Weather thread 2015

[big__phil]

Legend. May the weather odds be ever in your favour.

This

[wetflame]

Yeah I can do that.

 

Just want to chip in with everyone else saying thanks for all these graphs, been a real ride over the last few weeks and as we get closer to the festival it's only getting more heightened! Fingers crossed you're the bearer of good news when the solid predictions come in!

[djcolsen]

Are we back to being positive now? Struggling to keep up

[majormajormajor]

guys -- the reason why accuweather is all over the place is because they use the GFS charts in their forecasting. they get the charts a few times a day and bish bash bosh, there's your forecast.

 

the latest GFS run is looking a lot better than this morning's run - the low pressure is staying away rather than riding right over somerset.

 

it is just impossible to tell what will happen this far out -- but we are starting to get an idea of what the chances are of a few scenarios. the chances of a heatwave are about zilch. the chances of a washout far greater. but conversely, there's also an equal chance of a dry festival.

 

it isn't 'reading tea leaves' as some other idiots suggest, it's just it can go either way - the low pressure system stays in the atlantic, or goes further north - and we're clear. or it goes right over us and we're fucked.

Edited June 16, 2015 by majormajormajor

[pedmills]

The thing about this graph is that it's tempting to think "we're still way below 2014 and that wasn't too bad".... but 2014 actually had a tonne, just all in one go. If you spread that out over 3-4 days then you have a miserable festival weather-wise.

In a previous year I tried to split it by days, but it was pointless because some sites would forecast a storm on saturday and others on friday etc, so it ended up looking like rain spread out throughout the whole festival.

I will maybe do that again next tuesday.

[HotChipWillBreakYourLegs]

This ten day forecast is showing showers on Tues, Weds and Thurs:

 

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day/Shepton+Mallet+SOM+United+Kingdom+UKXX1735:1:UK

[stopwn1981]

The GFS for precipitation latest run still looks shocking.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

This ten day forecast is showing showers on Tues, Weds and Thurs:

 

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day/Shepton+Mallet+SOM+United+Kingdom+UKXX1735:1:UK

 

only 40% chance of rain though which is still pretty favourable

[leon3574]

^{now this}

^{http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Experts-predict-Glastonbury-Festival-scorcher/story-26706655-detail/story.html}

[Keithy]

Given that Accuweather was so bad this morning and has already changed, I decided to do an afternoon version of my daily graph:

 

 

Better

 

 

Out of interest what does the trend line look like if you take out this morning's accu data?

 

If anything, they have forecasted too well there Clive. Certainly the sun needs to be in and around there.

[JoeyT]

It's weird that when the charts etc were showing high pressure over us for the duration of the festival all the news outlets we're saying it would be a wash out and now the charts have got worse they're saying it'll be scorching?!

[Jakkkkobz]

Its going to be like Napoleons retreat from Acre now!

[Wanderlei]

Glastonbury seems to have its own microclimate.

[teamsofa]

It's weird that when the charts etc were showing high pressure over us for the duration of the festival all the news outlets we're saying it would be a wash out and now the charts have got worse they're saying it'll be scorching?!

Most of the stories will be using out of date data. They hate the idea of normal weather for Glastonbury. They will only print mudbath / scorcher headlines.

 

There's no story in "weather for Glastonbury looks pretty much average for this time of year"

[big__phil]

If anything, they have forecasted too well there Clive. Certainly the sun needs to be in and around there.

 

For me, Clive, I think they should be doing better from here.

[grgcmnng]

For me, Clive, I think they should be doing better from here.

He has to work the goalie from there.

[benc]

my trusty yahoo weather app is predicting rain on Wednesday and Thursday

[Mr.Tease]

Did they ever get that bloke in the middle pic out?

 

Nope, unfortunately all those people in the photos died from mud and rain related trauma

[Filthy]

He has to work the goalie from there.

There's no easy forecasts in international weather forecasting these days

[Mr.Tease]

So at this point are we only really looking for trends? Obviously it's too early to know if/when/how much it's likely to rain. Is anything emerging at this stage?

 

*pretends to act like he knows what he's talking about*

 

Basically yes, unless the forecast is hot and sunny, in which case the trend becomes basic fact.

 

At this point really, what you can gather is the level of certainty- if there were only highs projected everywhere, then we'd be pretty certain the weather was going to to be good. However, at the moment there is is battle between high pressure to the south, and low pressure (i.e. shit) to the north- the models can't figure out which will dominate yet, which is why the forecasts keep swinging- if the low pressure pushes south it will be rainy, if it stays way north it should be sunny, if it's in between the weather will be mixed. 

 

The shorter the time scale, the more accurate it becomes. However, even then sometimes you get lucky/unlucky at the last minute- remember last week they forecast torrential rain for Friday, and it never really happened, and that was on the day itself it was predicted.

[big__phil]

There's no easy forecasts in international weather forecasting these days

If anything, Clive, they've almost got too much time from here.

[wetflame]

The shorter the time scale, the more accurate it becomes. However, even then sometimes you get lucky/unlucky at the last minute- remember last week they forecast torrential rain for Friday, and it never really happened, and that was on the day itself it was predicted.

 

I do remember - had planned a trip to Thorpe Park on the Friday and was well annoyed at the prospect of thunderstorms! In the end it was humid and drizzled for about 20 minutes or so but nothing major. Let's hope for something similar for the festival if those predictions arrive again.

[Filthy]

If anything, Clive, they've almost got too much time from here.

He's used his strength and that's his strength, his strength

[fur_q]

- remember last week they forecast torrential rain for Friday, and it never really happened, and that was on the day itself it was predicted.

In all last weekends general weather trends where quite well predicted for quite some time before (there isn't anywhere near that level of certainty for glasto week in the data ATM), but I think the warnings of torrential rain where more down to the Micheal Fish Effect* than what the actual model data was showing.

*ie since the infamous 87 storm forecast human forecasters will always report worse case scenarios when there is a likelihood of bad weather, in order to not repeat that scenario.

[Space Shanty]

This thread is making me wish I'd chosen meteorology at uni.

 

Well, this and Lucy Verasamy... and Laura Tobin.

 

Shite careers adviser.

Edited June 16, 2015 by Space Shanty