Weather thread 2015

[justperfect]

So at the minute are we phil jones or haim?

[tom22]

New Terry Scholey forecast

 

June 22nd to 25th: While most places should continue to see the emphasis on mainly dry weather giving sunny intervals, there is a greater risk of showers particularly in the north and east. A few could be heavy with a risk of local hail and thunder, but they will be largely 'hit and miss' affairs. Probably turning rather cool from the north, with top temperatures perhaps no more than 13 to 18C later. Minimum temperatures mostly in the range 4 to 10C, with a risk of grass frost in vulnerable rural areas.

 

June 26th to around 3rd July: Rather cool at first with perhaps scattered showers in the east, but it should slowly become sunnier and warmer towards the end of June. The turn of the month could well see a very warm or hot summery spell, that may turn increasingly humid into the first few days of July. Perhaps a few showers moving into more western areas later. Top temperatures 15 to 22C rising to 19 to 28C. Chilly then much milder, humid nights, with minimum temperatures 3 to 10C rising to 8 to 16C.

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[Keithy]

On the Faces of Phil Jones scale, I think things have took a turn for the worse since yesterday

Edited June 15, 2015 by Keithy

[Migraine]

Could we get get Jackone to change the scale from 1-10 to a faces of Phil Jones scale.

[tullux]

looking good, too

http://www.wetteronline.de/wettertrend/shepton-mallet?start=8

[Spindles]

So at the minute are we phil jones or haim?

It was looking good, but it looks like Phil Jones might cause panic with a poorly judged ball back to the keeper.

[djcolsen]

Was glorious yesterday woeful today

What point do we take it seriously?

Any ideas as to when they had the weather last year correct?

[T-Mouse]

I'd go as far as to say we've conceded after getting complacent. It's 2-1 but it's by no means over. It's not time to park the bus just yet...

[jeffie]

Any ideas as to when they had the weather last year correct?

 

When we were leaving.

[majormajormajor]

This afternoon's GFS chart is really, really bad.

 

A big low coming in straight over us on Thursday morning and sticking around for the entire festival.

[jeffie]

Not looking promising

 

[djcolsen]

This afternoon's GFS chart is really, really bad.

A big low coming in straight over us on Thursday morning and sticking around for the entire festival.

Christ

[T-Mouse]

This afternoon's GFS chart is really, really bad.

A big low coming in straight over us on Thursday morning and sticking around for the entire festival.

Oh Jesus... Where's the bus? SOMEBODY PARK THE BUS FOR LOVE OF GOD!

Edited June 15, 2015 by T-Mouse

[blackred]

Was glorious yesterday woeful today

What point do we take it seriously?

Any ideas as to when they had the weather last year correct?

 

The weekend before most sites had moved the breakdown to be over the festival rather than after. When and how much came later, certainly had a good idea what to expect when I set off on Tuesday evening though I was still hoping it would be wrong!

Edited June 15, 2015 by blackred

[Aphex's twin]

I just don't see where the gloom is coming from.

 

It's heading for a pretty good festival on the whole.

 

A few spot of rain is hardly time for despair.

[stephos83]

This afternoon's GFS chart is really, really bad.

 

A big low coming in straight over us on Thursday morning and sticking around for the entire festival.

 

Having read netweather and partially understood it, it appears that this run of the GFS is really an outlier - see the ensembles graph posted here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83255-model-output-discussion-1st-june-2015-12z/?p=3215664

[majormajormajor]

Some models suggest 10mm rain on the Friday, there'll be some wind Thurs-Sat too by the looks of it.

 

This will all change though guys, it's still way too far out to predict.

It's half the 'fun' -- this time yesterday it was still looking good. Today it looks shithouse.

 

Tomorrow it'll probably be OK again.

[JoeyT]

This afternoon's GFS chart is really, really bad.

 

A big low coming in straight over us on Thursday morning and sticking around for the entire festival.

 

BUT

 

I believe this is wildly different to what other data is showing with regards to the amount of rainfall so by 6pm when the next GFS charts are out it could be all change again.

 

We only really need to get worried when all of the charts are showing the same things.

 

The Met Office for instance are running with this as their latest:

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Jun 2015 to Monday 29 Jun 2015:

It is expected to be rather cloudy over the weekend with showers or perhaps longer spells of rain in the north whilst the best of the drier brighter weather should be in the south of the country where it should feel relatively warm at times. Similar conditions are likely on Monday, although most places should see some brighter or sunny spells. There is considerable uncertainty regarding weather conditions from Tuesday onwards but it looks likely that most places should see some dry and fine spells. However, more generally unsettled weather may return later in the period, particularly for the northwest. It may become warm at times, especially in the south, but temperatures will remain around average or just below average in the north and west.

[Spindles]

I miss the days of pleasant red dominated charts.  Can we have that again please?

 

Atm it all feels a bit..

 

[fur_q]

06z gfs operational does look to be a massively pessimistic outlier compared to the ensembles, but looking at variance of those ensemble runs, I'd say right now confidence is low for anytime beyond the 22nd.

[ThomZorke]

This doesn't look too bad! But yeah, it really changes every other minute...

[fur_q]

This doesn't look too bad! But yeah, it really changes every six hours..

FTFY

[stopwn1981]

Haha. Accuweather reporting ridiculous amounts of rain now. Tonnes more than last year. And at point that was hard work!

[st dan]

I can't take this anymore.

When I get home I'm going for a long cold shower in my clothes, in preparation for the torrential rain we're going to get.

[koj]

 

I'm sure Accuweather are just playing us.