Weather thread 2015

[The Nal]

Any forecasts regarding rain aren't accurate outside 72 hours, 5 days regarding temperature. So even the rainfall forecasts on the Tuesday of the festival aren't accurate for the weekend.

In short, this thread is a total waste of time.

[JoeyT]

I used to post daily updates from the various (more reliable) weather forecasters. Thought I'd start again, so here goes:

J10: The NOAA charts are very promising in the run up to Glastonbury for settled weather. The Ensembles go for a settled period the week before Glastonbury, but will it last for the festival, the 7th/9th June runs suggest no, but today's suggest they might.

A long way off still, but the more patterns are starting to emerge time will tell if they are the right ones. However not the worst charts ever seen in the run up to Glastonbury.

GFS: Showers Wednesday night and Friday evening. Only covers until Saturday so far. Pressure looks good.

TWO: Dry (but only has forecast up to Friday of festival).

Meteox: Not in forecast range yet.

Meteo: Only forecasts to Wednesday of festival, but dry.

GFS Ensemble: Likely to be dry, with only a few outliers showing showers.

Met Office: No specific forecast yet, but "Generally settled with plenty of dry and fine weather likely across many southern areas".

ECM: Not in forecast range yet.

YR.NO: Not in forecast range yet.

Welcome back devonhammer!

[Kanye's Cock]

I seem to remember last year we were all basking in the glory of every weather outlet telling us it was going to be absolutely glorious all week. only for this to completely change about 2 days before and break our hearts.

I wouldn't read anything into any forecasts at the moment. just tell yourself it's going to be lovely because it will be.

[psward]

Any forecasts regarding rain aren't accurate outside 72 hours, 5 days regarding temperature. So even the rainfall forecasts on the Tuesday of the festival aren't accurate for the weekend.

In short, this thread is a total waste of time.

Agreed. Yesterday BBC was saying tomorrow was 25 degrees with weather warnings for thunder storms here in London. Tomorrow is now looking 25 and cloudy.

[Glastonlocal]

Any forecasts regarding rain aren't accurate outside 72 hours, 5 days regarding temperature. So even the rainfall forecasts on the Tuesday of the festival aren't accurate for the weekend.

In short, this thread is a total waste of time.

Nal's got his back up as the reports are going against him.

The man's clearly rattled.

[Tacopowell]

It's only accuweather (which doesn't update every day) which is looking bad today:

What could make this chart better?

A confidence bar,

How do you rate confidence? Percentage? Low/medium/High?

I reckon it can be done?

I have confidence in you Pedmills!

[Untz]

We should rename this thread The Pretty Chart Thread so people can stop whining about the forecasts being inaccurate.

[neil999]

Any forecasts regarding rain aren't accurate outside 72 hours, 5 days regarding temperature. So even the rainfall forecasts on the Tuesday of the festival aren't accurate for the weekend.

In short, this thread is a total waste of time.

not true im afraid, i can tell you the weather for christmas

[The Nal]

Agreed. Yesterday BBC was saying tomorrow was 25 degrees with weather warnings for thunder storms here in London. Tomorrow is now looking 25 and cloudy.

It'll probably be 25c and the sun splitting the stones. Although if it does rain it may get rid of that fucker who plays the bagpipes in Trafalgar Square.

Just wrong.

[pedmills]

The tuesday-before forecasts can give your rough idea of what its going to be like.

In 2014 85% of the websites forecast rainfall over 10mm (and 69% over 15mm, 46% over 20mm, etc). The average was 19.5mm.

Whereas in 2013, 100% of the websites forecast under 10mm. The average was 2.6mm.

2013 turned out much drier than 2014.

[festivalsandgigs]

My partner is a bit of a mathemagician and weather nerd, he wrote up an article documenting the weather history of all past Glastos and predicting the odds for 2015. We've got a spreadsheet and everything. http://festivalsandgigs.com/history-and-predictions-glastonbury-festival-weather

Basically:

45% chance of an epic mudbath

20% chance of a hot, dry festival

35% chance of a moderately muddy but tenable British summer climate

So it's still two bags of clothing at this point...

[neil999]

The tuesday-before forecasts can give your rough idea of what its going to be like.

In 2014 85% of the websites forecast rainfall over 10mm (and 69% over 15mm, 46% over 20mm, etc). The average was 19.5mm.

Whereas in 2013, 100% of the websites forecast under 10mm. The average was 2.6mm.

2013 turned out much drier than 2014.

yeah sometimes its almost definite, i remeber the 2010 forecast was showing almost 100% chance of no rain and thats how it turned out(and vice versa with rain) so it can give an indication of trends or if the weather is 'set' but this seems pretty rare(the rain during u2 for example only forecast a day before i believe, but we knew it was definitely happening and it would be heavy)

[01seb]

My partner is a bit of a mathemagician and weather nerd, he wrote up an article documenting the weather history of all past Glastos and predicting the odds for 2015. We've got a spreadsheet and everything. http://festivalsandgigs.com/history-and-predictions-glastonbury-festival-weather

Basically:

45% chance of an epic mudbath

20% chance of a hot, dry festival

35% chance of a moderately muddy but tenable British summer climate

So it's still two bags of clothing at this point...

Pretty interesting article to read.

Seems we are due a dry one!

Although that article says it was a mudbath in 2013? Far from the truth...

[Hoax]

My partner is a bit of a mathemagician and weather nerd, he wrote up an article documenting the weather history of all past Glastos and predicting the odds for 2015. We've got a spreadsheet and everything. http://festivalsandgigs.com/history-and-predictions-glastonbury-festival-weather

Basically:

45% chance of an epic mudbath

20% chance of a hot, dry festival

35% chance of a moderately muddy but tenable British summer climate

So it's still two bags of clothing at this point...

Great article but.... 2013 was not a mudbath.. not even close, I would take 2013 weather any day, and I would say 2014 was deffo a mudbath

Edited June 11, 2015 by Hoax

[Dr Glasto]

My partner is a bit of a mathemagician and weather nerd, he wrote up an article documenting the weather history of all past Glastos and predicting the odds for 2015. We've got a spreadsheet and everything. http://festivalsandgigs.com/history-and-predictions-glastonbury-festival-weather

Basically:

45% chance of an epic mudbath

20% chance of a hot, dry festival

35% chance of a moderately muddy but tenable British summer climate

So it's still two bags of clothing at this point...

The article classes 2009 and 2013 as 'epic mudbaths' though - which they were not.

[pedmills]

2009 and 2013 weren't mudbaths, and I'd say that 2014 was.

[Ted Dansons Wig]

My partner is a bit of a mathemagician and weather nerd, he wrote up an article documenting the weather history of all past Glastos and predicting the odds for 2015. We've got a spreadsheet and everything. http://festivalsandgigs.com/history-and-predictions-glastonbury-festival-weather

Basically:

45% chance of an epic mudbath

20% chance of a hot, dry festival

35% chance of a moderately muddy but tenable British summer climate

So it's still two bags of clothing at this point...

2008 was dry AND rainy?

Defo rained on the Thursday but had stopped by Friday lunchtime

[SirDaniel]

Was 2014 really that bad? I know the storms were pretty spectacular, but my memories are predominantly of sunshine. I wouldn't say we've had a real mud bath since 2011.

[Gnomicide]

Devon Hammer's back!

We'renearly there folks...

[siblin]

That floating map of the uk in the Albert Dock used to have a happy,smiling man jumping around on it giving jolly weather updates every morning.

I wonder what happened to that lovely chap..............

Probably the way of that kindly old Australian gent who used to come and play funny songs at the festival.

[imamazed]

Was 2014 really that bad? I know the storms were pretty spectacular, but my memories are predominantly of sunshine. I wouldn't say we've had a real mud bath since 2011.

Saturday and Sunday were fine in terms of actual weather, but the Friday onslaught really did take its toll on many areas. I remember being exhausted on Sunday afternoon walking from West Holts to JPT.

[mr flow]

I'd say the last mudbath was 2007. 1998 was the last one before that in my opinion. The rest have been hard going for a day or so, but that's it.

[BeddyDriver]

2005 wasnt so much a mud bath, as a mud lake ?! Surely that one was the worst...floating portaloos, tents underwater, and 7 hours of thunderstorms !!

[tom22]

Saturday and Sunday were fine in terms of actual weather, but the Friday onslaught really did take its toll on many areas. I remember being exhausted on Sunday afternoon walking from West Holts to JPT.

yeah couldnt actually sit on the ground until sunday pm, and then was still spongy mud.

[wetflame]

Was 2014 really that bad? I know the storms were pretty spectacular, but my memories are predominantly of sunshine. I wouldn't say we've had a real mud bath since 2011.

Last year was my first, and as I remember it although it was sunny after those downpours, the damage was done and the ground got churned up to a muddy mess for the rest of the festival. The sun just made it stickier.

Yeah I just add up the mm's of rainfall predicted for wednesday, thursday, friday, saturday and sunday of the festival.

As we get closer more websites will start forecasting over the period of the festival. On the 3rd we only had 3 websites, and they all forecast 0.0mm.

Thanks! For a while I was confusedly thinking you were just tracking what the rainfall was like on that particular day during the month to give an average of what we could expect, but that doesn't make sense. This does!