_ocode-28805&ad=semD&an=msn_s&am=broad&q=average+income+middle+class&o=28805&qsrc=999&l=sem&askid=89d4e973-e742-45bf-a154-2117212e3b2b-0-ab_msb

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2016/04/23/lost-dream-90-of-americans-are-worse-off-today-than-they-were-in-the-early-1970s/#7e04b0585dde

You are definately correct about the shift of economic power within the USA from White to Non white, this is of course is reflected in immigration being such a hot topic. Here in the UK as well!