When will this shit end?

[Pipine]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Yep I share concerns ... you should hear very soon about a date for them ... I did today for my parents both 73 ...   fingers crossed 🤞 

Hopefully, their surgery seems to be way behind, only getting one days supply every 10 days and still on the 75-80 group atm. Glad to hear your parents have their appointment.. must be a big relief 😅 

[zahidf]

 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Pipine said:

Hopefully, their surgery seems to be way behind, only getting one days supply every 10 days and still on the 75-80 group atm. Glad to hear your parents have their appointment.. must be a big relief 😅 

It will be in 20 days 🙂 

[gizmoman]

6 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

We knew people would continue to be infected within the first 21 days. Sounds like a few beyond 21 days, but they could well have been infected prior to the 21 days or so cut off. We're also talking about the most vulnerable, i.e. people with the worst immune systems, people in whom the vaccine's efficacy is going to be at it's weakest.

I don't quite understand how a doctor doesn't know all of this.

The Pfizer vaccine lowers the immune response during the first week after having the jab making it MORE likely you will catch Covid (or something else), the thing to do is self isolate for a week after the jab to be safe, people in a nursing home can't really do this so it's pretty risky for them. This doctor is simply noting the effects.

https://sci-hub.scihubtw.tw/10.1038/s41586-020-2639-4

 

[stuartbert two hats]

28 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve been to the page 3000, not much has changed and we’re still in lockdown...

Were Busted there?

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Time he gets locked up !! 

Edited February 2, 2021 by crazyfool1

[Toilet Duck]

36 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I think you're right.  I've been listening to biotech podcasts recently and there's some reason to believe that the T-cell response (which is much harder to measure) is going to be less affected that the antibodies by the changes in the spike protein.

Since the antibodies are more responsible for preventing initial infection and the T-cells are more responsible for killing infected cells, we're likely to see the headline efficacy of infection prevention increasingly drop off as the mutations accumulate, but the vaccines are still going to be pretty effective in preventing serious disease.

Of course, I defer to our resident professor in this analysis 🙂

That's how I see it (tagging Neil here too as he asked a similar question @eFestivals )...annual updates to vaccination if new variants start to become the predominant form circulating in a given year, but not back to square 1. It's important to remember that even though the vaccines have apparent reduced efficacy for some of the variants in terms of preventing symptomatic infection, severe infection/hospitalisation and death is still very well protected against by all of the different vaccines so far no matter the variant. When the virus first started spreading, we had a large susceptible population, as more people get vaccinated/infected and have "some" protection, the population that is susceptible to the worst outcomes starts to dwindle a lot (and we can see that already happening in Israel). We still don't have an entirely clear picture of what is going on in other parts of the immune system when it comes to defeating this virus (not necessarily surprising since it's only been around for about a year!). There have been papers published suggesting that cross-immunity doesn't play a role, and others suggesting it does (I think the data on it playing some role is better than the data saying it doesn't but we need more). There's papers saying the immunological memory (at least at the B cell level and possibly at the T cell level) is long lasting and others suggesting that it isn't (again, I think Shane Crotty's team has the best data on this and until I see something of that quality showing otherwise, that's the data I put most stock in, so the data on longer underlying immunity is stronger for me at the moment). The next step is to look at vaccinated individuals and see what the immune response is like compared to those that acquired their immunity naturally. But, I think rolling lockdowns ad infinitum to deal with new variants is an unlikely scenario, much more realistic to expect a flu vaccination-like approach each year (and maybe not even that after a few years, maybe once we are all either vaccinated or exposed, this becomes a mild disease from here on in like the other endemic CoVs, we really can't say yet. There's a school of thought suggesting that this will end up an early childhood disease just like the other CoVs, but I think it's too early to be making firm predictions like that). 

[dingbat2]

9 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

The Pfizer vaccine lowers the immune response during the first week after having the jab making it MORE likely you will catch Covid (or something else), the thing to do is self isolate for a week after the jab to be safe, people in a nursing home can't really do this so it's pretty risky for them. This doctor is simply noting the effects.

https://sci-hub.scihubtw.tw/10.1038/s41586-020-2639-4

 

If that's what they think then they need to make sure care homes are aware, and advise them to take even more precautions in the week after vaccinations. My 90 year old Mum is in a care home, who have been absolutely brilliant ever since this started, and have been ultra careful throughout. Mum got jabbed just over 3 weeks ago and within a week of the vaccination 4 people and 3 carers in the home contracted Covid despite them being so careful. Its hit the care home for six and everyone has been in lockdown/semi-isolation ever since and everyone is being tested regularly. There haven been any more cases in the past couple of weeks, fingers crossed, so hopefully the vaccinations have now started taking effect as they were administered over 3 weeks ago now. I suspect the home didn't know of the increased risk in the week after vaccination as they would have been so careful in the week after vaccination had they known

[BobWillis]

7 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It's important to remember that even though the vaccines have apparent reduced efficacy for some of the variants in terms of preventing symptomatic infection, severe infection/hospitalisation and death is still very well protected against by all of the different vaccines so far no matter the variant. 

This should be the headline news. It’s what everybody needs to hear. 
 

[st dan]

4 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

This should be the headline news. It’s what everybody needs to hear. 
 

Yep - and the articles about these variants seem to be mentioning everything but this crucial point. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by st dan

[stuartbert two hats]

30 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

The Pfizer vaccine lowers the immune response during the first week after having the jab making it MORE likely you will catch Covid (or something else), the thing to do is self isolate for a week after the jab to be safe, people in a nursing home can't really do this so it's pretty risky for them. This doctor is simply noting the effects.

https://sci-hub.scihubtw.tw/10.1038/s41586-020-2639-4

 

Whilst this may be an observed effect in the detailed, small study linked, it's worth bearing in mind IIRC, this wasn't present in the Pfizer data - we didn't see an increase in infections in the vaccine group vs the placebo group before the protection started kicking in at the 12 day mark.

EDIT: Not that I'm suggesting people should be less careful for the first 14 days after their first shot.

Edited February 2, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[Chapple12345]

 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

 

oh and the fact lots more people became eligible for the flu vaccine 🙂 duh 🙂 

[Toilet Duck]

15 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Whilst this may be an observed effect in the detailed, small study linked, it's worth bearing in mind IIRC, this wasn't present in the Pfizer data - we didn't see an increase in infections in the vaccine group vs the placebo group before the protection started kicking in at the 12 day mark.

To be fair, as I recall, Pfizer did note a transient lymphocyte depression in days 1-3 post-vaccination that was back at baseline by day 6, however, whether that actually translates into "immunosuppression" is another matter. As you say, there was certainly no increase in infections in vaccinated individuals in that interim period before protection kicked in (in any of the vaccine trials) and that would be the strongest signal that the observation on transient lower white blood cells actually increases risk of infection (there was no signal in the adverse effects either for an increase in infection with anything). It's certainly worth looking into, but cohort studies in settings with outbreaks are going to throw up anomalies...shouldn't be discarded and should certainly be investigated, but behaving as if you have no protection until you do is the best way to approach it. 

Edit: It could well be that in Pfizer's trial settings, the slight, early dip in white blood cells count doesn't cause a signal in terms of infections (SARS-CoV-2 or otherwise), however in a care homes with immunosuppressed individuals and high viral loads circulating it does. I'm speculating and it's not a good idea to speculate, but I think it should be investigated and if it can be managed with slight changes in practice, then its better to know that. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Toilet Duck
additional thoughts!

[Crazyfool01]

Time for double protection ... 

[Smeble]

4 hours ago, xxialac said:

In which month do people think the first 10,000+ close proximity, mass event will take place?

You mean year surely?

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

Time for double protection ... 

sometimes it is wise to double bag. 

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Smeble said:

You mean year surely?

Next January (2022) is still a month... By all means go for it with your guess!

[Smeble]

59 minutes ago, Pipine said:

Really hope so, my 73 yo clinically vulnerable parents haven’t been vaccinated yet and I just want to know they’re going to be ok once they’re fully vaccinated. 

Well they will be better than before they were vaccinated but not as good as when everyone is vaccinated.

[Smeble]

9 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Next January (2022) is still a month... By all means go for it with your guess!

Who said anything about January? 

[steviewevie]

56 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

The Pfizer vaccine lowers the immune response during the first week after having the jab making it MORE likely you will catch Covid (or something else), the thing to do is self isolate for a week after the jab to be safe, people in a nursing home can't really do this so it's pretty risky for them. This doctor is simply noting the effects.

https://sci-hub.scihubtw.tw/10.1038/s41586-020-2639-4

 

if that's true....shouldn't this be more widely broadcast?

Edited February 2, 2021 by steviewevie

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, Smeble said:

Who said anything about January? 

You're not following logic.

I wrote "In which month do people think the first 10,000+ close proximity, mass event will take place?"

January 2022 is an example of a month.

You're free to answer the question May 2022, August 2025 or whatever you like, they're all still months.

 

[steviewevie]

Poland not giving AZ vaccine to over 65s either.

[Crazyfool01]

18 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

sometimes it is wise to double bag. 

I was expecting this response from someone .... and odds on it would have been you 🙂 

[steviewevie]