Weather thread 2015

[Tigerdragon]

Time to engage in some bad maths.


If forecasts are usually wrong this far away (see 2014 especially) than that means that a forecast has a greater than 50% chance of being wrong.

Therefore bad news is good news.

Therefore, light up the barby its going to be a scorcher. (either that, or we'll need a float for the barby because of the biblical levels of flooding).

[Mr Splodge]

Time to engage in some bad maths.

If forecasts are usually wrong this far away (see 2014 especially) than that means that a forecast has a greater than 50% chance of being wrong.

Therefore bad news is good news.

Therefore, light up the barby its going to be a scorcher. (either that, or we'll need a float for the barby because of the biblical levels of flooding).

If all goes tits up Michael Eavis has a boat.

[**claire**]

Yr.no forecast just coming into range now:

 

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Wednesday = cloudy.

[TheNewUnion]

Every year this thread is a roller-coaster. I suppose it's the human condition, but I'm lifted by (and believe) anything positive and get dragged down (and question) anything negative.

 

JackOne/J10 might shed some light later today, perhaps.

[surreysupermum]

This is the best way of predicting the weather in my opinion - always correct

 

http://www.nedmartin.org/v3/amused/weather-forecasting-stone

[devonhammer]

Yr.no forecast just coming into range now:

 

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Wednesday = cloudy.

 

I like yr.no normally, but their pressure map has a low barrelling across the Atlantic. I'm going to ignore everything for a few days , I reckon. This is too stressful and, as has been pointed out many times, completely pointless.

[Glastonlocal]

yeah now it's looking bad this is definitely all pointless. ignore. I'll check back when someone has some good news. 

[PabloCoke]

Time to engage in some bad maths.

If forecasts are usually wrong this far away (see 2014 especially) than that means that a forecast has a greater than 50% chance of being wrong.

Therefore bad news is good news.

Therefore, light up the barby its going to be a scorcher. (either that, or we'll need a float for the barby because of the biblical levels of flooding).

Flawless logic, I like it.

[ghandi]

twas looking so good yesterday , damn you weather!

[Zardoz67]

I'd take this right now http://www.theweathernetwork.com/uk/news/articles/uk-weather/glastonbury-festival-weather--an-early-forecast/52679/

[tullux]

http://www.wetter.com/wetter_aktuell/wettervorhersage/16_tagesvorhersage/?id=GB0KK1453

 

not bad at all!?

[The Nal]

I'd take this right now http://www.theweathernetwork.com/uk/news/articles/uk-weather/glastonbury-festival-weather--an-early-forecast/52679/

 

You sadistic monster!

 

There are signs that more showery weather will then spread in from the west as we head towards the weekend with temperatures dropping down too.

[Zardoz67]

It was more the 'There is also the possibility that high pressure will dominate throughout next week, preventing any showery weather from moving in' that I was clinging to

[FuzzyDunlop]

Tomorrow will probably look better.

Good

Bad

Good

Bad

Has been the pattern for the last 8 days.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

Tomorrow will probably look better.

Good

Bad

Good

Bad

Has been the pattern for the last 8 days.

 

and if you follow that pattern up until the festival, Wednesday 24th is a 'Good' day.

 

Problem solved: we're in for a cracker.

[Stu H]

Good

Bad

Grohl

Bad

[big__phil]

may as well consult the tealeaves at this point in time....

 

Well? What do they say??!?!

[The Nal]

It was more the 'There is also the possibility that high pressure will dominate throughout next week, preventing any showery weather from moving in' that I was clinging to

 

High pressure is all we can ask for. 

 

The weather over the last week has been perfect. Boring, dry, mild, calm.

 

has noone figured out the fact its changing day to day means none of them really have a fucking clue as of yet? may as well consult the tealeaves at this point in time....ill pay attention to a forecast from monday/tuesday next week, before that its not worth the worry.

 

This weeks weather is important as they're setting up and it can make it muddy before we even arrive. Or soften up the earth meaning even a small shower can muddy the place up.

 

Also whatever weather we get this week can make it unlikely we'll have the same next week.

[fur_q]

Latest rainfall probability data.

As pointed out before the probability tool lags behind the GFS ensemble outputs so latest data at present is for the run 14/06 @ 18z.

As with last time the X axis represents the probability of the event occurring as a percentage, the Y axis represents the rainfall amount queried for each day.

The blue bar represents the last available ensemble run and the black + * x show the same results from the previous 3 runs.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

You see what happens when you get greedy!!! This is all on you!

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/glastonbury/ba6-9/june-weather/330614

 

in fairness, 23/24 on Saturday and Sunday sounds alright. The rest is pretty vague: "with a shower in spots", "a little rain" and "a thunderstorm" could also end up being absolutely nothing.

[Tigerdragon]

I predict that by the time the festival happens, we'll have had at least two more forecasts that make us dance, and two that makes our rectums shrink alarmingly. 

8 days left

Today: Mixed/rainy
Day 1: Sunnier
2: Sunnier still
3: Sudden influx of storms and rain clouds, welly sales increase 200% compared to yearly averages for your average day in June
4: Armegeddon-like reports
5: Armegeddon moves to the week after as warm air from Africa gets warmer and shifts the worst of the weather East for Glastonbury, light showers
6: Cloudy, dry, humid
7: Sunnier, a little cooler
8: To reporters disbelief, sunniest weekend on weather, with startling low levels of UV and comfortable heat.

Definitely.


 

[fightoffyour]

You see what happens when you get greedy!!! This is all on you!

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/glastonbury/ba6-9/june-weather/330614

[Spindles]

I blame Nal for breaking his doomsaying too early.  If he'd just waited til Wednesday we'd have had a chance, but now we're fucked.

[tom22]

It's ok, MetCheck still looking bon

 

[sheffieldlady]

I am now willing to partake in weather chat - before it changed to much but now it's NEXT WEEK! I'm ready. I will take the Friday showers - what's Glastonbury without getting rained on the Friday??