When will this shit end?

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

Up till February 1st that data comes from. Will be a very different picture now/ in a couple weeks.

[st dan]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

There's a risk of a false positive if you've recently had covid - so as far as events go, it doesn't compromise them.

Not the events themselves, but it potentially will compromise who will be able to attend won’t it, if you show a false positive? Obviously will be good to capture those that actually are positive and contagious at the time. 

[Copperface]

2 hours ago, Ozanne said:

To be fair to them all signs so far apart from article show that they going to go about this slowly. I’m slightly worried that Johnson said ‘irreversible’ but generally speaking he’s suggesting they will go slowly and go by the data. 

Johnson left a fair bit of wriggle room and didn't 100% commit to anything being 'irreversible'. 

He said he 'wanted ' easing to be irreversible but that despite being 'increasingly optimistic' about being able to start lifting some restrictions he could not guarantee that this lockdown would be the last.

Fair play to him there.....not committing to anything without seeing the situation at the time.

[zahidf]

Out of curiosity, what are peoples experiences of what people think the vaccines will acheive? Most people i know are expecting restrictions to be gone once most people have had their jabs. Is that what other people are finding from their mates/family?

 

just wondering if there will be a backlash if that expectation is,,, disappointed. 

[Paul ™]

Farce!

Covid: Father and daughter to leave quarantine hotel after 'error' 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56078511

 

[Havors]

43 minutes ago, st dan said:

So hospitals and government sites don’t yet have tests that are sensitive enough to distinguish results less than 90 days after a positive test, but we’re expecting these to be rolled out to mass events? Or will it be unluckily for you if you have had Covid within the last three months, as there is a chance you could still show a positive result and therefore not be allowed to an event - even though the rest of your life has been able to resume after 10 (as per the isolation guidelines). 

They arent testing twice within 90 days because the PCR tests would still come back positive even though you are not infectious. So false positive... it would mean we would have no NHS staff left they would all be isolating for months.... This is where PCR tests fall down... they are useless in as a public health tool, its not what they were designed for. 

This is where the Lateral flow test are perfect. If you test positive with a LF test you are more than likely still infectious or there abouts. If you combine multiple LF tests a few days apart you can be sure of the results. Alternatively PCR tests coupled with LF tests would also work.

This is how things will move going forward, experts have been screaming from the rooftops for months about this and are only just being listened to. The WHO lowering thresholds was the first step. 

[gooner1990]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Out of curiosity, what are peoples experiences of what people think the vaccines will acheive? Most people i know are expecting restrictions to be gone once most people have had their jabs. Is that what other people are finding from their mates/family?

 

just wondering if there will be a backlash if that expectation is,,, disappointed. 

Most friends I speak to seem to think the same....I think once we get the over 50s vaccinated (end of April?) we should see a lot more restrictions loosened and then perhaps something more towards pre-March 2020 by July/August.

I think most people would just be happy with a trip to the pub and to go on holiday within the UK tbh.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

Most friends I speak to seem to think the same....I think once we get the over 50s vaccinated (end of April?) we should see a lot more restrictions loosened and then perhaps something more towards pre-March 2020 by July/August.

I think most people would just be happy with a trip to the pub and to go on holiday within the UK tbh.

It will be phased lifting for sure. However, come June there really should be no restrictions (just better hygiene). Otherwise vaccinating people is pretty pointless. 

My worry is what the reaction will be come October when cases rise again... will they knee jerk or just trust the vaccine works well enough to reduce deaths and hospital admissions?  

[gooner1990]

5 minutes ago, Havors said:

It will be phased lifting for sure. However, come June there really should be no restrictions (just better hygiene). Otherwise vaccinating people is pretty pointless. 

My worry is what the reaction will be come October when cases rise again... will they knee jerk or just trust the vaccine works well enough to reduce deaths and hospital admissions?  

I think it will just be something we have to live with...people are already not complying with lockdowns etc and if deaths are at a very, very low % then life will carry on as normal.

[Mr.Tease]

36 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Would be great to know the likelihood of getting long Covid if getting a mild/asymptomatic version once vaccinated. Would hope it's really low, but in the long term hopefully we will know more about that.

Definitely much needed info-also would like to see the age variation in chances of long covid. I've always been more afraid of long covid than dying, I'd hate to be afflicted with chronic pain or fatigue. I do hope it shows signs of shifting for those that have it

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

I think it will just be something we have to live with...people are already not complying with lockdowns etc and if deaths are at a very, very low % then life will carry on as normal.

Thats what common sense tells us.... a lot of common sense has gone awol through all this though. The baby has been thrown out with the bath water on numerous occasions. 

[zahidf]

Reduction in care home covid deaths

 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Definitely much needed info-also would like to see the age variation in chances of long covid. I've always been more afraid of long covid than dying, I'd hate to be afflicted with chronic pain or fatigue. I do hope it shows signs of shifting for those that have it

Post-viral fatigue is not a new phenomenon. There is no reason to suggest post-covid is any different. 

[gooner1990]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

Thats what common sense tells us.... a lot of common sense has gone awol through all this though. The baby has been thrown out with the bath water on numerous occasions. 

True!

I personally think the reason Johnson is saying this is the last lockdown is because public faith in all the rules and regulations is starting to go out of the window and people just won't put up with it much longer.

[Chapple12345]

18 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

I think most people would just be happy with a trip to the pub and to go on holiday within the UK tbh.

I just want to be able to see my loved ones not through a screen and get to enjoy myself, something like last summer without the additional worry, perhaps to go to some socially distanced gigs or performances too, I'm also happy to holiday within the UK as there are several places I would like to explore - I don't expect everything to be as it was but I really think the vaccination programme will benefit us over the next month 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, gooner1990 said:

True!

I personally think the reason Johnson is saying this is the last lockdown is because public faith in all the rules and regulations is starting to go out of the window and people just won't put up with it much longer.

Yeah i believe the "irreversible" he talks about is because a) the country cant survive another full lockdown b) if the vaccine doesn't work nothing will (im confident it will help though)

So either way this has to be it. It has to be lived with. 

[steviewevie]

Politico podcast, interview with Neil Ferguson.

https://www.politico.eu/podcast/meet-prof-neil-ferguson-life-after-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

[Mellotr0n]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

Post-viral fatigue is not a new phenomenon. There is no reason to suggest post-covid is any different. 

Yeah, this one annoys me a little. I think because "long Covid" is a new phrase people ascribe it more importance than simply "post viral fatigue", which is what it is.

Not saying it can't be serious, but again, so can post-viral fatigue.

[gooner1990]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Yeah i believe the "irreversible" he talks about is because a) the country cant survive another full lockdown b) if the vaccine doesn't work nothing will (im confident it will help though)

So either way this has to be it. It has to be lived with. 

Agreed, the economy will collapse beyond repair if this carrys on much longer and like you say we just now have to manage it from here on I think. 

[Mr.Tease]

9 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

Yeah, this one annoys me a little. I think because "long Covid" is a new phrase people ascribe it more importance than simply "post viral fatigue", which is what it is.

Not saying it can't be serious, but again, so can post-viral fatigue.

Don't think you can honestly say long covid is simply post viral fatigue at this stage, we need further study 

[blackred]

This lateral flow tests being the key to reopening venues is a load of bollocks.

As a punter I'm not going to shoulder the risk of losing out on ticket money in case I get a positive result (which the current vaccines won't necessarily prevent) - equally as a promoter who relies on selling out to break even, I can't afford to be refunding tickets unless prevalence is incredibly low. 

It might work for the Euros or Wimbledon, but for your average event it's not a solution.

Edited February 16, 2021 by blackred

[Mellotr0n]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Don't think you can honestly say long covid is simply post viral fatigue at this stage, we need further study 

I think you misunderstand me. I'm not commenting whatsoever on severity, but I'm saying that yes, that is the dictionary definition of what it is.

Covid is a virus - the remaining symptoms afterwards are post-viral effects - doesn't mean I'm writing them off or underplaying them in any way?

I don't think you'd find a scientist who disputes this?

Edited February 16, 2021 by Mellotr0n

[stuartbert two hats]

38 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Out of curiosity, what are peoples experiences of what people think the vaccines will acheive? Most people i know are expecting restrictions to be gone once most people have had their jabs. Is that what other people are finding from their mates/family?

 

just wondering if there will be a backlash if that expectation is,,, disappointed. 

Ultimately that is what I expect, there just seems to be a wide range of expectation within what "most" or "the vulnerable" means and what "had their jabs" means. 

Is it as soon as 60% of the adult population have had one jab, or three weeks after 90% of the population have had two?  There are months in between those two extremes.  The truth is almost certainly in the middle, but I don't think anyone - including the policy makers - really know where on that continuum life is going to be "normal"*.  It will depend on how the cases and hospitalisation numbers change over time, and no amount of modelling will be accurate to give us a definitive answer.

 

* Obviously normal is another one that is wide open to interpretation!

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I have read some anecdotal reports that previous long covid sufferers have seen a material improvement in their condition after receiving a vaccine. If that holds up in data then maybe we should look at pushing long covid sufferers up the queue. 

Interesting, I hadn't seen that! 

Appreciate it's a statistically small chance of getting it, but thought I'd heard things before about getting long Covid despite mild illness, which is a bit concerning. Would be great to know vaccines have an impact on it.

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Vaccine passports seem popular.

Daily mail readers love it, possibly because "wet lefties" hate it plus anti vaxxers have been demonised so they hate them like refugees now.

From conversations with my dad I  genuinely think he'd be disappointed if it didn't happen. 

Serco institute- are they the same serco doing track and trace? Got a feeling they have some kind of additional interest in this happening...