Weather 2016

[Jsmooth]

I think the most accurate source is this one http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/events/glastonbury-festival (I am bias as it's rather favourable.

[gherkin8r]

We are arriving about 8.30 on thursday morning so that netweather forecast is not good.

[Teddington]

I think there needs to be a reality check.

1. The ground will churn once the masses turn up.  Expect a mud fest and prepare for the worst. 

2. Yes the festival is so much better when everything is dry. 

 

Accept that and move on.  On the plus side it's going to be warm and warm and wet is so much better than cold and wet!

 

[big__phil]

3 minutes ago, jmzparky said:

Who was there in 2005? -  I decided in my stupid 19 year old student wisdom that a £10 - 2 man tent from asda for me and my 6ft2 mate to stay in with some flipflops and 24 cans of carlsberg was the only stuff we needed..... Cue  "The Apocalypse" on the Friday morning - 6 hours of absolutely torrential downpour!   So after vacating my tent with now added "waterbed" feature, strapped some plastic bags to my legs with cellotape  (which lastest about 30 seconds) - and i just wanted to go home!

But, my obersvations are - when so many people are walking on the mud/puddles, if it shines like its predicted to later on, the mud gets turned over so quickly and exposed to the heat of the sun before you know it - its dried up.  So even in 2005 despite the ridiculous amount of rain and not much sun... it was miles better come the saturday.

The weather reports are changing that frequenty i wouldn't worry about it. Trust me, you won't give a toss when your off your face on saurday night smashing it up in "Shangs".

Cracking first post. I like you already.

[Thunderstruck]

The rain at the moment is in the form of showers, these are not predicted to be too bad, so shouldn't amount to much. There may be some breaks in the cloud later today to help dry things out a bit.

Tonight an area of rain slides north eastwards, with the potential for ~ 5mm or so of rain on site. There's still some disagreement in the position of this - some models take this band further East keeping the site mainly dry, others run it over the top producing about 5mm. 

Wednesday

A damp start with fair bit of cloud around, but there's a chance of some hazy brightness/sunshine in the afternoon. Any breaks in the cloud could see temperatures into the low 20s, but even with cloud it will feel increasingly warm and humid, particularly with the very light winds forecast - excellent tent pitching conditions if it remains dry! There is a chance of a thin line of heavy showers developing in the afternoon, At the moment this is positioned to our West, but this is obviously uncertain and I think there is a sig. chance of at least some showery activity during the afternoon.

Overnight it will remain fairly warm and humid. At the moment it looks like the site will remain dry but there will be quite severe storms starting to fire over N France running into the SE of England by dawn. These bring the potential for extremely high local rainfall totals in excess of 50mm in a 3 hour period.

Thursday

looks warm and muggy, with a fair bit of cloud around, but probably the warmest day of the festival with temperatures in the low-mid 20s, particularly with any sunshine. It is likely to remain dry.

At this point the forecast becomes pretty complicated due to the heat and humidity that has built from the South.

What's likely again are some severe thunderstorms moving up from N France into the South East bringing very high rainfall totals. 

Friday

The trend of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing continues as fresher air moves in from the west, but the worst activity is not currently forecast to impact Glastonbury festival - but there's not agreement on this and it's certainly a possibility that we could experience some very heavy showers/thunderstorms during the Friday period interspersed with warm sunshine. Max temps ~ 18c, feeling fresher.

Saturday

Sunshine, with lower risk of showers - probably quite a nice day, max temp ~ 19c

Sunday

Warmer air is coming in from the Atlantic, this is associated with a warm front, which at the moment should die to the West leading to a fine day on Sunday and increasingly warm. Max temps 22c.

Summary

All in all I think we're in for fairly decent festival weather if we can stomach the potential for some heavy showers. There's going to be plenty of warm sunshine around and plenty of mud to enjoy! I'll update on the detail about storms/showers as more info is available.

 

 

 

 

[Toffee Crisp]

Weather forecasts change every hour, just cause they've taken a turn for the worst this time doesn't mean they won't change for the better next time. 

Chin up, wellies on, drinks at the ready- it's going to be amazing no matter what.  

[Tigerdragon]

Just now, Teddington said:

I think there needs to be a reality check.

1. The ground will churn once the masses turn up.  Expect a mud fest and prepare for the worst. 

2. Yes the festival is so much better when everything is dry. 

 

Accept that and move on.  On the plus side it's going to be warm and warm and wet is so much better than cold and wet!

 

At what point did you feel the optimism in this thread grow to anywhere near the point that a 'reality check' was needed?!

I think reality has been well and truly brutalising the weather threads for days

[frostypaw]

1 minute ago, Tigerdragon said:

I think reality has been well and truly brutalising the weather threads for daysyears

Fixed that for you, easy mistake.

[alibear]

5 minutes ago, jmzparky said:

The weather reports are changing that frequenty i wouldn't worry about it. Trust me, you won't give a toss when your off your face on saurday night smashing it up in "Shangs".

I'm gonna start using "Shangs" now - love it!

[bigfurbdogg]

7 minutes ago, jmzparky said:

Who was there in 2005? -  I decided in my stupid 19 year old student wisdom that a £10 - 2 man tent from asda for me and my 6ft2 mate to stay in with some flipflops and 24 cans of carlsberg was the only stuff we needed..... Cue  "The Apocalypse" on the Friday morning - 6 hours of absolutely torrential downpour!   So after vacating my tent with now added "waterbed" feature, strapped some plastic bags to my legs with cellotape  (which lastest about 30 seconds) - and i just wanted to go home!

But, my obersvations are - when so many people are walking on the mud/puddles, if it shines like its predicted to later on, the mud gets turned over so quickly and exposed to the heat of the sun before you know it - its dried up.  So even in 2005 despite the ridiculous amount of rain and not much sun... it was miles better come the saturday.

The weather reports are changing that frequenty i wouldn't worry about it. Trust me, you won't give a toss when your off your face on saurday night smashing it up in "Shangs".

I love your use of "Shangs".

[mike86]

23 minutes ago, big__phil said:

If that's the one I was at it was the wettest festival I've ever been to. Apocalyptic is right. The main stage was sinking and everything! Still had a great time though!

 

EDIT - I think '08 was the one I am thinking of actually...

We had 2 severe weather warnings at secret garden party last year. Horrific rain. As long as you had waterproof clothing you were totally fine.  

[kbearne]

6 minutes ago, Toffee Crisp said:

Weather forecasts change every hour, just cause they've taken a turn for the worst this time doesn't mean they won't change for the better next time. 

Chin up, wellies on, drinks at the ready- it's going to be amazing no matter what.  

Yeah, I never noticed how much they actually change before this week! 

[4AssedMonkey]

Fuck this thread moves quick, can't keep up!

All packed and leaving about 1:00 for our B&B in Somerset.  Sayonara brothers & sisters.  Enjoy the best party on the planet and I look forward to reading your war stories afterwards.  Peace & Love to you all.

[Peroni]

14 minutes ago, jmzparky said:

"Shangs".

Another +1 for your use of the word Shangs... love it!

[Helsbels]

6 minutes ago, MikeJ86 said:

We had 2 severe weather warnings at secret garden party last year. Horrific rain. As long as you had waterproof clothing you were totally fine.  

Hoping for a sunny one there this year!!!

 

[Porcelina]

Doing my bit by going to see The Tallest Man on Earth at the Royal Albert Hall tonight.

Needless to say, if he plays this, I will be in trainers on Thursday morning: 

 

Edited June 21, 2016 by Porcelina

[big__phil]

The webcam looking nice and dry at the moment, and the flags are moving in the wind. Should help with the drying. Now we just need that sun to come out...

[mark_87]

How does the forecast look compared to the forecast for 2014 at this stage?

 

That was the last festival I went to so would be a useful steer as to the conditions.

 

Thanks

Edited June 21, 2016 by mark_87

[Guy Incognito]

9 minutes ago, MikeJ86 said:

We had 2 severe weather warnings at secret garden party last year. Horrific rain. As long as you had waterproof clothing you were totally fine.  

Secret Garden Party last year was astonishing. A months worth of rain fell in 2 days. It was biblical and I'm glad this weekend is going to be nothing like that! 

[CaledonianGonzo]

9 minutes ago, Tigerdragon said:

At what point did you feel the optimism in this thread grow to anywhere near the point that a 'reality check' was needed?!

Cower, brief mortals, for I - yes, I The Reality Checker - will be the one to disabuse you of your laughable human illusions!

[fightoffyour]

1 minute ago, mark_87 said:

How does the forecast look compared to the forecast for 2014 at this stage?

 

That was the last festival I went to so would be a useful street as it the conditions.

 

Thanks

This sounds like a job for @pedmills 

Edited June 21, 2016 by fightoffyour

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, mark_87 said:

How does the forecast look compared to the forecast for 2014 at this stage?

 

That was the last festival I went to so would be a useful street as it the conditions.

 

Thanks

That year the site undergone a full metal brutalising in the run up, so it's never going to be a like for like, I'm afraid.

[Keithy]

Now we've accepted there will be rain, I propose we move on to finding a scapegoat.

I propose the motion we blame Travis. Those c**ts turn up again and look what we've got.

[bsolxiv]

The probs with shangs is obvs the bants. Ye get me?

[waterfalls212434]

If it's sunny then ideal....if it's not....would you rather be home in the rain? Or at Glastonbury in the rain? Sad sacks need to lighten up...I know pleanty on here would have killed (probably literally in some cases) for your ticket so make the most of it, appreciate it, and have a blast......and remember when your under the influence rain seems fun anyway!

Edited June 21, 2016 by waterfalls212434