When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Wales saying they will keep the 2 meter stuff.  I didn't think that was being dropped anyway?

England and Scotland are moving to personal judgement, so you can hug family and friends from Monday (Current guidance is that even when you meet family and friends outwith your household, you should still be distancing from them)

 

Wales is still keeping social distancing even with family and friends.

[DeanoL]

31 minutes ago, zahidf said:

And people will just ignore anything like that.

 

Monday will more than likely go ahead as planned despite what fake SAGE wants. June 21st is the worry.

If the government up the fear messaging around the variant enough then it'll work. It has before. Plenty will ignore for sure but it'll have an impact. We all know June 21st is pretty "undefined" as it stands at the moment anyway. Full capacity events are clearly not confident they'll be coming back then anyway.

I think those of us on this board have a different take on things as we care about live events so much. For huge swathes of the population, Monday is "COVID is over" day. If you don't often go to gigs/theatre/nightclubs, and you don't regularly go to the pub with more than 5 other people, you have your life back. Yeah, there will be some things you do occasionally: holidays, bigger dinner parties/gatherings, theatre etc. that aren't back yet but they're occasional things - not part of your lifestyle like I imagine they are for most on here.

29 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Why not do this surge vaccination then instead of stopping the local authorities from taking proactive action. They're not going to get on top of this by vaccinating 38 and 39 year olds

Surge vaccination is difficult though - it's not just supplies of the vaccine, it's the infrastructure to deliver it. Yeah, you could push it forward a bit - maybe get 50% more vaccines in arms by running all your centres at full capacity, but it's not like you can just redirect all of the vaccine to Manchester and vaccinated at 10x the previous rate. And it's not like you can start bussing coach-loads of people to vaccine sites elsewhere safely.

[FakeEmpire]

Cheers to @crazyfool1for balancing out the bizarre downvote on an uncontroversial post of mine in this thread.

I'm not a huge contributor to the forum and am not too bothered by up/down votes but did think the negative reaction was a strange one!

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

So if that is correct, that would means its not really 60% more infectious than the Kent variant? 

Well, the top end of the confidence interval for B.1.617.2 transmissibility is about 60% higher than the Kent variant, but the bottom end of the CI is about 50% lower. It's wide at the moment as there isn't as much data as there is for the Kent variant which has been in circulation for a while, so it needs to firm up. Essentially, the estimates range from about as transmissible as the original Wuhan virus, to about 50/60% more transmissible than the Kent variant (and settles on a secondary attack rate that is more or less the same as the Kent one). So, when someone says it could be more transmissible, they are basing that on the upper limit of these estimates (if they wanted to put a more positive spin on it, the lower end of the transmissibility estimates don't make it any more infectious than the Wuhan version...that's certainly possible  and it may be that we are seeing spread in particular communities due to a founder effect as a result of seeding it in from travel and spread within those communities, or since we now see community spread, it's more likely that it's at least as transmissible as the Kent variant, so can compete with it). 

[steviewevie]

So, this Indian variant looks more infectious than the Kent one, but vaccines work just as well....so we'll likely see a rise in cases, especially amongst the unvaccinated younger population, but shouldn't see a significant rise in hospitalisations. So, then when it comes to the roadmap it is how you interpret the 4 tests before moving into next stage....if have rising cases due to this variant but no rise in severe disease, does this mean can still continue to reopen, or do you wait until more vaccinated to stop cases getting too high?

[Toilet Duck]

17 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Do you reckon  that "bit higher" is catastrophic or that it won't make much difference in the end?

I think the key thing is that all the evidence so far suggests that the vaccines are controlling spread in the vaccinated cohort and the most vulnerable are mostly vaccinated. In the lineage that's spreading most in the UK, I don't see much in the mutation profile that suggests any major issue with the vaccines we currently have (and I think the real world evidence is demonstrating that). 

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

So, this Indian variant looks more infectious than the Kent one, but vaccines work just as well....so we'll likely see a rise in cases, especially amongst the unvaccinated younger population, but shouldn't see a significant rise in hospitalisations. So, then when it comes to the roadmap it is how you interpret the 4 tests before moving into next stage....if have rising cases due to this variant but no rise in severe disease, does this mean can still continue to reopen, or do you wait until more vaccinated to stop cases getting too high?

I think there's two things that make test 4 impact on the re-opening. (1) Breakthrough infections (which don't appear to be happening at the moment, and if they do, the scale of them is important) and (2) what happens if it spreads uncontrollably in "low" risk individuals (i.e., is there still enough susceptible people to put pressure on healthcare). At the moment, neither of those things are happening and when infections spread through lower risk individuals previously (after last summer), it was the bleed through of those infection rates into higher risk individuals that led to greater hospitalisations and death. I guess it's the first big test of whether pharmacologically shielding the vulnerable works (FWIW, I think it will) and will tell us a lot about how we manage the disease in the longer term (it's a risky experiment though, one you could probably avoid by vaccinating the hell out the hotspots and restricting travel in and out of them for a short time (not lockdown, just movement in and out)). 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

I think there's two things that make test 4 impact on the re-opening. (1) Breakthrough infections (which don't appear to be happening at the moment, and if they do, the scale of them is important) and (2) what happens if it spreads uncontrollably in "low" risk individuals (i.e., is there still enough susceptible people to put pressure on healthcare). At the moment, neither of those things are happening and when infections spread through lower risk individuals previously (after last summer), it was the bleed through of those infection rates into higher risk individuals that led to greater hospitalisations and death. I guess it's the first big test of whether pharmacologically shielding the vulnerable works (FWIW, I think it will) and will tell us a lot about how we manage the disease in the longer term (it's a risky experiment though, one you could probably avoid by vaccinating the hell out the hotspots and restricting travel in and out of them for a short time (not lockdown, just movement in and out)). 

That’s a good point. But in this case, the “shield” is the vaccine, not just physically shielding them away from the infectious people like some suggested last year. 

[efcfanwirral]

15 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

If the government up the fear messaging around the variant enough then it'll work. It has before. Plenty will ignore for sure but it'll have an impact. We all know June 21st is pretty "undefined" as it stands at the moment anyway. Full capacity events are clearly not confident they'll be coming back then anyway.

I think those of us on this board have a different take on things as we care about live events so much. For huge swathes of the population, Monday is "COVID is over" day. If you don't often go to gigs/theatre/nightclubs, and you don't regularly go to the pub with more than 5 other people, you have your life back. Yeah, there will be some things you do occasionally: holidays, bigger dinner parties/gatherings, theatre etc. that aren't back yet but they're occasional things - not part of your lifestyle like I imagine they are for most on here.

Surge vaccination is difficult though - it's not just supplies of the vaccine, it's the infrastructure to deliver it. Yeah, you could push it forward a bit - maybe get 50% more vaccines in arms by running all your centres at full capacity, but it's not like you can just redirect all of the vaccine to Manchester and vaccinated at 10x the previous rate. And it's not like you can start bussing coach-loads of people to vaccine sites elsewhere safely.

Ah I think I'm getting my terminology mixed up - when I say surge vaccinating I actually mean opening up to a larger age group than 38-39, those more likely to spread it, now that risk is about the same for all ages left 

[stuie]

2 hours ago, chestwig said:

Wouldn't have thought this to the case at all. The vaccines are designed to be 'leaky' in nature. I know dozens of families where this has happened and the spread a vaccine derived version of the virus to close family members.

 

What you have to remember that for some people taking these mRNA vaccine the symptoms are just has heavy and in some case worse than if they has just come into the virus naturally.

Jesus Christ. It’s only early but you’ve just made the most nonsense post of the day. Well done.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

This is all maddening...

It does seem all the lock down gang have is some charts showing regional spikes that could be caused by pretty much anything at this point.  We just don't know.

There is always going to be a reason not to open up.  This is stating to feel more like a national confidence issue rather than scientifically proven problem..

I think we need to go ahead with Monday and be prepared to roll back when and if the science shows we have a problem.

 

I have no choice but to agree.

 

Overall case rates are suggestive that the country should be moving towards base controls only like the rule of 6 and no nightclubs. Basically exactly what’s happening. 
 

I think the government needs to look at reimposing measures only if we start to see a bleed through into hospitalisations. And I mean actually sick people being hospitalised. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

It's a contender for idiot of the month to be honest 

Deano’s post from yesterday will take some beating for that award 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I think there's two things that make test 4 impact on the re-opening. (1) Breakthrough infections (which don't appear to be happening at the moment, and if they do, the scale of them is important) and (2) what happens if it spreads uncontrollably in "low" risk individuals (i.e., is there still enough susceptible people to put pressure on healthcare). At the moment, neither of those things are happening and when infections spread through lower risk individuals previously (after last summer), it was the bleed through of those infection rates into higher risk individuals that led to greater hospitalisations and death. I guess it's the first big test of whether pharmacologically shielding the vulnerable works (FWIW, I think it will) and will tell us a lot about how we manage the disease in the longer term (it's a risky experiment though, one you could probably avoid by vaccinating the hell out the hotspots and restricting travel in and out of them for a short time (not lockdown, just movement in and out)). 

yeah, sure....some big decisions have to be made...glad I'm not making them (and glad some people on this thread aren't either).

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, stuie said:

Jesus Christ. It’s only early but you’ve just made the most nonsense post of the day. Well done.

You put that a lot more politely than I would have haha! What utter fucking bollocks... The complete lies make it almost funny though 😄 

[Fuzzy Afro]

This might be a controversial comment the other way but if the new variant DOES start to look like causing hospitalisations and deaths and risk overwhelming the NHS then I’d go back towards a full lockdown. The reason being that I think shorter periods with harsher measures and then a big reopening are preferable to crappy restrictions like the ones in place atm. Could lockdown for a month while getting more jabs ramped up into arms.

 

I’m confident this won’t happen because the Indian variant doesn’t seem to be that bad. But if it does then I wouldn’t just slow the roadmap, I’d reverse it. 

[DeanoL]

8 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Ah I think I'm getting my terminology mixed up - when I say surge vaccinating I actually mean opening up to a larger age group than 38-39, those more likely to spread it, now that risk is about the same for all ages left 

But that means essentially having a free-for-all, will that necessarily attract those most likely to spread it? I can see the argument that it might, but then surely the most nervous, so the ones staying in at the moment and less likely to spread it, would also be hitting F5 on the booking page?

And the WFH non-spreaders are likely far more able to take time out in the middle of the working day than those actually going out to work at places.

The only way I can see it working is if you target companies - so all the big town centre shops and supermarkets, work with them to vaccinate all their employees. But that's not something that could be set up simply, at least not with the red tape involved.

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

But that means essentially having a free-for-all, will that necessarily attract those most likely to spread it? I can see the argument that it might, but then surely the most nervous, so the ones staying in at the moment and less likely to spread it, would also be hitting F5 on the booking page?

And the WFH non-spreaders are likely far more able to take time out in the middle of the working day than those actually going out to work at places.

The only way I can see it working is if you target companies - so all the big town centre shops and supermarkets, work with them to vaccinate all their employees. But that's not something that could be set up simply, at least not with the red tape involved.

Another potential issue I thought of with surge vaccines if that if the people left to be vaccinated will almost entirely be getting Pfizer and Moderna then we have logistical issues than don’t exist with the Oxford vaccine that’s being phased out. 

[Toilet Duck]

12 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Another potential issue I thought of with surge vaccines if that if the people left to be vaccinated will almost entirely be getting Pfizer and Moderna then we have logistical issues than don’t exist with the Oxford vaccine that’s being phased out. 

This was an issue for us at the start as AZ was pencilled in for care homes etc and when we didn't get any doses, we had to pivot to using Pfizer in difficult sites. It just took a bit of reworking, but it was used in very hard to reach places in Ireland and has resulted in almost total coverage of the highest risk population. It's the workhorse vaccine in our mass vax hubs, so certainly possible to use in these types of centres without any major problems (not ideal for pharmacies etc, where we are pushing the J&J jab). 

Edited May 14, 2021 by Toilet Duck
typos!

[hodgey123]

This thread has descended into panic stations last few days. It is quite strange to watch from the outside looking in as it seems to be a pattern whereby something relatively innocuous gets posted threatening/suggesting a course of action, and then everyone whips themselves into an escalating frenzy in relation to a hypothetical situation which won't actually happen and has not been suggested outside of this thread! Think we all need to relax a bit, especially given the small numbers involved at this stage.

[ryan1992]

It truly is amazing the conversation going on about more restrictions and even another lockdown going on when nearly everyone who is going to die of the virus has been jabbed. Lockdown was always meant to be the last resort to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. That's not going to happen now. The fact people are discussing it over a little rise in cases, mostly among young asymptomatic people, shows the psychological fuckery that has gone on through this whole thing. Things should be fully open now. The second hand deaths that are gonna come from the economic damage and missed cancer treatments caused by lockdown are going to far top any deaths from covid now in this country. Take a step back, clear your head, and see the insanity of the whole thing. 

[zahidf]

 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

19 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

This thread has descended into panic stations last few days. It is quite strange to watch from the outside looking in as it seems to be a pattern whereby something relatively innocuous gets posted threatening/suggesting a course of action, and then everyone whips themselves into an escalating frenzy in relation to a hypothetical situation which won't actually happen and has not been suggested outside of this thread! Think we all need to relax a bit, especially given the small numbers involved at this stage.

This. I completely agree. We also have the Indian Variant, but cases are going down fast at the moment (800 per day now from somewhat 4000 a few weeks ago). What about the US and other countries still sticking for loosening restrictions. Would they do this if there have been such concerns of the variant? Most european experts are far less concerned than Mrs. Bagel or Mr. Brexit. Best thing is I get my jab next week as we are already vaccinating all the under 50 yrs persons now.

[ace56blaa]

Yeah I think the panic is due to there being echoes of the last two times we locked down, Boris saying he's not ruling anything out etc etc. I think people are rightly cautious. 

But I think the most that will happen is delaying of june restrictions being lifted and maybe local lockdown. (But even that seems unlikely)

[BobWillis2]

Trust the vaccines, we need the government to finally be “guided by the science” rather than panicking over upticks and variants. 

There are very very few people left in the UK that are at real risk from covid that haven’t had at least their first dose yet. Which is mainly those that can’t have it, or younger people that don’t know they’re at risk. 

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, FakeEmpire said:

Cheers to @crazyfool1for balancing out the bizarre downvote on an uncontroversial post of mine in this thread.

I'm not a huge contributor to the forum and am not too bothered by up/down votes but did think the negative reaction was a strange one!

No probs it’s from a usual suspect and that behaviour is out of order on unoffencive  posts