When will this shit end?

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

The concept is - if you engage your brain for a moment - to have the exit wave in the summer while the NHS can cope so it can then deal with the usual winter issues.  Chris endorses this message.

The NHS will be stretched this winter regardless of when we open up, but obviously getting the exit wave now is better.

But just assuming that everyone at the NHS and Whitty are smoking DMT and having a laugh about the whole situation is naive beyond belief. 

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

'Fine for now' - is different to 'The NHS will be fine'.

The NHS is going to come under a lot of pressure this winter, regardless of how you want to spin it. Particularly if cases are totally rampant. 

I've always maintained that I think any summer easing, including the current levels of freedom we have, is probably a temporary reprieve ahead of winter and that view isn't changing- the stories about Manchester hospitals being at winter levels now, cases of covid in vaccinated people (as Chris whitty said - that'll always happen).

I just don't see a fully open society this winter without vastly increased nhs capacity. If they could staff them the nightingales would be good as anyone who needs oxygen and nothing more could be sent there, but there seem to be no public plans for capacity, just "coping"

[efcfanwirral]

I also think vaccine passports will be used for about a month to keep everything open before they realise its still spreading because its winter 

[st dan]

5 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

'Fine for now' - is different to 'The NHS will be fine'.

The NHS is going to come under a lot of pressure this winter, regardless of how you want to spin it. Particularly if cases are totally rampant. 

The NHS comes under pressure every single winter anyway, regardless of Covid. There are always ways to stretch capacity if required. 

[MrBarry465]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I've always maintained that I think any summer easing, including the current levels of freedom we have, is probably a temporary reprieve ahead of winter and that view isn't changing- the stories about Manchester hospitals being at winter levels now, cases of covid in vaccinated people (as Chris whitty said - that'll always happen).

I just don't see a fully open society this winter without vastly increased nhs capacity. If they could staff them the nightingales would be good as anyone who needs oxygen and nothing more could be sent there, but there seem to be no public plans for capacity, just "coping"

I agree.

It's not unreasonable to think they are trying to give people as much freedom as possible before a potential winter lockdown. 

Not saying it WILL happen, but I think people need to read between the lines and view it as a nuanced situation. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by MrBarry465

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

The NHS comes under pressure every single winter anyway, regardless of Covid. There are always ways to stretch capacity if required. 

You can't just turn that capacity on and off like a tap though can you?

[Fuzzy Afro]

8 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

'Fine for now' - is different to 'The NHS will be fine'.

The NHS is going to come under a lot of pressure this winter, regardless of how you want to spin it. Particularly if cases are totally rampant. 

I specifically said not to panic when we see 100,000 cases a day a few weeks after the July reopening. Nothing to do with the winter.

 

By winter it will be endemic and we’ll have to learn how to deal with it. If that includes restrictions then we are probably looking at restrictions every winter for 5 years until a fully sterilising vaccine is developed. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

You can't just turn that capacity on and off like a tap though can you?

Put covid patients in the nightingales and staff them with the army has always been my solution. Keep the normal hospitals as covid free as possible to allow other treatments to continue. 

[MrBarry465]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I specifically said not to panic when we see 100,000 cases a day a few weeks after the July reopening. Nothing to do with the winter.

 

By winter it will be endemic and we’ll have to learn how to deal with it. If that includes restrictions then we are probably looking at restrictions every winter for 5 years until a fully sterilising vaccine is developed. 

Just to be clear 'leaning how to deal with it', could also include 'learning how to live with lockdowns for certain periods of time'.

They aren't separate. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by MrBarry465

[st dan]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

You can't just turn that capacity on and off like a tap though can you?

You can if you move wards around and cancel non urgent operations etc. Both things they do every winter anyway.  They’ll have contingency plans ready if needed - the NHS was ‘stretched to capacity’ last April in the first wave, yet somehow found room for 40% more patients this January in the second wave. It will be a strain, but I don’t think they’ll have any major issues in managing it.   

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I agree.

It's not unreasonable to think they are trying to give people as much freedom as possible before a potential winter lockdown. 

Not saying it WILL happen, but I think people need to read between the lines and view it as a nuanced situation. 

 

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Put covid patients in the nightingales and staff them with the army has always been my solution. Keep the normal hospitals as covid free as possible to allow other treatments to continue. 

That is the best solution if they can do it. 

It's also telling that our new health sec talked about more than just "our wonderful vaccine programme" which does give me some hope that we might be looking a little more widely than just vaccines, so all this could change. Hancock was obsessed, it felt to the detriment of everything else 

[MrBarry465]

Just now, st dan said:

You can if you move wards around and cancel non urgent operations etc. Both things they do every winter anyway.  They’ll have contingency plans ready if needed - the NHS was ‘stretched to capacity’ last April in the first wave, yet somehow found room for 40% more patients this January in the second wave. It will be a strain, but I don’t think they’ll have any major issues in managing it.   

Just to be clear, NHS staff are also not robots - I know for a fact there are a lot of people who work for the NHS (doctors and a nurse) who are struggling.

We cannot expect that humans can operate at 100% capacity 100% of the time.

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I am making the mistake of engaging @MrBarry465 again lol 

Back to ignoring you 😛 

No worries dickhead, doesn't bother me. 

You are not capable of having a nuanced discussion anyway.

Edited June 30, 2021 by MrBarry465

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Just to be clear 'leaning how to deal with it', could also include 'learning how to live with lockdowns for certain periods of time'.

They aren't separate. 

You seriously think annual lockdowns are a genuine option here?

[fraybentos1]

41 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

With so many double vaccinated people catching it, is herd immunity even possible? I always thought "live with it" was a meaningless soundbite but come winter season, will it just be the fault of the unvaccinated (who we know will be blamed) or is it just endemic now? There seems to be this belief that if we just inject enough people it'll go away but there's no evidence of this 

 

Not sure where to start with this one...

First of all what does 'so many' double vaccinated people catching it even mean? 2 jags will protect most people and if they get it from that point they will likely be fine.

Also, consensus for a long time has been that covid will never go away so not sure what you're on about there.

[balthazarstarbuck]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

You can if you move wards around and cancel non urgent operations etc. Both things they do every winter anyway.  They’ll have contingency plans ready if needed - the NHS was ‘stretched to capacity’ last April in the first wave, yet somehow found room for 40% more patients this January in the second wave. It will be a strain, but I don’t think they’ll have any major issues in managing it.   

From speaking to friends who worked A&E last winter, they did that by closing paediatric wards and setting up wards in car parks, which ain’t really sustainable.  There were major issues that can’t be the norm every year, especially if you want to be treated for stuff that isn’t Covid, or for the staff to still be there next year.

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I will just wait here ready to pounce when you make the next story up 😛 

For someone obsessed with 'lockdown' ending, you spend a hell of a lot of time waiting in the shadows on this forum I'll give you that. 

[MrBarry465]

5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

You seriously think annual lockdowns are a genuine option here?

Whatever becomes the norm will become the norm.

I never thought I would see a pandemic in my lifetime and yet here we are? 

Saying things like 'oh that will never happen here' or 'it's not possible' is naive. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by MrBarry465

[Fuzzy Afro]

Here’s what will actually happen over the next 5 years IMO.

 

Remember that a normal flu season kills 5,000-7,000 and a bad flu season kills 20,000.

 

Basically flu and covid will combine to make every winter “bad” for the next 5 years and we’ll be looking at 20,000-30,000 deaths per winter from respiratory viruses until a sterilising vaccine is found.

 

Annual booster jabs for over 50’s (given alongside flu jabs) will prevent an even higher number of deaths and the NHS being in danger of overwhelm.

 

We’ll see a bit of a culture shift where people are encouraged to stay at home as much as possible if they get sick, and if they absolutely do have to go out they would be advised to wear a face covering in indoor spaces. Coverings will not be mandatory or even recommended in healthy individuals.

 

Annual lockdowns aren’t even part of the equation unless we start seeing exponential growth in hospitalisations and death numbers like we did in March 2020 and January 2021. 

[Crazyfool01]

10 minutes ago, st dan said:

You can if you move wards around and cancel non urgent operations etc. Both things they do every winter anyway.  They’ll have contingency plans ready if needed - the NHS was ‘stretched to capacity’ last April in the first wave, yet somehow found room for 40% more patients this January in the second wave. It will be a strain, but I don’t think they’ll have any major issues in managing it.   

The problem is we also now have an increasing backlog of other stuff that needs to be done … everything is already going to be stretched … it won’t take much to snap that elastic band 

[Zoo Music Girl]

52 minutes ago, northernringo said:

We can do that in Northern Ireland. When booking, we have a choice and you can get an earlier appointment if you go for AZ as an under 40 or 30 or whatever the guidance is!

Yeah this makes sense to me. 

And as Toilet Duck says, more is known about the issue now so diagnosis and treatment for the very unlucky few who have issues would be improved.

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Not sure where to start with this one...

First of all what does 'so many' double vaccinated people catching it even mean? 2 jags will protect most people and if they get it from that point they will likely be fine.

Also, consensus for a long time has been that covid will never go away so not sure what you're on about there.

Honestly most people I've talked to about it think there will be no cases ever once enough people are vaccinated. They think its antivaxx/conspiracy theory to suggest otherwise. They are indeed being unrealistic but its not entirely their fault as they just read headlines. The idea of someone catching it even mildly is scary to them because the messaging to people who don't pay as much attention as us on here does seems to have made it sound like the vaccine will kill the virus for good. 

"So many" as in enough anecdotal and real accounts (Andrew Marr for example) of it happening in the hot summer months surely show it'll happen in the traditional winter months too. Most will be fine yes but even Chris whitty has said some will still die, go into hospital etc. If it could be treated without isolating wards you'd assume it'd be easier. Or of course in a separate site altogether (apart from icu)

[fraybentos1]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Honestly most people I've talked to about it think there will be no cases ever once enough people are vaccinated. They think its antivaxx/conspiracy theory to suggest otherwise. They are indeed being unrealistic but its not entirely their fault as they just read headlines. The idea of someone catching it even mildly is scary to them because the messaging to people who don't pay as much attention as us on here does seems to have made it sound like the vaccine will kill the virus for good. 

"So many" as in enough anecdotal and real accounts (Andrew Marr for example) of it happening in the hot summer months surely show it'll happen in the traditional winter months too. Most will be fine yes but even Chris whitty has said some will still die, go into hospital etc. If it could be treated without isolating wards you'd assume it'd be easier. Or of course in a separate site altogether (apart from icu)

Of course people are still gonna die. People die every single day. The vaccine programme is about making covid a manageable disease like flu is, doesn't mean no one dies. 

The vaccines are amazing, way better than the flu ones and immunity in the population grows everyday.

[fraybentos1]

If we locked down every winter think alot of people would lob themselves off a bridge. What a miserable existence that would be.

[steviewevie]

N Korea could be in trouble

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/30/north-korea-covid-outbreak-fears-after-kim-jong-un-warns-of-huge-crisis-in-antivirus-fight