When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Bellend reply  

It's clear they aren't for shits and giggles but they don't work as people leak into the other areas regardless.

We either put in place national restrictions or we don't.

It wasn't fair the way what happened last year and it didn't work.  

Pot, Kettle.

😘

[JoeyT]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

I don't live in Blackburn or Bury but wouldn't have them lockdown so I can go to the pub.

So no... not pot kettle 

I'll be lucky if I get time to go to the pub fella and it's misguided to think that's the reasoning behind anyone who suggests this approach.

So what say you in terms of what you think should happen next?

[pryce]

We have pretty much all at risk in all age groups vaccinated and all reports are indicating the vaccine still prevents hospital admissions. I think people forget that we have vaccinated all age groups at risk ...they will see pretty soon if hospital admissions do actually go up .. absolutely no need for this level of panic yet. We expect cases to go up. I've just seen a map of where these cases are in Bolton and like with Leicester last year it's all confined to certain neighborhoods. The same would happen with the Kent variant if alot of people entered the country with it at one point. And then unluckily spread it around in certain situations. 

 

If we have broken the link between cases and hospitalisations we are still in the same situation as last week. 

[pryce]

6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 it's either something we need to stamp down on or it's not.  That question is beyond my pay grade.

If it is then some level national response is needed. Again, above my pay grade to say what.

But repeating what we know didn't work last year would be mental

Good news though is vaccine looks to be holding up and reports on the BBC that it might not be more infectious.

Just read that about the jumping to conclusions of it being more infectious as well. When you are testing everyone you will find the cases ...test everyone in an area with the highest Kent variant you will find more cases 

[stuartbert two hats]

16 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 it's either something we need to stamp down on or it's not.  That question is beyond my pay grade.

If it is then some level national response is needed. Again, above my pay grade to say what.

But repeating what we know didn't work last year would be mental

Good news though is vaccine looks to be holding up and reports on the BBC that it might not be more infectious.

Was that an article?  If so, do you have a link - I'd be interested in seeing that, as everything I've read so far is suggesting it is more infectious.

[DeanoL]

I think we might get a last minute change to Monday announced - they're not going to change anything that impacts businesses as that needs planning - so we'll probably be back to "people can meet indoors in pubs but not private houses" I'd imagine.

[zahidf]

Good thread.

[efcfanwirral]

32 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

In what way are they discriminatory?

They are used to contain the virus in a particular area not for shits and giggles?!

It likely would only work if it was enforced, as in checkpoints and no public transport in or out. Otherwise you're relying on people 

By opening Monday, we're potentially causing longer restrictions, instead of jumping on it early and being cautious. It could be that we find out in 2-3 weeks that it's definitely not THAT much more infectious and is just out competing the Kent variant a little bit, in which case great news. But we could find out we're fucked...when we're fucked and require harsher and longer national restrictions again

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think we might get a last minute change to Monday announced - they're not going to change anything that impacts businesses as that needs planning - so we'll probably be back to "people can meet indoors in pubs but not private houses" I'd imagine.

If that happens then I hope the people rightly just ignore it. 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think we might get a last minute change to Monday announced - they're not going to change anything that impacts businesses as that needs planning - so we'll probably be back to "people can meet indoors in pubs but not private houses" I'd imagine.

And people will just ignore anything like that.

 

Monday will more than likely go ahead as planned despite what fake SAGE wants. June 21st is the worry.

[zahidf]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

It likely would only work if it was enforced, as in checkpoints and no public transport in or out. Otherwise you're relying on people 

By opening Monday, we're potentially causing longer restrictions, instead of jumping on it early and being cautious. It could be that we find out in 2-3 weeks that it's definitely not THAT much more infectious and is just out competing the Kent variant a little bit, in which case great news. But we could find out we're fucked...when we're fucked and require harsher and longer national restrictions again

But if it doesn't lead to hospitalisations, who cares if cases go up?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Good thread.

Why not do this surge vaccination then instead of stopping the local authorities from taking proactive action. They're not going to get on top of this by vaccinating 38 and 39 year olds

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

But if it doesn't lead to hospitalisations, who cares if cases go up?

Because if it IS 60% more transmissible then we could be in the situation where a lot of those unlucky percentage under 40 who may need oxygen need it all at once, in specific areas at specific hospitals. No different overall  numbers in the end, just too many at once. Waiting for Bolton and Blackburn hospitals to fill up (or mot) while allowing the spread further and wider. I'm just taking about a couple of week delay when we see what happens, not locking down forever. 

[zahidf]

The two-metre physical distancing rule in Wales will not change on Monday, mainly due to the Indian variant, Drakeford has said this morning. He told BBC Radio 5 Live:

Within your own household bubble or extended household you’ll be able to make decisions about who you hug ... But we’re not yet thinking, largely because of the Indian variant, we’re not going to change the rules about people more generally. We expect the two-metre social distance to be sustained.

[zahidf]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

Because if it IS 60% more transmissible then we could be in the situation where a lot of those unlucky percentage under 40 who may need oxygen need it all at once, in specific areas at specific hospitals. No different overall  numbers in the end, just too many at once. Waiting for Bolton and Blackburn hospitals to fill up (or mot) while allowing the spread further and wider. I'm just taking about a couple of week delay when we see what happens, not locking down forever. 

Well all going ahead for Monday.

 

Zahawi, doing the rounds on the airwaves for the government this morning, has warned there could be a delay to the planned easing of restrictions on 21 June if infection rates rise significantly.

But that Monday’s easing of restrictions would still go ahead despite concerns over the variant first found in India, he told LBC:

The way we don’t have to do that is by everybody doing their bit, by taking the two tests a week, doing your PCR test in those areas, and to isolate, isolate, isolate.

We have got to break the cycle of infection, because one of those big tests was infection rates have to be suppressed, and the other big test is variants. If those cause a problem, then the tests will fail. The four tests have to be met for June 21.

 

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

I think there is a strong case now to open up the vaccinations to all age groups.

There isn't much between a 18 year old and 39 year old in terms of personal risk from the virus and might help us jeep the pace of role out as high as possible.

That's what I'm thinking- younger people spread it more because of the lives they lead (generalisation but pretty fair in a lot of cases). I think the 30s is a weird group because quite a lot of us could, and in these circumstances I think should, wait a bit. 

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Well all going ahead for Monday.

 

Zahawi, doing the rounds on the airwaves for the government this morning, has warned there could be a delay to the planned easing of restrictions on 21 June if infection rates rise significantly.

But that Monday’s easing of restrictions would still go ahead despite concerns over the variant first found in India, he told LBC:

The way we don’t have to do that is by everybody doing their bit, by taking the two tests a week, doing your PCR test in those areas, and to isolate, isolate, isolate.

We have got to break the cycle of infection, because one of those big tests was infection rates have to be suppressed, and the other big test is variants. If those cause a problem, then the tests will fail. The four tests have to be met for June 21.

 

Then we're back at the casino. June 21st is guaranteed to be delayed but how long for and what we go through is in question  

[Homer]

Singapore going back into a month lockdown. Not even allowed to drink or dine outside, takeaway only (the gyms already closed there last week).

[JoeyT]

8 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I think there is a strong case now to open up the vaccinations to all age groups.

There isn't much between a 18 year old and 39 year old in terms of personal risk from the virus and might help us keep the pace of role out as high as possible.

Do you mean all age groups nationwide or specifically in the currently affected areas?

My question would be *if* this is more transmissible to the extent some scientists are saying then there will be another Bolton situation pop up elsewhere in the country so are we supposed to in effect chase the virus (opening up vaccinations to all those 18+ in these areas) around the country?

FWIW - If i'm coming across as difficult it's not my intention, just trying to wrap my head around it all.

Edited May 14, 2021 by JoeyT

[Homer]

Reading various bits about needing to be 'vaccinated' to fly but this isn't always clarified. They mean have had both jabs right, not just the one?

[JoeyT]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Nationwide    

Local doesn't work in my opinion which is based on what happened last year 

Sorry I snapped this morning

No offence taken mate. Numb to being called a bellend from the amount of times my wife calls me one 😂

[Toilet Duck]

20 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Was that an article?  If so, do you have a link - I'd be interested in seeing that, as everything I've read so far is suggesting it is more infectious.

Here's the most recent ECDC threat assessment for the Indian variant and its lineages. Secondary attack rates and transmissibility are on page 5. Looks broadly similar to the Kent variant at the moment...

 

Edit: I should note that the top end of the confidence intervals are a bit higher than the Kent variant, so as more data accrues, those CI's will tighten. 

Edited May 14, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[zahidf]

KIng of the North speaks

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said he would not welcome local lockdowns to combat the spread of the Indian coronavirus variant. He told Sky News:

My heart sank yesterday when I heard the Prime Minister reintroduce the possibility of local lockdowns; they really didn’t work. We were under different forms of local lockdown pretty much for the whole of the second half of last year and it took a huge toll on people, obviously on our businesses and our economy.

We are in a different situation this year because, even though we are seeing spread of the Indian variant in Bolton, we are not seeing the same numbers of people going into hospital because obviously older people are more protected now. So we don’t need to have the same response that we had last year. We do believe if we move quickly on vaccination we can take away any risk of a local lockdown.”

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Here's the most recent ECDC threat assessment for the Indian variant and its lineages. Secondary attack rates and transmissibility are on page 5. Looks broadly similar to the Kent variant at the moment...

 

Edit: I should note that the top end of the confidence intervals are a bit higher than the Kent variant, so as more data accrues, those CI's will tighten. 

So if that is correct, that would means its not really 60% more infectious than the Kent variant? 

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Here's the most recent ECDC threat assessment for the Indian variant and its lineages. Secondary attack rates and transmissibility are on page 5. Looks broadly similar to the Kent variant at the moment...

 

Edit: I should note that the top end of the confidence intervals are a bit higher than the Kent variant, so as more data accrues, those CI's will tighten. 

Do you reckon  that "bit higher" is catastrophic or that it won't make much difference in the end?