Weather thread 2015

[Spindles]

There was a proper heatwave just after, it was a piddly may and june, if I recall correctly.  Don't know if it would have been cancelled, as it never has before (and there have been some legendary years where it's been as bad as it can be).

[big__phil]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/surprise-appearance-confirmed-for-glastonbury--sunshine-103208676.html#GNmXIuv

 

This is Yahoo quoting The Sun who are quoting The Met Office. Sounds like yesterday's information to me...

[Mark it Zero!]

Welcome, and thanks for the charts. Nothing we enjoy more than charts. Keep them coming!

 

Thanks

[Glastoboy]

Calm down y'all. The computer predictions are currently battling to decide whether the high or low pressure system is going on win out come Monday/Tuesday. Just got to keep fingers crossed for the High Pressure from the Azores to grow slowly. Heatwave could still easily be on the cards. All to play for.

[TheParkAfterDark]

More 2007 type 1 mud

Guy in the dinghy #TeamSwift

[Keithy]

There was a proper heatwave just after, it was a piddly may and june, if I recall correctly.  Don't know if it would have been cancelled, as it never has before (and there have been some legendary years where it's been as bad as it can be).

 

Somerset was still badly flooded in May and June, the water just sat there. Remember getting the train up from Devon to London and passing flooded field after flooded field. The logistics of getting everyone on site on saturated ground may have proved very challenging.

[DeanoL]

So at this point are we only really looking for trends? Obviously it's too early to know if/when/how much it's likely to rain. Is anything emerging at this stage?

 

*pretends to act like he knows what he's talking about*

Yeah. Sometimes by this point you can have a decent idea what's going to happen and the forecasts for rain or shine fairly confident. But sometimes you have a potentially problematic cold front with no clue how fast or what direction it's going to go in, so it's all still up in the air. Which is where we are now.

[oneeye]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=siz65X5Jv6A

[pedmills]

Given that Accuweather was so bad this morning and has already changed, I decided to do an afternoon version of my daily graph:

 

[The Nal]

 You relaxed and thought it was in the bag Nal. Have you blown it for us??

 

 

Accuweather seems to have updated their forecast again - I can only see 4mm of rain now: http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/pilton/ba4-4/june-weather/710458

 

40mm, to 10mm to 4mm in a few hours. 

[chief_scrutter]

Given that Accuweather was so bad this morning and has already changed, I decided to do an afternoon version of my daily graph:

 

pedmills - this continues to be brilliant. thanks. out of interest has accuweather generally been the maximum?

[big__phil]

Given that Accuweather was so bad this morning and has already changed, I decided to do an afternoon version of my daily graph:

 

 

Better

 

 

Out of interest what does the trend line look like if you take out this morning's accu data?

Edited June 16, 2015 by big__phil

[pedmills]

pedmills - this continues to be brilliant. thanks. out of interest has accuweather generally been the maximum?

Some of the time it has, but not always. It currently is not - Wetter is. This morning it was, but yesterday WorldWeatherOnline was.

Over all the days I've being doing this Wetter has the highest average (19.7mm). Myweather2 (15.6) and Yourweather (15.9) are also ahead of Accuweather (13.6).

Accuweather has been the most varied though.

[JoeyT]

Pedmills I feel for everyone's sanity your graphs need to come out am and pm from now on.

Can you manage that or is it asking to much?

[big__phil]

Some of the time it has, but not always. It currently is not - Wetter is. This morning it was, but yesterday WorldWeatherOnline was.

Over all the days I've being doing this Wetter has the highest average (19.7mm). Myweather2 (15.6) and Yourweather (15.9) are also ahead of Accuweather (13.6).

Accuweather has been the most varied though.

 

I love this kind of analysis, cracking stuff.

[pedmills]

Out of interest what does the trend line look like if you take out this morning's accu data?

 

Less steep, but still going up.

[pedmills]

Pedmills I feel for everyone's sanity your graphs need to come out am and pm from now on.

Can you manage that or is it asking to much?

Yeah I can do that.

[elbongo]

Tell me when it's safe to gander again...

[JoeyT]

Yeah I can do that.

Legend. May the weather odds be ever in your favour.

[Tacopowell]

Given that Accuweather was so bad this morning and has already changed, I decided to do an afternoon version of my daily graph:

I think I love you

[Tacopowell]

Yeah I can do that.

No, I definitely love you.

[ghandi]

Accuweather seems to have updated their forecast again - I can only see 4mm of rain now: http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/pilton/ba4-4/june-weather/710458

 

Accuweather are taking the piss! Sunny up until Wednesday then cloud and rain until Monday and sunny afterwards? They really are pulling our chain.

[Stu H]

Cloud is fine! Repeat, cloud is fine!

[Vanderlyle]

Given that Accuweather was so bad this morning and has already changed, I decided to do an afternoon version of my daily graph:

 

 

The thing about this graph is that it's tempting to think "we're still way below 2014 and that wasn't too bad".... but 2014 actually had a tonne, just all in one go. If you spread that out over 3-4 days then you have a miserable festival weather-wise.

[frostypaw]

I like all this worst case scenario thinking, will mean what happens might be a nice surprise