The Weather Thread 2022

[benc]

Just now, rascalpete said:

At what point do we start to have real confidence in the early days at least?

i think there is confidence is the early days, everything else is knife edge

[jimmillen]

56 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Just driven cross the border and it’s still passing down.  Fish and chips in Tebay services beckons

Tebay services 😍

[Sheffield Steve]

OK, so we’ve had the UK model (UKMO), the European model (ECM), American model (GFS) and the Canadian model (GEM).  It’s time we talked about the German model (ICON).  It only goes out to Friday so far, but is the only model to introduce a bit of a wobble on the Friday by putting a low right over the UK.   It remains to be seen if it sticks with this, but it has the potential to produce some rain/showers on the Friday.  Temperatures don’t look too bad though. We’ll know this time tomorrow what it thinks is happening on the Saturday too.  Do the Germans know best?

[The Nal]

Just now, rascalpete said:

At what point do we start to have real confidence in the early days at least?

Monday afternoon.

210 pages of utter bollocks thus far.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, rascalpete said:

At what point do we start to have real confidence in the early days at least?

Sunday

[briddj]

So, let the music commence. Is there any way back from the low pressure?

FRIDAY

There appears to be the danger of some rain around in the afternoon, with highs of 26.

The rain could be one to keep an eye on over the next days. Around the site 3pm to 9pm on Friday.

 

But hang on a minute! There is some concern creeping in here. The low is trying to fight back. Will it make an impression over the weekend? Latest on the left.

Edited June 17, 2022 by briddj

[benc]

1 minute ago, Sheffield Steve said:

OK, so we’ve had the UK model (UKMO), the European model (ECM), American model (GFS) and the Canadian model (GEM).  It’s time we talked about the German model (ICON).  It only goes out to Friday so far, but is the only model to introduce a bit of a wobble on the Friday by putting a low right over the UK.   It remains to be seen if it sticks with this, but it has the potential to produce some rain/showers on the Friday.  Temperatures don’t look too bad though. We’ll know this time tomorrow what it thinks is happening on the Saturday too.  Do the Germans know best?

We voted for Brexit and this includes not longer using the European models. We're global britain now, and should be looking to american and Canadian models

[steviewevie]

🤣

[Barneym]

I’m sure it’s been covered but we are 200 plus pages in, what was the actual temperature on the Saturday of 2019 (which was way to bloody hot)

[gherkin8r]

3 minutes ago, Barneym said:

I’m sure it’s been covered but we are 200 plus pages in, what was the actual temperature on the Saturday of 2019 (which was way to bloody hot)

Pretty sure it was 31.something officially 

[briddj]

Will the high pressure hold for the weekend?

SATURDAY

Totally dry, with highs on 21 - slightly cooler than the last run.

The pressure is lower on this run (on the left) but the low doesn't make any impression and is kept north of the UK.

[Tom White]

3 minutes ago, Barneym said:

I’m sure it’s been covered but we are 200 plus pages in, what was the actual temperature on the Saturday of 2019 (which was way to bloody hot)

It was 400 billion degrees. I remember queueing for a turn in some shade  - I think near  the John Peel tent. 

In the end I went back to camping to feel sorry for myself.

And I'd still rather have full sun/heat that 4metres of mud and it tipping down all week. 

[briddj]

Are we home and, quite literally, dry?

SUNDAY

Totally dry yet again, with highs of 20.

Quite a similar pressure picture between the runs. High pressure in control.

 

SUMMARY

I reckon many will feel this is a much better run, with lower temperatures over the weekend. In fact, it could be close to perfect.

Wednesday - 21
Thursday - 24
Friday - 26
Saturday - 21
Sunday - 20

But we're still a week out and it's TOO SOON. Let's hope we're still looking like this for the 12Z on Sunday.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by briddj

[FLB]

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, briddj said:

Are we home and, quite literally, dry?

SUNDAY

Totally dry yet again, with highs of 20.

Quite a similar pressure picture between the runs. High pressure in control.

 

SUMMARY

I reckon many will feel this is a much better run, with lower temperatures over the weekend. In fact, it could be close to perfect.

But we're still a week out and it's TOO SOON. Let's hope we're still looking like this for the 12Z on Sunday.

 

 

ok, apart from potential of rain on friday afternoon that is a better forecast imo.

[Ed90]

Still way way too soon to be sure of anything from Friday onwards.  But Weds and Thus are starting to look promising at least....

[steviewevie]

Friday is the hottest and the wettest.

[Familiar2billions]

Decent start to the weekend... Keep the faith!!!

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Friday is the hottest and the wettest.

actually maybe Thursday is the hottest day

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, briddj said:

Are we home and, quite literally, dry?

SUNDAY

Totally dry yet again, with highs of 20.

Quite a similar pressure picture between the runs. High pressure in control.

 

SUMMARY

I reckon many will feel this is a much better run, with lower temperatures over the weekend. In fact, it could be close to perfect.

But we're still a week out and it's TOO SOON. Let's hope we're still looking like this for the 12Z on Sunday.

 

 

I'm now officially living this thread vicariously through FuzzyDunlop, who I will not tag, in case he's stopped reading for his sanity.  But if you are- how do you feel about this run?  One hard day, then plan sailing afterwards, right?

[K2SO]

This is perfect. Please stick.

[The Nal]

6 minutes ago, Barneym said:

I’m sure it’s been covered but we are 200 plus pages in, what was the actual temperature on the Saturday of 2019 (which was way to bloody hot)

30c for a couple of hours. It was fine.

 

Heres the Met Office forecast from June 17th 2019

Glastonbury weather forecast 2019: Met Office predict rain during the music festival

On Wednesday, it's likely there'll be light rain shower and a moderate breeze, with some sunny spells.

The next day, however, rain is forecast for most of the day, with a moderate breeze.

 

Much like this thread, lots of "the weather is going to be X, but we really dont know" cobblers. 

[AlexOvd]

Not very fan of that low. Still extremely TIGHT. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by AlexOvd

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, AlexOvd said:

Not very fan of that low. Still extremely TIGHT. 

[parsonjack]

1 hour ago, CrystalPalace said:

Tebay: The king of services!

Only equalled by its younger sibling Gloucester Services on M5 👍