When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Because the vaccines are messing with the link between cases and deaths, we can't use case numbers as a proxy for how much policy is going affect healthcare. 

So there's a longer lag, so we need to wait longer.

Yeah we need that larger gap just to make sure the measures we are taking aren’t leading to adverse reactions. Plus we need to review how other areas are going such as vaccinations. All that considered plus how much the government has put ‘no earlier than’ on their literature makes me think they won’t bring any of that forward. 

[Leyrulion]

43 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I really do think this is a possibility, despite what Whitty has said theres no way Boris will hold back if the data looks good 

I think it's unlikely to have data quick enough to bring any of the stages forward significantly. They've said 4 weeks is the time it takes to see any effect of changes in the data. 

I guess they could waive the 1 weeks notice for things that don't need notice. 

 

9 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

I completely agree and I think they should go a lot faster once the over 50’s have their protection from the first dose but I just don’t see it happening. There will be too much resistance. 

If the over 50s will be done by 15th April that's too late to impact the phase 2 opening. 

So you see the over 50s data by the time phase 3 comes round (and they should be mostly protected). 

I guess maybe some elements of phase 4 could be lumped into phase 3 if the data is very strong. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah we need that larger gap just to make sure the measures we are taking aren’t leading to adverse reactions. Plus we need to review how other areas are going such as vaccinations. All that considered plus how much the government has put ‘no earlier than’ on their literature makes me think they won’t bring any of that forward. 

the big risk early on is schools...need some time to see what happens with that...then after that the outdoor meeting and shops shouldn't have such a big effect on R.

[incident]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Because the vaccines are messing with the link between cases and deaths, we can't use case numbers as a proxy for how much policy is going affect healthcare. 

So there's a longer lag, so we need to wait longer.

That's definitely true, today, and will necessitate caution regarding the first couple milestone "decision dates"

But 2-3 months from now, we should have a much clearer picture of exactly what effect the vaccines have on the health system, and therefore how much impact unlocking will have.

I really don't expect the 5 week gap to hold on the last step, and possibly not on the one before that.

[gizmoman]

31 minutes ago, incident said:

Ask him if he's read 1984.

Because either he's not remembered it correctly, or completely misunderstood it..

Not sure what you're getting at here, it's a very long time since I read it but,

"Thematically, Nineteen Eighty-Four centres on the consequences of totalitarianism, mass surveillance, and repressive regimentation of persons and behaviours within society"

"More broadly, the novel examines the role of truth and facts within politics and the ways in which they are manipulated"

(from wikipedia)

These are precisely the worries that people now have, facts are being distorted, we are being fed blatant lies (we have no plans for vaccine passports),freedoms are being repressed, people are being conditioned to act in certain ways and we are now to be surveilled every time we go to the pub or shop by having to show a covid passport. 1984 couldn't be more relevant.

 

[BobWillis]

1 minute ago, Leyrulion said:

I think it's unlikely to have data quick enough to bring any of the stages forward significantly. They've said 4 weeks is the time it takes to see any effect of changes in the data. 

I guess they could waive the 1 weeks notice for things that don't need notice. 

 

If the over 50s will be done by 15th April that's too late to impact the phase 2 opening. 

So you see the over 50s data by the time phase 3 comes round (and they should be mostly protected). 

I guess maybe some elements of phase 4 could be lumped into phase 3 if the data is very strong. 

The more data you get for the over 80’s, 70’s, 60’s and clinically vulnerable the more you can trust that the rest of the population will get at least the same level of protection (likely higher) I f the data in those groups mentioned is as good as expected or better there should be confidence that you dont need to wait for the rest of the data you just need to wait for the dates you expect the protection to kick in based on when the last of the jabs were done. 

[steviewevie]

If one day after the roadmap announced and the papers are already going on about speeding up the unlocking...imagine what it's going to be like in April and May?!

[Zoo Music Girl]

30 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

Well you're ahead of me on that! Still not got mine. Apparently the lanyards are stuck at customs 

Ha weird! Mind came only a few days after I completed the training.

Hope your test is negative by the way 🙂

[stuartbert two hats]

15 minutes ago, august1 said:

Possibly but I think a few things from steps 3/4 might find themselves being brought in a step earlier than the current roadmap so still a 5 week gap. A little bonus just before local elections as well...

Less of a big bang of opening in the final step and slightly more gradual lifting.

That seems the only way they could accelerate things.

[Fuzzy Afro]

I reckon they might skip steps out if the data is good. Still a 5-week gap but step 2 or step 3 might get skipped over. 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Fuzzy Afro

[gizmoman]

1 hour ago, shoptildrop said:

You haven't met my parents!! 😞

Dad is going down the rabbit hole that it's all about stripping our rights and trying to control us. Asked him for a example and he was like well last March they said masks were useless but not we're not allowed in shops without them... it's like the book 1984. Some facts there but reasons for masks no so much (he won't listen)

Mam is just apprehensive and so is youngest brother, might be able to give them more info without being attacked (But I get talked over when try to answer their question or give them some info).

But ultimately it's their choice and I'm not going to bash them over their head too much trying to change their mind, as I've said my piece on what I think and it's up to them I can't force them 

As a matter of interest, how long would this have to go on before you would start to think that your dad might be right?

[Ozanne]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

the big risk early on is schools...need some time to see what happens with that...then after that the outdoor meeting and shops shouldn't have such a big effect on R.

That’s the thing, it shouldn’t do but they don’t know for sure especially in the later stages so to keep cautious makes sense as by then we’ll have more open. By the later stages we’ll have nearly everything open anyway so it won’t feel the same as being cooped up like we are now. 

[BobWillis]

Step 4 being brought forward a few weeks would be largely for show anyway. Apart from a couple of extra euro 2021 matches (which could already go ahead with large crowds alongside rapid testing anyway) it would be too late for any major events to be organised before June 21st. 

[Ozanne]

Jo Whiley: Sister's 'huge thank you' in Covid fight https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-56175627

[incident]

Just now, gizmoman said:

Not sure what you're getting at here, it's a very long time since I read it but,

"Thematically, Nineteen Eighty-Four centres on the consequences of totalitarianism, mass surveillance, and repressive regimentation of persons and behaviours within society"

"More broadly, the novel examines the role of truth and facts within politics and the ways in which they are manipulated"

(from wikipedia)

These are precisely the worries that people now have, facts are being distorted, we are being fed blatant lies (we have no plans for vaccine passports),freedoms are being repressed, people are being conditioned to act in certain ways and we are now to be surveilled every time we go to the pub or shop by having to show a covid passport. 1984 couldn't be more relevant.

Keeping this brief because otherwise I'll get boring on this subject - above all, I find that 1984 is all about information and truth (or more specifically the restriction of). Limiting, controlling, distorting, and revising the information flow (past and present) disenfranchises the populace as they no longer know what's real, and beats them into subservience so that it ultimately controls their actions and eventually thoughts. The situation today is almost the exact opposite - we've got a literal overload of information, nobody could possibly digest it all and makes it more difficult to figure out what's real. You can arguably pick out and apply aspects of it today, but overall society has gone in quite a different direction especially since the advent of the Internet.

Or to look at it somewhat flippantly - the very fact that someone is able to say "It's just like 1984" by definition means that they're wrong.

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

If one day after the roadmap announced and the papers are already going on about speeding up the unlocking...imagine what it's going to be like in April and May?!

The media have done this from the start, do you remember in the first lockdown we were about 2 weeks in and there was always at least 1 question from the media asking about the easing of that lockdown. So yeah they’ll probably keep on doing a bit of that as we go through.

[Leyrulion]

21 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

The more data you get for the over 80’s, 70’s, 60’s and clinically vulnerable the more you can trust that the rest of the population will get at least the same level of protection (likely higher) I f the data in those groups mentioned is as good as expected or better there should be confidence that you dont need to wait for the rest of the data you just need to wait for the dates you expect the protection to kick in based on when the last of the jabs were done. 

And they have shown some willingness to "take a punt/ well calculated risks (you pick) without the complete data set, like with the 2nd dose delay.

[zahidf]

I can see them accelerate a few things here and there (maybe less social distancing in May or letting museums open in April) but the broad brush stuff staying the same.

[gizmoman]

3 minutes ago, incident said:

Keeping this brief because otherwise I'll get boring on this subject - above all, I find that 1984 is all about information and truth (or more specifically the restriction of). Limiting, controlling, distorting, and revising the information flow (past and present) disenfranchises the populace as they no longer know what's real, and beats them into subservience so that it ultimately controls their actions and eventually thoughts. The situation today is almost the exact opposite - we've got a literal overload of information, nobody could possibly digest it all and makes it more difficult to figure out what's real. You can arguably pick out and apply aspects of it today, but overall society has gone in quite a different direction especially since the advent of the Internet.

Or to look at it somewhat flippantly - the very fact that someone is able to say "It's just like 1984" by definition means that they're wrong.

Ah understood, the state still control the primary message though through the main media and there is now an active censorship of alternative sources by the big tech firms so the flow of information is starting to be more controlled, the government are currently working on making the internet "safe" from disinformation, so although we were bombarded with information from all sides things are starting to move towards a more controlled situation. Fact checkers now tell us what to believe, who fact checks the fact checkers?

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, incident said:

Or to look at it somewhat flippantly - the very fact that someone is able to say "It's just like 1984" by definition means that they're wrong.

I dunno, I think you can make a case that institutional gaslighting (we've always been at war with Eastasia) are fairly Orwellian. Trump telling people that what they see and hear is not the truth and that only he can provide the facts is attempting a pretty similar approach to Big Brother, even though he has no ability to rewrite all the books that have been published.

You're quite right that the totalitarian state in 1984 had a much greater ability to remove and control information, but if you substitute information overload for information removal, the rest of the Trumpian techniques are pretty similar.

Of course, it's not as if Orwell was inventing very much in 1984, it was just a totalitarian state, doing totalitarian things. So in that sense, you can legitimately draw paralells between any attempt to be totalitarian and 1984.

But yeah, "ooh it's exactly like 1984" claims are wrong!

[hodgey123]

26 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

If one day after the roadmap announced and the papers are already going on about speeding up the unlocking...imagine what it's going to be like in April and May?!

Been a big advocate on here for quicker lifting of restrictions but agree with this, it’s hilarious and so predictable. 

[shoptildrop]

1 hour ago, incident said:

Ask him if he's read 1984.

Because either he's not remembered it correctly, or completely misunderstood it..

I bought it for his birthday last June so yeah he's read it.... 

Edited February 23, 2021 by shoptildrop

[Smeble]

10 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The idea isn’t that social distancing ends on 21 June, it’s that MANDATORY social distancing ends. I’m sure there will still be guidance to wear masks and avoid big crowds, but it’ll be voluntary which is how it should be. Let people define their own risk.

That’s great except that masks are worn to protect others, not the wearer. So it will be selfish people deciding it’s their right not to wear a mask that risks others. 

[Brazzers]

September 26th.

[Brazzers]

Or the date of the NZ Aus final, whichever comes first.