Don't vote Tory

[H.M.V]

24 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

They had gotten away with it so far..... trouble is once the election was called that bubble was burst and people got to hear the actual policies.

It's still incredible how many Pro-Tory folk I've heard mouthing off making idiots of themselves as they'd clearly not even looked once at the Labour Manifesto; which echos my findings beforehand that almost everyone agreed with it and liked it until they heard who it was from, then the programmed prejudice kicked in.

Wow based on that, wouldn't it be interesting if you had to vote based purely on policies blind to personality and party. 

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

From May's point of view, it's about the only option.

She took her gamble (the didn't look like a gamble at the time), and we are were we are. It's either go with it, or call another election - where she might do worse.

The tory party tend to be a quite disciplined bunch, who know when it's better t keep their mouths shut and work with it, too. .... so ultimately the headbangers might accept a softer brexit to have a tory-controlled brexit rather than perhaps something else.

At some point May will be usurped, but at a time where it looks less like opportunism, and where they feel they can hopefully avoid the 'unelected' problem that had May feeling like she needed her own mandate (or alternatively, if they feel they can win an election - and bexit negotiating circumstances might give them that).

 

 

[zahidf]

HA

 

[srb]

The DUP MP for East Antrim ladies and gentlemen. Take it away Sammy....

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/video-news/video-youre-absolutely-right-mp-sammy-wilsons-apparent-response-to-get-the-ethnics-out-comment-34504356.html

[frostypaw]

19 minutes ago, H.M.V said:

Wow based on that, wouldn't it be interesting if you had to vote based purely on policies blind to personality and party. 

God forbid! That would be vastly harder to influence with a quick splash of cash. Might have to actually work for the people

[H.M.V]

22 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

God forbid! That would be vastly harder to influence with a quick splash of cash. Might have to actually work for the people

Silly me, how would Beelzebub Murdoch sell his papers. 

[HalfAnIdiot]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There's not necessarily a correlation, just as there's not necessarily a correlation between Corbyn having run a great campaign and how he'd do as PM.

Simple fact is, May has successfully negotiated with the EU before, and Jez hasn't.

And, I dislike saying it, May from that has grasped how they work, while Jez's inexperience has him giving the EU freebies, when they won't do freebies back.

May has demonstrated she is a weak leader unable to read a situation that she should have been on top of, and in denial as to the outcome.

She will be eaten alive in the brexit negotiations.

We are in trouble.

[H.M.V]

2 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

May has demonstrated she is a weak leader unable to read a situation that she should have been on top of, and in denial as to the outcome.

She will be eaten alive in the brexit negotiations.

We are in trouble.

Too right. If she can't even debate her position without flip flopping or with the opposition then how the fuck is she going to broker a deal with the top beans in Europe. She's weak, she's shown she's weak and now she has got into bed with the absolute worst of the worst. Baf decision after bad decisions. She is a joke and won't be brokering anything beneficial. Sooner she fucks off the better. I have nothing but contempt for the woman. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Plus now they only have a minority and have to get in bed with the DUP who want a soft Brexit, she has a terrible negotiating position. The EU will know she'll never get a hard Brexit through parliament now. She didn't necessarily want that in the first place but when it comes to negotiation, what you want and what you say (at least at the start) are obviously very different things. With a bigger majority a hard Brexit would've been a credible stance when negotiating, but she and that position no longer are. The EU negotiators must be laughing heir tits off right now.

[Gucci Piggy]

Theresa May is the David Moyes of the politics world.

[arcade fireman]

A few thoughts of my own..

I've said all along that if Corbyn achieved the unlikely and managed a hung Parliament he should stay. And of course he should. There is a massive difference for Labour between this situation and the Tories being on 330 seats. Had Tories got 330-335 seats I still would've thought Corbyn should go. Though I'm more confident in the possibility of Labour winning power under Corbyn than I was, I still can't erase doubts that he may struggle to go over the line and actually win power. Particularly if the Tories do get their act together and learn from the mistakes of the last campaign. With the Tories also getting a high vote %, even just winning a few of them over would have resulted in a Labour government. But would someone be able to do that whilst also hanging onto even half of the youth vote Corbyn attracted?

All that said, with the Tories being in such disarray it's all the more important Labour present a united front. This is where there's a huge difference between a hung Parliament situation and a small majority. People have said the Labour infighting cost Corbyn - I would argue it didn't - Labour's vote % was considerably higher than it was before the EU ref and I'd argue they won back the support they lost following that and then some. He also arguably benefited from the underdog status. But the conditions right now are perfect for the Corbyn project. Labour MPs should (and from the sounds of it will) get behind it. It's in everyone's interest to. If it succeeds and gets the Tories out then all good. If it fails despite all of this then Labour will definitively need to change tack - no excuses. 

However I'll also add that I hope people start paying attention to the polls a little more. Much will be made about how the polls showed Corbyn was so far behind and the end result disproved any need to look at the polls - but this would be the wrong conclusion to draw. The polls first told us about the surge. A couple of the polls got things very close and the ones that didn't were only due to adjustments which can be easily changed. Corbyn was performing badly amongst the electorate at the time. People were right to raise concerns about his performance. His surge during the campaign were a mix of a huge improvement in Corbyn's performance, attractive policies, a great turnout operation and the worst Tory campaign in living memory. Now the electorate do have a fair idea of what Corbyn is about. Early indications are that 26% of those who voted Labour made their mind up in the last few weeks. This is fairly fragile support. If a couple of years down the line Corbyn is well behind again, questions need to be asked because it is highly unlikely we will see that surge again.

Let's not forget this is still a loss. A hung parliament means Corbyn stays as does the core ethos of his message. There's much to be happy about. But the end result is a Tory government propped up by a hard right DUP. They could collapse. Or they could get a new leader who wins back some support. I hope the mood inside Labour accepts this a bit more than the triumphalist attitudes I'm seeing elsewhere - questions need to be asked what needs to change in order to get a majority. Simply carrying on exactly the same likely won't be enough. 

Indeed, some of the criticisms of Corbyn were right and part of the reason Corbyn did well was that he took them on board. His supporters said image didn't matter and blasted all suggestions that Corbyn should polish up/smarten up his image. But those presentation aspects are really important and Corbyn consistently looked smarter and fresher on the TV than May did. This was a man who would routinely run away from the media when being asked fairly innocuous questions (there's numerous videos) who became someone who was happy to jostle with Paxman and laugh at his line of questioning. 

His supporters also said that compromising on policy and triangulation was a thing of the past. But people have underestimated how much Corbyn did compromise. He eventually compromised of sorts on Trident. Miliband's Labour was pilloried for talking of "controls on immigration" - how is this different to the "managed migration" Corbyn talked about? His flagship policy used up a quarter of his budget on free tuition fees - something which arguably favours the middle class given the demographics that attend uni (something which even with the best will in the world won't change anytime soon). All this while not really pledging to up NHS spending by that much and keeping most of the Osborne welfare freeze. This isn't a criticism of the manifesto - I accept this is what helped him win so much of the youth vote. But evidence Corbyn triangulated and compromised in his own way and further compromises would probably be needed. Corbyn 2017 was quite different to Corbyn 2015. 

Scotland has to be considered winnable at the next election. The SNP are done for IMO - they lost a load of votes because they comitted to hold the independence referendum. But now they're putting it on the back burner they're probably at risk of losing a lot of their die hard pro independence support. If Labour do start looking like winning power, I think there'll be a big transfer of votes from the SNP to Labour to get rid of Tory MPs. Lots of SNP voters would have woken up horrified Scotland is propping up a Tory government. Labour have nothing to fear from the possibility of an informal agreement with the SNP at the next election. Those 2015 adverts showing Miliband in Salmond's pocket would be completely neutralised by the Tories going in with the DUP. 

 

Edited June 10, 2017 by arcade fireman

[Ommadawn]

Labour need to appeal more to the older voter (over 40) and, dare I say it, middle class punters. There was nothing in their manifesto for them. They are much more likely to question how all the wonderful promises made in the manifesto would be financed. I know the manifesto was said to be fully costed but in fact it wasn't really. All it would have taken was a slight dip in growth and before you know it you would have had a black hole. Labour need to ditch Corbyn and move slightly to the right and they might just make it next time. However, the Tories generally know how to win elections and you can be sure they won't make the same mistakes again. 

Edited June 10, 2017 by Ommadawn

[mikegday]

With UKIP dissapearing and not contesting the usual amount of seats, we ended up with effectively one party to the right of centre but a few left wing choices (Labour, Greens, Liberal Democrats, SNP, PC). A few seats would no longer be CON and would have helped establish a left wing alliance, without that fragmented vote, Amber Rudd, Zac Goldsmith, Telford, Southampton to name a few. FPTP is only suitable for 2 party politics and unless the left work together then I think it'll always be a uphill struggle. A real missed opportunity here I think to get a left alliance together. It's a matter of seats we're talking and Corbyn could have been PM, who knows if that opportunity will come again.

Edited June 10, 2017 by mikegday

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, arcade fireman said:

A few thoughts of my own..

I've said all along that if Corbyn achieved the unlikely and managed a hung Parliament he should stay. And of course he should. There is a massive difference for Labour between this situation and the Tories being on 330 seats. Had Tories got 330-335 seats I still would've thought Corbyn should go. Though I'm more confident in the possibility of Labour winning power under Corbyn than I was, I still can't erase doubts that he may struggle to go over the line and actually win power. Particularly if the Tories do get their act together and learn from the mistakes of the last campaign. With the Tories also getting a high vote %, even just winning a few of them over would have resulted in a Labour government. But would someone be able to do that whilst also hanging onto even half of the youth vote Corbyn attracted?

All that said, with the Tories being in such disarray it's all the more important Labour present a united front. This is where there's a huge difference between a hung Parliament situation and a small majority. People have said the Labour infighting cost Corbyn - I would argue it didn't - Labour's vote % was considerably higher than it was before the EU ref and I'd argue they won back the support they lost following that and then some. He also arguably benefited from the underdog status. But the conditions right now are perfect for the Corbyn project. Labour MPs should (and from the sounds of it will) get behind it. It's in everyone's interest to. If it succeeds and gets the Tories out then all good. If it fails despite all of this then Labour will definitively need to change tack - no excuses. 

However I'll also add that I hope people start paying attention to the polls a little more. Much will be made about how the polls showed Corbyn was so far behind and the end result disproved any need to look at the polls - but this would be the wrong conclusion to draw. The polls first told us about the surge. A couple of the polls got things very close and the ones that didn't were only due to adjustments which can be easily changed. Corbyn was performing badly amongst the electorate at the time. People were right to raise concerns about his performance. His surge during the campaign were a mix of a huge improvement in Corbyn's performance, attractive policies, a great turnout operation and the worst Tory campaign in living memory. Now the electorate do have a fair idea of what Corbyn is about. Early indications are that 26% of those who voted Labour made their mind up in the last few weeks. This is fairly fragile support. If a couple of years down the line Corbyn is well behind again, questions need to be asked because it is highly unlikely we will see that surge again.

Let's not forget this is still a loss. A hung parliament means Corbyn stays as does the core ethos of his message. There's much to be happy about. But the end result is a Tory government propped up by a hard right DUP. They could collapse. Or they could get a new leader who wins back some support. I hope the mood inside Labour accepts this a bit more than the triumphalist attitudes I'm seeing elsewhere - questions need to be asked what needs to change in order to get a majority. Simply carrying on exactly the same likely won't be enough. 

Indeed, some of the criticisms of Corbyn were right and part of the reason Corbyn did well was that he took them on board. His supporters said image didn't matter and blasted all suggestions that Corbyn should polish up/smarten up his image. But those presentation aspects are really important and Corbyn consistently looked smarter and fresher on the TV than May did. This was a man who would routinely run away from the media when being asked fairly innocuous questions (there's numerous videos) who became someone who was happy to jostle with Paxman and laugh at his line of questioning. 

His supporters also said that compromising on policy and triangulation was a thing of the past. But people have underestimated how much Corbyn did compromise. He eventually compromised of sorts on Trident. Miliband's Labour was pilloried for talking of "controls on immigration" - how is this different to the "managed migration" Corbyn talked about? His flagship policy used up a quarter of his budget on free tuition fees - something which arguably favours the middle class given the demographics that attend uni (something which even with the best will in the world won't change anytime soon). All this while not really pledging to up NHS spending by that much and keeping most of the Osborne welfare freeze. This isn't a criticism of the manifesto - I accept this is what helped him win so much of the youth vote. But evidence Corbyn triangulated and compromised in his own way and further compromises would probably be needed. Corbyn 2017 was quite different to Corbyn 2015. 

Scotland has to be considered winnable at the next election. The SNP are done for IMO - they lost a load of votes because they comitted to hold the independence referendum. But now they're putting it on the back burner they're probably at risk of losing a lot of their die hard pro independence support. If Labour do start looking like winning power, I think there'll be a big transfer of votes from the SNP to Labour to get rid of Tory MPs. Lots of SNP voters would have woken up horrified Scotland is propping up a Tory government. Labour have nothing to fear from the possibility of an informal agreement with the SNP at the next election. Those 2015 adverts showing Miliband in Salmond's pocket would be completely neutralised by the Tories going in with the DUP. 

 

I've always felt both sides are speaking bits of truth, but the mutual suspicion and hostility between the two sides up until now has just meant there's been infighting rather than shared ideas and learning.

I've always been a Corbyn supporter but I have also been desperate for the 'moderates' to start coming up with ideas- they've been on a go slow for 2 years now. I really hope we can all come together now as a party and the 'moderates' can start offering their expertise to help us appeal to Tory voters and swing voters. I'd love for some of the non-game playing ones to join the Shadow cabinet- Yvette Cooper to Home Office, Chukka to business. We really need to develop some strong ideas on helping small businesses and the self employed, honing our defense policy, housing etc etc.

We have a real opportunity- Tories are on the ropes, a brexit cock up or collapsed gvt in the middle of them and they are well and truly stuffed.

[babyblade41]

51 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

Labour need to appeal more to the older voter (over 40) and, dare I say it, middle class punters. There was nothing in their manifesto for them. They are much more likely to question how all the wonderful promises made in the manifesto would be financed. I know the manifesto was said to be fully costed but in fact it wasn't really. All it would have taken was a slight dip in growth and before you know it you would have had a black hole. Labour need to ditch Corbyn and move slightly to the right and they might just make it next time. However, the Tories generally know how to win elections and you can be sure they won't make the same mistakes again. 

I think the reason more of that age group don't identify with Corbyn is because they spent their young life working and dealing with  debt and see how hard it is to get out of ..just one slight change and the debt goes from workable to impossible to manage. I as I am past that age then have spent a long time to be completely debt free.. I only keep a 0 percent credit card for emergencies and have hardly used it 

The costings as you say were possibly worked out but they were never questioned about what  or how the debt would be serviced in a change.  The problem would be that the whole manifesto which promised so much to so many would no longer apply and there would be a scrabble to tip the sofas upside down to find any spare change...

I read somewhere  that the amount of revenue they could possibly raise from the top 5 percent would be approx 100 million or slightly more and yet the money needed for one of their pledges would cost billions 

The young naturally live for today where us older people know if you live now you will pay later 

I said earlier that he had such a great campaign and May had completely opposite and yet Corbyn still needed a lot more to cross the line.... Corbyn did well because May did so badly ...I'm not sure that is enough and his popularity to certain sectors could  dwindle. 

 

[arcade fireman]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

I've always felt both sides are speaking bits of truth, but the mutual suspicion and hostility between the two sides up until now has just meant there's been infighting rather than shared ideas and learning.

I've always been a Corbyn supporter but I have also been desperate for the 'moderates' to start coming up with ideas- they've been on a go slow for 2 years now. I really hope we can all come together now as a party and the 'moderates' can start offering their expertise to help us appeal to Tory voters and swing voters. I'd love for some of the non-game playing ones to join the Shadow cabinet- Yvette Cooper to Home Office, Chukka to business. We really need to develop some strong ideas on helping small businesses and the self employed, honing our defense policy, housing etc etc.

We have a real opportunity- Tories are on the ropes, a brexit cock up or collapsed gvt in the middle of them and they are well and truly stuffed.

It might be difficult though at times. Those who have objected to Corbyn have largely been amongst two lines - those who thought he had no chance of power and those whose politics were too different to his. Plenty had both concerns, but to varying degrees. As a general rule I think those who were more concerned about his electability will be happy to join up. Maybe less so those who couldn't join on a policy basis but that's fair enough as long as they behave - the Tories managed to succeed in the past with plenty of different views.

Also even the ones who are considered moderates may be happy to join - but they also would want their input into policy. How would that affect Labour's platform? Would it dilute Corbynism too much for his team? Also won't Corbyn want to reward those who have shown loyalty so far?

I agree it'd be good to have some of those names back, but it may well need some compromises in policy and that could be difficult even if they're trying to support the leadership more. 

 

[phil the shrew]

2 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

I've always been a Corbyn supporter but I have also been desperate for the 'moderates' to start coming up with ideas- they've been on a go slow for 2 years now. I really hope we can all come together now as a party and the 'moderates' can start offering their expertise to help us appeal to Tory voters and swing voters. I'd love for some of the non-game playing ones to join the Shadow cabinet- Yvette Cooper to Home Office, Chukka to business. We really need to develop some strong ideas on helping small businesses and the self employed, honing our defense policy, housing etc etc.

We have a real opportunity- Tories are on the ropes, a brexit cock up or collapsed gvt in the middle of them and they are well and truly stuffed.

Agree with this. After the better than expected election result for Labour I'd hope some behind the scenes work will take place in the party to get some of the more centralist Labour MP's back in the Shadow cabinet.

The turnaround from being about 27% in the polls to over 40% in the election was pretty amazing, but think the shadow cabinet is quite weak - much as I like her and she didn't deserve the stick she got, Diane Abbot isn't a Home Secretary and there are weaknesses elsewhere. While all the focus is on the EU negotiations there are massive challenges in Health, Social Security and Home affairs and Labour needs to really hold the DUP and Conservatives to the flame on all these issues and be ready for when/if the next election comes.

Conservatives will be in all sorts of trouble over the next two years which will be fund to watch but Labour must continue to change and develop not just rely on the Conservatives to shoot themselves in the foot 

[arcade fireman]

3 hours ago, Ommadawn said:

Labour need to appeal more to the older voter (over 40) and, dare I say it, middle class punters. There was nothing in their manifesto for them. They are much more likely to question how all the wonderful promises made in the manifesto would be financed. I know the manifesto was said to be fully costed but in fact it wasn't really. All it would have taken was a slight dip in growth and before you know it you would have had a black hole. Labour need to ditch Corbyn and move slightly to the right and they might just make it next time. However, the Tories generally know how to win elections and you can be sure they won't make the same mistakes again. 

I think it's difficult to say Labour need to ditch Corbyn. It's possible that a different leader may have a better chance of getting them over the line, probable that they might be better at attracting those Tory/Labour swing voters who might have won the election. But the sheer amount of other voters from other places (Lib Dem, Green, the non-voting young) is easy to underestimate and though their votes don't count for as much in FPTP, there are a lot of them. The absolute last thing Labour need right now is another leadership slog when the Tories are in such disarray. 

[Mr.Tease]

16 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

It might be difficult though at times. Those who have objected to Corbyn have largely been amongst two lines - those who thought he had no chance of power and those whose politics were too different to his. Plenty had both concerns, but to varying degrees. As a general rule I think those who were more concerned about his electability will be happy to join up. Maybe less so those who couldn't join on a policy basis but that's fair enough as long as they behave - the Tories managed to succeed in the past with plenty of different views.

Also even the ones who are considered moderates may be happy to join - but they also would want their input into policy. How would that affect Labour's platform? Would it dilute Corbynism too much for his team? Also won't Corbyn want to reward those who have shown loyalty so far?

I agree it'd be good to have some of those names back, but it may well need some compromises in policy and that could be difficult even if they're trying to support the leadership more. 

 

I think trident, Europe and immigration are three examples of a willingness to compromise that managed to not alienate anyone, so I'm optimistic!

[Zoo Music Girl]

3 hours ago, babyblade41 said:

I think the reason more of that age group don't identify with Corbyn is because they spent their young life working and dealing with  debt and see how hard it is to get out of ..just one slight change and the debt goes from workable to impossible to manage. I as I am past that age then have spent a long time to be completely debt free.. I only keep a 0 percent credit card for emergencies and have hardly used it 

The costings as you say were possibly worked out but they were never questioned about what  or how the debt would be serviced in a change.  The problem would be that the whole manifesto which promised so much to so many would no longer apply and there would be a scrabble to tip the sofas upside down to find any spare change...

I read somewhere  that the amount of revenue they could possibly raise from the top 5 percent would be approx 100 million or slightly more and yet the money needed for one of their pledges would cost billions 

The young naturally live for today where us older people know if you live now you will pay later 

I said earlier that he had such a great campaign and May had completely opposite and yet Corbyn still needed a lot more to cross the line.... Corbyn did well because May did so badly ...I'm not sure that is enough and his popularity to certain sectors could  dwindle. 

 

If you think young people don't know about debt you're much mistaken. Those who go to uni start their working life with  £40,000 of it. Those who don't are probably just as likely to have it. People of my age (34) have no hope ever of getting mortgage. I myself got into loads of debt at uni even though I worked 20 hours a week. The student loan I got didn't even cover rent. So people over 40 don't have a monopoly on debt.

Edited June 10, 2017 by Zoo Music Girl

[Spindles]

3 hours ago, babyblade41 said:

I read somewhere  that the amount of revenue they could possibly raise from the top 5 percent would be approx 100 million or slightly more and yet the money needed for one of their pledges would cost billions

No idea where you read that, but I can assure you it is absolute claptrap with no basis in reality.

[EasyUserName]

4 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

 ... I'd love for some of the non-game playing ones to join the Shadow cabinet- Yvette Cooper to Home Office, Chukka to business. ...

I stand to be corrected, but isn't the inclusion issue more down to the Corbyn team rather than people wanting to join in?

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

I stand to be corrected, but isn't the inclusion issue more down to the Corbyn team rather than people wanting to join in?

Hard to say for sure without insider knowledge, but many of the 'moderates' had senior posts, but nearly all quit during the attempted coup.

[EasyUserName]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Hard to say for sure without insider knowledge, but many of the 'moderates' had senior posts, but nearly all quit during the attempted coup.

It could be a perception thing, but I thought he (Corbyn) was very much "his team, his way & purge the rest" sort of person ...

[Trout Mask Replica]

The whole party now needs to rally around Corbyn if another election is imminent. All our big hitters, young talent and a few old firebrand on the front bench behind him. McDonnell and Abbot must now go. The Tories will recover quickly from this and we must be ready for them. We've won back the left, now we need the centre left with us. We also need to get some of the Tories core vote. That means being able to make a moral case for welfare/social care that is a widely seen as affordable but also of greater value than its cost. Tories struggle with this. They also hate the idea of freebies or scroungers so we'll need to get our heads around that next time too. We'll need to make a case for security and defence which has a moral justice at its core. 

Right now the Tories are writing off our manifesto as a load of unrealistic promises. Our case to the country must show people why they are realistic, affordable and most importantly why they should contribute to it. 

If the Tories try to hold on for the long term they will have a leadership contest, as a guy of 69 years old I'm not sure Corbyn will wait another 5 years to collect his pension and would imagine he'd be happy to see a newly reinvigorated party handed on to a worthy and younger successor. 

Edited June 11, 2017 by Trout Mask Replica