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The Weather Thread 2024


airwaves

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38 minutes ago, briddj said:

Time to go with today's 12Z! Let's see what's in store....

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

Markedly less rain on this run on Saturday afternoon and evening, nothing of concern, and it's then completely dry to gates open. Highs of 20-22 are great for any drying that might be necessary.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Warmer on this run. 18-19 for gates open and up to a high of 24. Completely dry.

 

image.thumb.png.c5464d589ee1044569a7cc6caecb6895.png

 

High pressure is dominant, but how will it develop?

 

image.png.a2aff37e9a341675743b43a1a2bb1efb.png

 

THURSDAY

Completely dry, highs of 23-24 (slightly up).

 

image.thumb.png.45c7efa28d8c93d3634b013630e32bb7.png

 

The high pressure is more in command on this run.

image.png.d2942a3942f676dd43777d44deb5dc0a.png

 

FRIDAY

Completely dry, highs of 23 - same as last run.

 

image.thumb.png.b6f48d29e4fc9f61d0f82f86678ed0d7.png

 

 

SATURDAY

 

The rain of the last run has completely disappeared. Totally dry with highs of 23. Slightly up.

image.thumb.png.c9d31c2d866f4472691944974b152dbe.png

 

You can see that on this run (on the right) the high is much stronger than in the previous run (on the left).

 

image.thumb.png.d52ae642e7e5e713cd17650825969fd1.png

 

SUNDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 24-25.

 

image.thumb.png.c699523fea1f62d3046b4e06a09f60f1.png

 

SUMMARY

 

We have reached just about the perfect forecast, unfortunately it's TOO EARLY for any confidence.

 

image.gif.9e39d704fd6c165d4993d49bdee3b99f.gif

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48 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The green line is the operational run that bridjj posted the charts for. As you can see it does not have much agreement with other runs. Best to look at the mean (red line) at the moment to spot the overall trend. Once we get down to 168 hours out that's when things will start to firm up.

The operational run is higher resolution than the other runs though, but we do need the others to fall in line.

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1 hour ago, Barneym said:

I’m sure it’s in here somewhere if I look back but what were the day/night temperatures last year? Out of all the festivals I’ve been to I think that was the most perfect, shorts all weekend even at night never too hot and never cold plus practically zero rain (and I was set up by the time it did on the Wednesday)


https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@7296108/historic

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2 hours ago, briddj said:

Time to go with today's 12Z! Let's see what's in store....

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

Markedly less rain on this run on Saturday afternoon and evening, nothing of concern, and it's then completely dry to gates open. Highs of 20-22 are great for any drying that might be necessary.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Warmer on this run. 18-19 for gates open and up to a high of 24. Completely dry.

 

image.thumb.png.c5464d589ee1044569a7cc6caecb6895.png

 

High pressure is dominant, but how will it develop?

 

image.png.a2aff37e9a341675743b43a1a2bb1efb.png

 

THURSDAY

Completely dry, highs of 23-24 (slightly up).

 

image.thumb.png.45c7efa28d8c93d3634b013630e32bb7.png

 

The high pressure is more in command on this run.

image.png.d2942a3942f676dd43777d44deb5dc0a.png

 

FRIDAY

Completely dry, highs of 23 - same as last run.

 

image.thumb.png.b6f48d29e4fc9f61d0f82f86678ed0d7.png

 

 

SATURDAY

 

The rain of the last run has completely disappeared. Totally dry with highs of 23. Slightly up.

image.thumb.png.c9d31c2d866f4472691944974b152dbe.png

 

You can see that on this run (on the right) the high is much stronger than in the previous run (on the left).

 

image.thumb.png.d52ae642e7e5e713cd17650825969fd1.png

 

SUNDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 24-25.

 

image.thumb.png.c699523fea1f62d3046b4e06a09f60f1.png

 

SUMMARY

 

We have reached just about the perfect forecast, unfortunately it's TOO EARLY for any confidence.

 


I’m almost turned on looking at this forecast. If it’s close to this, it’s 👌💋

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9 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

Dodgy GFS this morning after we finally got a bit of consistency!

 

Yep.  Washout Weds and Showery Sat/Sun.  You hate to see it.

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We go again with the 00Z!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

There's now effectively NO rain at the weekend. What there is would barely be noticeable.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Welcome to the rollercoaster! We now have torrential rain for when the gates open. Temps of 15-16.

 

image.thumb.png.a5d40a3525cdef35ebb0b9888e0e544b.png

 

Rain in the vicinity through the day and highs of just 17

image.thumb.png.989ebb3a11ee3016db89dc3cc3a97a40.png

 

The overnight 18Z and this have both been bad. In fact the last run (on the left) had low pressure even more dominant.

 

image.thumb.png.0d476ff8fdc56927a21770ad559db0b9.png

 

THURSDAY

 

Minor amount of rain. Highs of 19-20.

image.thumb.png.6b682329bb59ac423f934cebad51f3e3.png

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 20-21.

 

image.thumb.png.ae51a66fc881757fc54217bd8f22ee06.png

 

Still no sign of high pressure becoming dominant.

 

image.png.7a4c37c476ebdc9ed4176df9ebc502a2.png

SATURDAY

 

Little bit of rain around. Highs of 19.

image.thumb.png.f5944bf114d7691f76172f384b449322.png

SUNDAY

 

Dry, highs of 21-22.

 

image.thumb.png.47099ae27ae35dabbcb23fb26bd47b60.png

 

No high pressure, and a dirty low in the Atlantic.

 

image.png.2ed354ebfde315ce44501181d662fce2.png

SUMMARY

 

A definite downgrade, which has been in place for two consecutive runs with the overnight 18Z.

 

Remember, never get too confident.....

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As a lurker, a lot of people advising patience as we’re still 10 days out. how many days before can we say with reasonable certainty that this is what the weather will be.

 

Just so i can decide whether to buy a few wet weather items! 

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