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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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57 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Hi Folks, had a quick look around and it's not entirely clear whether he is referring to the strain that has swept across Europe over the last couple of months, or an entirely new one emerging (the way its phrased, it seems like another new strain that has emerged rather than the D614G variant or the 20A.EU1 cluster that emerged in Spanish farm workers first). However, the long and short of it is that the virus will drift. They all do. Untangling the data to determine whether it's more infectious, or causes more severe disease needs it to be isolated and actual lab studies to be done...it can be very hard to make out from transmission dynamics alone (big founder effects can make it seem like a particular strain spreads more easily, but it's just that a load of infected people get introduced into a population and that one takes over for a bit). The most reassuring thing is that all of the mutations don't seem to materially change the spike protein much, given that it's crucial for entry into our cells, there's a selective pressure on the virus to keep this largely the same...and since that's what we've used to make our vaccines against, they should all still work just fine. If there was a massive shift and the spike protein changed utterly (it probably wouldn't function in the same way if it did, but let's pretend it could happen), then the nice thing is the genetic vaccines can be swiftly altered to include the new sequence (they'd still need to manufacture them, so it would be a pain in the arse, but nothing like having to go back to square one). Anyway, nothing to panic about at the moment! (though the emergence of these new strains do help us understand how the virus is spreading in communities). 

 

Edit: Oh, @zahidf I see you had another question about the Oxford approval...don't think this has anything to do with it. There's a lot of data to get through for the regulators and the trials were a bit more complex than the Pfizer one, so will be some discussions on what to approve (my guess is LD:SD for <55, SD:SD for >55). But it's just the regulators doing their job, nothing more. 
 

edit again: to be more specific, these are variants, not new strains (even though I’ve called them strains above!), they’re the same basic virus with a small tweak.

So it's the same spike protein?

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2 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Assume the places not going into tier 3 coincide with a Tory MP kicking off more than the others...

Our Tory MP in Colchester is a complete c**t but in all fairness our numbers are still below 100 and have been for weeks and weeks. Gone slightly up recently but not dramatically. 

Am just worried though we're going to see loads of people coming here for a jolly up from London and South Essex, putting us in the shit.

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Just now, Ozanne said:

BBC have directly asked about Christmas!

The answer from Hancock is basically be cautious and very careful. Whitty says it’s a much greater risk but trying to find a balance between the least damaging things and people seeing loved ones.

I think you can tell Chris Whitty is holding back saying we shouldn’t relax the restrictions at Christmas.

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2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

I mean...it feels like Manchester has been in tier3 or lockdown for fucking ever.

tell me about it!!!! Seriously doubt we'll be lowered in to Tier 2 now given London has just been put in Tier 3 - can't have us up North having a taste of freedom 😞 

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8 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

tell me about it!!!! Seriously doubt we'll be lowered in to Tier 2 now given London has just been put in Tier 3 - can't have us up North having a taste of freedom 😞 

spare a thought for people in Leicester, did they ever get out of the original lockdown?!

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I'm still waiting for somebody to ask them the question of why people are still allowed to travel? Why push local areas into strict tiers but then allow people to travel and mix in areas they like including UK holidays? Its negligence. Total half arsed measures, with all the damage to businesses but not clamping down properly. I'm not feeling it today..

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