The Weather Thread 2023

[dansy]

9 minutes ago, moheetoes said:

I take a couple of those roll up /flexible plastic drinks pouches with a sport cap on that you can get in summer for about £1 (sorry don’t know how to post a pic)with a clip on and use the sprayer part off one of these instead of the screw on sports cap - easier to ferry around than a rigid sprayer to fill at water points - works great as a mister 

Genius idea!! I love it. Thanks for the tip. 

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

I feel like a 5 year old- I’m choosing to ignore all the words and focusing on the pretty pictures 

[BambooShanks]

24 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

Is it all trending too well?

Are we all getting too comfortable, will later runs drop a bombshell?

I'm expecting it but as long its isolated to a run or two, its nothing to worry about.

 

 

[Clarence Clemons]

40 minutes ago, MYGEO said:

Guys its just a festival weather forum - relax

welcome to efestivals!

[MrsRookin]

4 hours ago, Jose Pose said:

But surely you can see the fact that there has been, at the very least, one day of each of the last festivals since 2016 that to you are unbearable or unmanageable is not some sort of weird unexplained phenomenon? They are simply par for the course and to be entirely expected for summer time.

I don’t think Fuzzy has suggested otherwise? Not seen a single comment saying that heat/sun is a surprise, just that it is often difficult to tolerate. I feel similarly, as I suspect so many others.

[The Nal]

Seems to be the time of the year when people go completely insane.

101 people reading a weather thread a week before the festival. 

Speaking of insanity, whats Gav's latest forecast?

[DeanoL]

35 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

My posts are simply saying that data that spans from 1991 (three decades ago) to 2020, isn’t going to be representative of how often we can expect to see temps of 25+ from 2023 into 2034 and so on. Do you disagree?

Pulled the data for the past 20 years and did a quick analysis, if you're interested.

 

Quote

Number of days over 25C Max at Hadcet:

2003	23
2004	9
2005	16
2006	24
2007	4
2008	5
2009	5
2010	6
2011	6
2012	4
2013	17
2014	11
2015	1
2016	9
2017	10
2018	31
2019	9
2020	15
2021	12
2022	18

So yeah if you look back recently, you're seeing higher numbers for sure. But then you have a run of far fewer days as recently as 2014-2017. Then 2018 has twice as many as the years that follow. While 2006 and 2003 had more than any year since 2018.

Funnily enough if you average them, you get 11.75 days, not 11, which is what I sort of guessed.

If you want you can average the past ten years and get 13.3, and tell me I'm wrong which, sure. You can win if you want. But hopefully you can see the point that while the numbers are slowly creeping up, there's still huge variance. 

[mazola]

Isn't exciting seeing who will get the last word in and claim victory

[albinolove]

This morning I woke up my wife at 0630 with the immortal words “ @briddj has some good news for us from the 18z”

Maybe that’s this years flag?

[stopwn1981]

6 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Seems to be the time of the year when people go completely insane.

101 people reading a weather thread a week before the festival. 

Speaking of insanity, whats Gav's latest forecast?

https://twitter.com/gavinpartridge/status/1669338286073200643?s=46&t=xboFxe-Q_ZdZpy-aA_a-7w

[DeanoL]

24 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

You’re massively overcomplicating it man, you weighed in with something about average temperatures being 18, with seemingly no understanding of what average actually means, then some stats about how often we’ve gone above 25 with data going back three decades which undermined your initial point that we don’t see 25 that often because your own stats prove there is (based on historical out of date data) a 50% chance that we’ll see temps above 25 at any given Glastonbury.

You proved my own point for me, which is that during a 5 day festival during BST, it is not uncommon to experience 25 degrees or more, your it own stats prove that. Do you disagree with that?

Beyond that I have no idea what point you’re trying to make?

I didn't weigh in with anything about average temperatures! Someone asked for a source on "average number of UK days over 25C Max is 11" and I provide a link to the MET office site that has the dataset. You then took the pretty graph on the front page of that, which had nothing to do with the data I was talking about, pasted it here, and started a discussion with me over it and global warming. You bought that graph up, not me! Like, sometimes, when people link to a website, they're not talking about the pictures!

The point I was trying to make: it's not uncommon, but statistically it happens less than half the time. So there will be more cases when it doesn't that when it does.

Meanwhile, chance of rain is much higher, and there's loads of "no frelling rain, no frelling compromise" folk on here. Which, given that, I thought it was really unfair for you to call out a guy who said he didn't like it when it was 25C and say maybe he shouldn't be going to the festival. I mean, yeah, okay, you have a point. But why not direct that same statement at everyone panicking about the rain. 'Cause there's plenty more to choose from. And it applies in just the same way. If you can't handle a bit of rain and mud, UK festivals in June are not for you either. Because that happens a lot too.

But it's easier to pile on the guy that doesn't like the heat because he's in the minority. And that's why you did it. 

And that, to me, seemed unfair. So I was just trying to show that actually,statistically, he's far more likely to get his wish than the NFR crowd. And that, amazingly, we're romanticising Glasto weather a bit.

[DeanoL]

10 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Seems to be the time of the year when people go completely insane.

101 people reading a weather thread a week before the festival. 

Speaking of insanity, whats Gav's latest forecast?

Mate, I'm sorry for every bad word I've ever said to/about your behaviour on this thread - because you vanish from this thread for a day and it becomes "it's almost certainly going to be hot every year".

I didn't think this thread needed someone telling people constantly it was going to be an apocalypse, but bizarrely, it does.

[squirrelarmy]

AC DC could be making a surprise visit on the Wednesday. 
 

[Mark Greensmith]

If a washout was going to happen, we would probably know by now correct?

 

Think i'm going with trainers and waterproof walking boots just to make sure, but i've resided in the acceptance that the weather is going to be okay...

Hopefully not rushing to get wellies on tuesday.

[FuzzyDunlop]

4 minutes ago, Mark Greensmith said:

If a washout was going to happen, we would probably know by now correct?

 

Think i'm going with trainers and waterproof walking boots just to make sure, but i've resided in the acceptance that the weather is going to be okay...

Hopefully not rushing to get wellies on tuesday.

If you have walking boots, don't bother with wellies. 

[Tranquility of Solitude]

[briddj]

3 minutes ago, Mark Greensmith said:

If a washout was going to happen, we would probably know by now correct?

 

Think i'm going with trainers and waterproof walking boots just to make sure, but i've resided in the acceptance that the weather is going to be okay...

Hopefully not rushing to get wellies on tuesday.

A few years ago I did the Ride 100 in Surrey. It had been 30 degrees for weeks, and was forecast to be that on the day through the run up.

Then, on the Wednesday, 4 days before, the forecast suddenly changed.

I did the Ride 100 in 4 continuous hours of torrential rain.

For this reason I'll never take advanced forecasts for granted.

[MrsRookin]

Ignore this idiot, replying to a post not realising I had missed about 6 pages worth of bickering….

[Johnnyseven]

Just now, briddj said:

A few years ago I did the Ride 100 in Surrey. It had been 30 degrees for weeks, and was forecast to be that on the day through the run up.

Then, on the Wednesday, 4 days before, the forecast suddenly changed.

I did the Ride 100 in 4 continuous hours of torrential rain.

For this reason I'll never take advanced forecasts for granted.

I did it that year too, didn't even look at the weather forecast beforehand as i'd done it the previous year in glorious weather and it was the summer - had done a miserable 80 miles before it stopped raining.

[JayDiesel]

If everyone keeps gettting angry at one another, their hot air will heat the climate enough to deem this thread null and void

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

10 minutes ago, Mark Greensmith said:

If a washout was going to happen, we would probably know by now correct?

 

Think i'm going with trainers and waterproof walking boots just to make sure, but i've resided in the acceptance that the weather is going to be okay...

Hopefully not rushing to get wellies on tuesday.

The famous 2005 storm only started to show up in forecasts the Sunday before the festival, and given models are looking at potential plume heat I wouldn't say that yet.

Looking pretty safe we won't have constant miserable rain a la 2007 though.  

[Ommadawn]

2 hours ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Still no idea what I'm looking at

You and me both.

It's a lovely day today though.

[badger80]

16 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

If you have walking boots, don't bother with wellies. 

You only really need them unless it's apocalyptic conditions on site. Put some in the boot of your car, just in case.  Walking boots all the way! 

[turricandanz]

Walking boots are a total last resort for me.... Trainers or Sliders..... or bare foot 😛

 

[4AssedMonkey]

21 minutes ago, Mark Greensmith said:

If a washout was going to happen, we would probably know by now correct?

Think i'm going with trainers and waterproof walking boots just to make sure, but i've resided in the acceptance that the weather is going to be okay...

Hopefully not rushing to get wellies on tuesday.

The signs/trends are promising and it's been so dry in the run up that the ground is solid and the water table low.  So this is good as the ground itself should be about as resilient as it can be.

However forecasting accuracy gets exponentially less accurate the further into the future you try to model it.  In theory you can predict with some accuracy about 2-3 days in front - and in stable conditions maybe a bit more.  The problem with Glasto is that the South West at this time of year is always a battle ground between low pressure in the north Atlantic and high pressure/warm air coming up from the Azores so it can swing either way relatively quickly.

I always take my wellies and wet weather gear.  Depending on the forecasts Mon/Tues next week I'll decide whether or not it stays in the car.