Weather thread 2015

[Wooderson]

07 < 11 < 05 < 14 < 08 < 04 < 09 < 13 < 10

In terms of precipitation / effect on ground conditions 2007 the worst in the last decade IMO.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

Remember the General Election polls!

 

which polls are we talking about? because if we're talking about the exit polls and the Conservatives = heavy rain...we're all royally fucked.

[ivan]

Uh oh .. Somebody has clearly angered the Glastonbury Festival God ... Has anybody recently exposed their breasts for a selfie on the Glastonbury Tor which we can blame all of this on?

Brilliant !

[Spindles]

07 < 11 < 05 < 14 < 08 < 04 < 09 < 13 < 10

In terms of precipitation / effect on ground conditions 2007 the worst in the last decade IMO.

Bang on, I reckon. 

[big__phil]

Remember the General Election polls!

Kicking us when we're down!

[GlastoSimon]

The problem is the re-emergence of that low pressure which pissed off in yesterday's 12z run which falls directly on the weekend! If it wasn't for that then the forecast would have been even better than yesterday's 12z because the low pressure set for this weekend looks to be out of the way by Tuesday, rather than Weds. 

 

If that can piss off again and piss off for good, it's not looking bad at all! Big if at the moment though. I'll still wait until the 12z run before worrying too much. 

[Cuboid]

07 < 11 < 05 < 14 < 08 < 04 < 09 < 13 < 10

In terms of precipitation / effect on ground conditions 2007 the worst in the last decade IMO.

 

Switch 08 and 04.  

[fur_q]

The problem with any forecasts ATM is that there is currently no correlation in the model runs.

I’ve overlaid the last 4 GFS ensemble pressure charts which really demonstrates the amount of variance (lack of confidence) in any GFS output beyond this weekend.

Edited June 16, 2015 by fur_q

[LionelRichT]

Time for a positive one, which goes against the doom and gloom!

 

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-warm-sunny-stint-set-start-Glastonbury/story-26705798-detail/story.html

[fightoffyour]

The accuweather forecast is horrendous today:

we're fucked! we're totally fucked! 

[Homer]

It has to rain constantly in the run up to the festival, then constantly during it for it to be a mudbath (I type this every year). No one is predicting this. We will be fine. The problem is that people see some rain being forecast for some point over the weekend and automatically think this equals mudbath.

Edited June 16, 2015 by Homer

[tom22]

Here's one from that well respected authority on all things Meteorological: BT

 

http://home.bt.com/lifestyle/glastonbury-festival-weather-rain-and-hail-in-the-run-up-to-the-festival-updated-daily-11363984176216 

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

It has to rain constantly in the run up to the festival, then constantly during it for it to be a mudbath (I type this every year). No one is predicting this. We will be fine. The problem is that people see some rain being forecast for some point over the weekend and automatically think this equals mudbath.

 

This was the case in 2011. Rain before the festival and heavy rain Wednesday and Friday. Thankfully it dried up/was quite hot on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Last year was anomalous in that the build-up was pretty dry, but 40+mm of rain fell across across the weekend. Last year was absolutely a mudbath (not like 2007, but still).

[H_D]

So do I need wellies then??

[Homer]

Last year was absolutely a mudbath (not like 2007, but still).

 

It really wasn't.

[Homer]

So do I need wellies then??

Yes.

[Mr Splodge]

Just seen this

http://home.bt.com/lifestyle/glastonbury-festival-weather-rain-and-hail-in-the-run-up-to-the-festival-updated-daily-11363984176216

[pecks]

It really wasn't.

This. Last year was a bit muddy. No way it was a "mudbath"

[Swine_Glasto2014]

It really wasn't.

Agreed

[Untz]

It really wasn't.

 

It was a nightmare in places.

 

Depends on where you draw the mudbath line and which parts you spent a lot of time in really.

[Swine_Glasto2014]

Just seen this

http://home.bt.com/lifestyle/glastonbury-festival-weather-rain-and-hail-in-the-run-up-to-the-festival-updated-daily-11363984176216

Awesome

[koj]

I can live with a shower, even heavy ones like last year, but grey and cold all weekend doesn't sound fun. :-(

[big__phil]

So at this point are we only really looking for trends? Obviously it's too early to know if/when/how much it's likely to rain. Is anything emerging at this stage?

 

*pretends to act like he knows what he's talking about*

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

Depends where you went in the site....the heavily traveled areas like silverhayes and the path between john peel/pyramid/silver hayes were churned up pretty well.

 

This. Those areas and the other stage field were wrecked. Getting from Pennards to Silver Hayes via the other on Saturday last year took an enternity/was a nightmare. 

 

But yeah as others have said - it entirely depends on where you spent most of your time.

Edited June 16, 2015 by SonOfTroyMcClure

[Tommy__]

The BBC Weather site is currently reporting a hail shower on Monday 22nd for Pilton, Somerset.

 

Are they pissed?