When will this shit end?

[Copperface]

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Yes, possibly.

That's an almost-nothing restriction (except for gigs and festivals, obvs). We'll get to almost nothing as far as restrictions go by early summer*, long before vaccine rollout gets to the 65-70% mark.

(*based on getting the oxford vac approved, and it working as claimed).

You've now edged away from 'all done at Easter' and closer to what I've always said.

For most of the population a great deal of normality will have returned by summer, but I can see crowd limits and some other generic control measures in both entertainment and sporting crowd contexts remaining until that 60-70% target has been achieved.

Most people won't give a damn when they can have a party or barbecue at home, go off to Spain for a couple of weeks and sit in a pub garden with their mates.

However we don't exist in a bubble (no pun intended). We live in a highly interconnected world and once we hit our summer, many other parts of the world will be coming into their winter and, especially in less developed countries, and it is likely there will be huge increases both in infection rates and also now evidently virus mutations in some of those countries (look at news re S Africa and Nigeria today). Controls will be in place to mitigate any influx of that into the UK/Europe irrespective of what happens in the UK. I'm supposed to be going to South Africa next summer, but looking at what is happening there now and where they might be in the depths of their winter (June/july) given vaccine availability etc, I'm not hopeful. I can see the Lions Tour either being called off or moving to autumn.

To a lesser extent normal day to day generalised social distancing and mask wearing advice will be with us a a very long time yet even after we have hit that target and will become almost second nature. But what the general population might perceive to be 'almost nothing' restrictions will be anything but. Just because it doesn't affect them doesn't mean they are not in place.

 

[zahidf]

 

Schools  banned in tier 4 by accident.

[Guest]

Another poll:

 

[DeanoL]

21 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Dianne Abbot gets so much unjustified hate, when she seems like a really good MP and person. It’s horrible some of the stuff you see her get online. 

I remember in 2010 when the results were coming in, and it was so tight everyone was doing the coalition maths, and it looked like a “rainbow” coalition might work, with a wide swathe of parties forming a majority.

The I saw Diane Abbot on the news saying that wouldn’t happen as Labour had lost and the Tories should get to be in charge. And she wouldn’t even join such a coalition. She wasn’t the only backbencher saying that, but she was the one on the news channel I was watching. Not been able to stand her since.

4 hours ago, Copperface said:

Compared to the shitshow currently in office and producing this daily disaster on so many fronts, I'd take Blair back with no second thoughts.

I’m a lifelong Labour voter and would have given my right nut to have Cameron back this year.

[DeanoL]

If we drop all the restrictions, or even most, as soon as the vulnerable are vaccinated, then we are accepting that most people are actually going to catch it. In which case you don’t actually need loads of vaccines.

It’s also worth noting that everything we have done so far is to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, but that also gives other benefits that may still be important. If the virus is allowed to run through the population with no controls, you get things like huge portions of the population off work sick all at once. That’s not something that warrants the level of restrictions we have today, but may warrant some sort of response.

(Also: “go out and catch it” is not going to be an appealing prospect to many when they know they can get a vaccine in a few months)

[Guest]

 

[Crazyfool01]

what was the latest ONS for numbers that have had it ? 10% ? if we had another 10% with this highly infectious strain .... then surely herd immunity with the vaccine might be achieved sooner ?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

If we drop all the restrictions, or even most, as soon as the vulnerable are vaccinated, then we are accepting that most people are actually going to catch it. In which case you don’t actually need loads of vaccines.

It’s also worth noting that everything we have done so far is to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, but that also gives other benefits that may still be important. If the virus is allowed to run through the population with no controls, you get things like huge portions of the population off work sick all at once. That’s not something that warrants the level of restrictions we have today, but may warrant some sort of response.

(Also: “go out and catch it” is not going to be an appealing prospect to many when they know they can get a vaccine in a few months)

Depends on the age group of that last paragraph, the overriding majority of younger people don’t give it a second thought as it is.

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

This is significant 

hopefully they have a supply in a lorry at Dover 

[Guest]

So it looks like quite a few areas will be in tier 4 from Boxing Day, as they have serious concerns over this new variant. Which begs the question if they are that concerned then why allow households to mix the day before!?

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

So it looks like quite a few areas will be in tier 4 from Boxing Day, as they have serious concerns over this new variant. Which begs the question if they are that concerned then why allow households to mix the day before!?

so its likely to be other areas ... not a national one ? I cant see how they can limit it ... cases are surging everywhere now arent they ? 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

so its likely to be other areas ... not a national one ? I cant see how they can limit it ... cases are surging everywhere now arent they ? 

From what I’m seeing on The Guardian and other news sites it seems to be a few areas and not nationwide at this stage. 

[Euphoricape]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

From what I’m seeing on The Guardian and other news sites it seems to be a few areas and not nationwide at this stage. 

I've also read that a lot of lower tier areas will be moved to tier 3.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

From what I’m seeing on The Guardian and other news sites it seems to be a few areas and not nationwide at this stage. 

just kicking the can further down the road .... hopefully vaccine starts to influence but cant see that being for a good month yet .... 

[ace56blaa]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

just kicking the can further down the road .... hopefully vaccine starts to influence but cant see that being for a good month yet .... 

Kicking the can down the road is all the government can do, when it doesn't fix and put track and trace in place, when it doesn't offer money for isolating for everyone who needs, when it so often goes beyond the threshold of what can be open in a pandemic. 

I hate it because people will say "LOCKDOWNS DONT WORK" like they always do, but teh lockdown works, the government doesn't

[st dan]

There are going to be issues if areas move into Tier 4 from Boxing Day onwards.
I’m assuming many people currently living outside of Tier 4 will be cracking on with their Christmas plans, originally based around the 5 day relaxation. Certainly people that had planned to travel some distance to their parents etc aren’t going to be driving there and back on Christmas Day. 
Not that they are likely to do anything to enforce it mind. 

[zahidf]

Face masks lower the risk of spreading large Covid-linked droplets when speaking or coughing by up to 99.9%, a lab experiment with mechanical mannequins and human subjects has found.

A woman standing two metres from a coughing man without a mask will be exposed to 10,000 times more large droplets than if he were wearing one, even if he is only 50 centimetres away, researchers reported in the journal Royal Society Open Science.

The study focused on particles larger than 170 microns in diameter, which are understood to be the main driver of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

“There is no more doubt whatsoever that face masks can dramatically reduce the dispersion of potentially virus-laden droplets,” senior author Ignazio Maria Viola, an expert in applied fluid dynamics at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Engineering, told AFP.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, Washington, 55,000 lives could be saved in the United States over the next four months if a policy of universal mask use were adopted.

[Euphoricape]

Has it been confirmed anywhere yet that there will be a statement later today on new restrictions?

[xxialac]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Face masks lower the risk of spreading large Covid-linked droplets when speaking or coughing by up to 99.9%, a lab experiment with mechanical mannequins and human subjects has found.

A woman standing two metres from a coughing man without a mask will be exposed to 10,000 times more large droplets than if he were wearing one, even if he is only 50 centimetres away, researchers reported in the journal Royal Society Open Science.

The study focused on particles larger than 170 microns in diameter, which are understood to be the main driver of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

“There is no more doubt whatsoever that face masks can dramatically reduce the dispersion of potentially virus-laden droplets,” senior author Ignazio Maria Viola, an expert in applied fluid dynamics at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Engineering, told AFP.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, Washington, 55,000 lives could be saved in the United States over the next four months if a policy of universal mask use were adopted.

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it, you selfish anti-masker pricks.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it, you selfish anti-masker pricks.

so many people without .... I wish there was a way of defining the exempt though  ... Im sure so many are now taking the piss ... ive a family at work .... one said there was no way he was f ing wearing one ... then when the rule came in he was exempt .... then his mum became exempt and now is sister is too ..... Someone else had cold sores and had stopped wearing hers .... someone else says they give him nosebleeds ..... Its franky ridiculous in comparison to someone being severely ill or dying 😞 

[Guest]

 

[efcfanwirral]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

Haha the PM isn't fancying giving more bad news then! 

[Euphoricape]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

I wish they would just bring in national action now. Delaying the inevitable, causing more uncertainty and anxiety.

[Guest]

Just now, Euphoricape said:

I wish they would just bring in national action now. Delaying the inevitable, causing more uncertainty and anxiety.

I agree. I wish they do it now, to try to make as big a dent in the virus as possible and save lives. I can’t see a reason for not doing it from tomorrow tbh. 

[Euphoricape]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I agree. I wish they do it now, to try to make as big a dent in the virus as possible and save lives. I can’t see a reason for not doing it from tomorrow tbh. 

Especially with schools all off now, the sooner the better imo.