The Weather Thread 2022

[CaledonianGonzo]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ECM agrees with GFS

Jesus fucking christ

[Ed90]

Next run has started. Strap in

[steviewevie]

can't wait to be standing in the freezing rain listening to Diana Ross mime badly.

[PolygonWindow]

I think as long as Wed and Thur look ok, Fri Sat and Sun can be put down to being too far away.

[benc]

At this point, can we at least rule out snow?

[Billy Corgan's Ego]

2 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Jesus fucking christ

This is 8 days away. Well outside any timeframes of real confidence

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

can't wait to be standing in the freezing rain listening to Diana Ross mime badly.

You wanted cold weather so you can’t complain. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, benc said:

At this point, can we at least rule out snow?

Not sure about snow...sleet and hail maybe...?

[Joshuwarr]

BBC now predicting a very nice Wednesday. All a bit downhill from there!

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

You wanted cold weather so you can’t complain. 

I wanted 18C

[steviewevie]

Looks like Pilton getting some rain today...

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

[CaledonianGonzo]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

can't wait to be standing in the freezing rain listening to Diana Ross mime badly.

Watched her take audience requests last night. Unless she's planting drunken Glaswegian housewives living their best lives into the crowd she's not miming.

[parsonjack]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Looks like Pilton getting some rain today...

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Raining in Frome right now.....

[Euphoricape]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ECM agrees with GFS

[Euphoricape]

Must have updated since, nowhere near so bad now

[CaledonianGonzo]

Mon the high!

[LinvoyPrimus]

1 minute ago, FloorFiller said:

I have no idea how much faith we put in Accuweather, but they’re saying cloudy/sunny and mid/high teens all weekend with only a tiny amount of rain, so I’m putting all my eggs in their basket. 

Which is roughly in line with what BBC and Met Office are saying/have consistently been saying. Hard to call it a trend but there's a consistency.

Looking at these runs in isolation is just a nightmare.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Must have updated since, nowhere near so bad now

weird...is that 00Z? On netweather site has this for Sun 6pm.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf

 

 

[Billy Corgans hair]

The highs lost

[steviewevie]

weather from tomorrow to wednesday would be spot on.

[Ed90]

Looking at the latest GFS unfolding it seems there's a fair bit of certainty over what will happen up until Tuesday, but then there are so many different areas of pressure battling it out that I can see (even though I know nothing about this) why there's so much uncertainty/changeability in the forecasts. 

[Sheffield Steve]

In another ray of hope, the U.K. Met office model has the low further north.  It’s only out to midnight Friday night, and would undoubtably bring some rain/showers, but nowhere near as bad as ECM or GFS. 
 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Sheffield Steve

[Euphoricape]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

weird...is that 00Z? On netweather site has this for Sun 6pm.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf

 

 

Yeah it's from netweather. No idea why we ate getting different results. This seems in line with met office etc.. there's still hope.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

In another ray of hope, the U.K. Met office model has the low further north.  It’s only out to midnight Friday, and would undoubtably bring some rain/showers, but nowhere near as bad as ECM or GFS. 
 

this is what GFS (previous run) has for same time...

[briddj]

WEDNESDAY MORNING - GATES OPEN

Rain is showing through this evening. After that, it's dry until the gates open on Wednesday morning. 

Temps on Wednesday morning at 19. Higher, so could be a positive for the run. Maybe.

PRESSURE MAPS

Continues to be a very, very similar picture through to Wednesday morning.

Yet, we've know for quite a while that this pattern has had high confidence.

Latest chart is on the left.

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by briddj