Weather thread 2015

[FuzzyDunlop]

Two q's...can anyone confirm mm rainfall we got last year and when is next jackone entry expected?

 

 

1. Not sure

2. Between 6 and 10pm tonight

[Koroviev]

3mm maybe, depends on the previous day whether the ground is bone dry and jus soaks it up,also depends on human traffic,jus a guess?

 

True, I guess there are many variables. 

[The Nal]

Forecast for 2013 on the Wednesday of the festival. Notice Accuweather far from accurate! It rained on Thursday and nothing Friday/Saturday.

 

10mm of rain apparently fell in 4-5 hours up to 11pm ish I think. And it was dry by 1am and back into normal footwear the next day.

Edited June 15, 2015 by The Nal

[tom22]

Would be interesting to see if anyone has the 2013 rainfall figures.

 

Rained hard on Thursday for a couple of hours, whole place turned muddy, but by 8am Friday it was dry and flip-flop friendly again.

[budvar]

I am reliably informed that Tomasz Schafernaker from BBC Weather is going to be doing tweets about the Glastonbury weather in the run-up to the festival; fingers crossed it's good news.

 

@schafernaker if you want to follow.

[frostypaw]

This is probably just them making up for the fact that they predicted minimal rain last year. I believe consensus among weather forecasters was for a few mms, and we got over 50mm.

Aye such is the bitch with storms - and anyone there watched that storm catch us - it really did look for all the world like it was going to sod off over shepton mallet and leave us alone but.... fail.

If it had then the forecasters would have been bang on.

[Koroviev]

Yeah it's why I am curious. I haven't done glasto before but I remember latitude 2013 being glorious weather but that still had an hour or two of showers every day in the morning but the ground was fine due to the temperatures.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Would be interesting to see if anyone has the 2013 rainfall figures.

Rained hard on Thursday for a couple of hours, whole place turned muddy, but by 8am Friday it was dry and flip-flop friendly again.

It was still raining at about 7am when I left the tent for a 50 yard walk to the facilities.

[GlastoSimon]

Would be interesting to see if anyone has the 2013 rainfall figures.

 

Rained hard on Thursday for a couple of hours, whole place turned muddy, but by 8am Friday it was dry and flip-flop friendly again.

 

I would certainly take 2013 if offered. As you say, was fine by Friday night at the latest due to the sun and warmth.

 

If it has to rain (obviously hope it doesn't) then Thursday is the ideal day for me. Doesn't affect the setting up, and doesn't affect the ground surrounding the main stages. 

 

Funnily enough I stumbled across Jackone's forecast from exactly this time in 2013, and it was quite negative. I'm expecting the same sort of negativity tonight, but it was interesting that the forecasts, models etc. were so uncertain, similar to this year. Shows it can go either way from here I guess, but also that negativity at this point isn't the end of the world. 

[Untz]

It was still raining at about 7am when I left the tent for a 50 yard walk to the facilities.

 

It must have started up again as I spent a lot of the Thursday night sat on a closed Genosys in the dry.

[Jakkkkobz]

shiteing shitter I am sacrificing some livestock and a white clad virgin in a giant wickerman to appease the weather gods

[CaledonianGonzo]

It must have started up again as I spent a lot of the Thursday night sat on a closed Genosys in the dry.

Yeah - from memory it was dry when I went to bed, but I was disappointed to find out that it had cranked back into action again.

[arcade fireman]

I am reliably informed that Tomasz Schafernaker from BBC Weather is going to be doing tweets about the Glastonbury weather in the run-up to the festival; fingers crossed it's good news.

 

@schafernaker if you want to follow.

Ah, the guy responsible for one of my favourite BBC news moments:

 

[budvar]

Ah, the guy responsible for one of my favourite BBC news moments:

 

That's the one. Lad.

[Titters2]

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGDY/2014/6/27/WeeklyHistory.html

Not exactly the festival site, but this is the weather from last year's festival week at a site about 5 miles away?

Suggests 30mm of rain in the week, and 10mm on the Friday.

But that storm was probably pretty localised, so could be quite different...

[DJL]

Can no longer keep up with this thread, let alone the forum - love this time of year

[Chris E]

It was looking good, but it looks like Phil Jones might cause panic with a poorly judged ball back to the keeper.

 

Let's hope Phil can clear it at the last minute.

 

https://youtu.be/_6FvTgIGYL8

[GlastoSimon]

Looking at the GFS 12z run, appears that the huge bit of low pressure which was hitting the South West on the Thursday of the festival in the earlier run has gone. 

 

Now it actually appears that a smaller low is appearing this weekend and pissing off literally just before the start of the festival, and then a spell of high pressure arrives on Weds, improving as the festival goes on.

 

Someone forgive me if I'm wrong, new to this stuff Looks close though and will almost certainly change, hopefully for the better though. 

Edited June 15, 2015 by GlastoSimon

[Porcelina]

2013 was glorious festival weather, I would take that in an instant every single year.

 

The worst part of last year was the fact the next downpour/rain was never far away, or would pop up out of nowhere when all was looking fine. If it hadn't have rained on the Saturday, it'd have been 'fine'.

[frostypaw]

Looking at the GFS 12z run, appears that the huge bit of low pressure which was hitting the South West on the Thursday of the festival in the earlier run has gone.

And gone with a bang!

Good. That gave me a bit of the heebiejeebies. This uncertainty is all focused around the upper atmosphere event/shift on the 19th/20th... and it's stuck with that for many runs now. I guess that's when we'll get to know

[Porcelina]

Was gonna say similar, that was the killer in 2011, waterlogged before you even arrived. Water tables should be quite low at the moment, after the last few weeks = beautiful beautiful drainage.

[CaledonianGonzo]

What people need to remember as well is the weather the few days before the fest matters as well, because it affects how the ground is....if its been soaking for days before the fest then the ground will not be able to soak up much water and it'll get muddy with even a tiny amount of rain.....if it's been dry then the ground will be able.to absorb a lot more

Theoretically this is true, but in 2011 it belted it down in the preceding weeks and on the Wednesday and Friday, yet it was still pretty dry again by the Sunday. Though that was a warm day.

[lisa93]

Those looking at gfs, any chance of some charts? Gone quiet on netweather (or rather they are not posting as often as my obsessive refreshing!)

[frostypaw]

Netweather seems much less chatty than it was I agree

but charts:

That's the one I like. Pressure at the top, rainfall at the bottom

[Glastonlocal]

Ha that means nothing to me. We expecting a J10 drop tonight?