When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

I respect the hell out of Chris Whitty, hes a fantastic scientist and medic and one of the few who understands the need for the government to take a balanced approach.

 

If his comments are right (and he’s rarely wrong) then we can expect another 30,000 deaths pretty much regardless of when we open up. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I respect the hell out of Chris Whitty, hes a fantastic scientist and medic and one of the few who understands the need for the government to take a balanced approach.

 

If his comments are right (and he’s rarely wrong) then we can expect another 30,000 deaths pretty much regardless of when we open up. 

I'd like to see how you calculated those numbers - the vaccine protection is way greater than that.

[hodgey123]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Nah, they'll be over the moon. Planning for and fearing the worst is not the same thing as actively wanting it to happen. 

We don't have to do it much longer. The entire adult population will be vaccinated in a matter of months. 

I still think the whole school thing is a red herring. The reaction to Gavan Williamson saying they might look at shorter holidays and longer school days when things are back to normal to allow kids to catch up demonstrates how much people really care about this missed education.

(Not that this whole thing hasn't really fucked over a whole generation of kids - but the mental damage of not seeing their friends, going on holiday, engaging with the world will be much more impactful than never learning about the formation of oxbow lakes)

Think this is a great point and has exposed that one of the main drivers behind getting kids back to school is to free up their parents to work/not home school! Agree 100% regarding the damage done to their wider social skills rather than learning about irrelevant stuff.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

I'd like to see how you calculated those numbers - the vaccine protection is way greater than that.

I didn’t calculate them, took it straight from what Whitty said.

 

I don’t think it’s out of the ordinary though. For 30,000 deaths you probably need 6,000,000 cases (0.5% IFR). Between anti vaxxers and those with Swiss cheese immune systems there will definitely be more than 6m unprotected people out there, though the virus might not circulate between them as the vast majority of people won’t be contributing to the transmission chain anymore. 

 

 

[zahidf]

 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I didn’t calculate them, took it straight from what Whitty said.

 

I don’t think it’s out of the ordinary though. For 30,000 deaths you probably need 6,000,000 cases (0.5% IFR). Between anti vaxxers and those with Swiss cheese immune systems there will definitely be more than 6m unprotected people out there, though the virus might not circulate between them as the vast majority of people won’t be contributing to the transmission chain anymore. 

 

 

That's not correct. The previous paper said 30k but that was a scenario and pessimistic based on vaccines not working out.

 

He said "Whitty says he thinks focusing on particular numbers is unhelpful"

[st dan]

But the 30,000 who may die from Covid (even when vaccinated) are surely susceptible to any winter virus aren’t they? 
Flu and Covid deaths won’t be mutually exclusive, and it is very unlikely that 30,000 would die from Covid and then another 20,000 from flu. Those vulnerable may lose their life depending on which of these they contracted first, but obviously can’t die from both. 

[Leyrulion]

10 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'd like to see how you calculated those numbers - the vaccine protection is way greater than that.

Doesn't necessarily mean 30,000 excess deaths. 

I think those numbers are actually about right on what we can reasonably expect for the future.

[Fuzzy Afro]

My face when Whitty claps back at these dangerous pseudoscientists and gets their zero covid tripe fired into the bin where it belongs

 

 

 

 

[st dan]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Considering we don't currently routinely test for flu I would imagine in the future we won't be able to tell them apart.  I can't see us testing like this forever for covid forever.

Yep I think so too. So the winter death figures will go up in future years now that Covid is thrown into the mix, but hopefully won’t have too big an impact on the excess death figures we are used to seeing. 

[Mellotr0n]

31 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

I love how politely he utterly dismantles Pretend SAGE. Truly joyous to watch. 

Edited March 9, 2021 by Mellotr0n

[zahidf]

IN THE BIN SOCIAL DISTANCING

Q: What restrictions might be needed after 21 June?

Vallance says he does not know. It depends where we are in the epidemic, he says.

But some measures might have to stay, particularly for the winter. He says hand hygiene and test and trace should be retained. And some mask wearing might be necessary.

Q: What about social distancing?

Vallance says he thinks people might retain some “innate social distancing” anyway, by choice.

Q: Will measures have to be reintroduced?

Vallance says that will depend on the course of the pandemic, and what happens with new variants. But he thinks it is unlikely a new variant will emerge that will be completely immune from vaccines.

[steviewevie]

innate social distancing

🤔

 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

I am not anti-mask but I think its going to be an incredibly hard sell to keep asking us to either distance or wear face masks once the population is vaccinated.  I don't think its fair beyond that point.  Personal responsibility and choice has to be restored.

I think Mask wearing on the tube or trains will be reasonable. Past that i agree is personal choice

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

I am not anti-mask but I think its going to be an incredibly hard sell to keep asking us to either distance or wear face masks once the population is vaccinated.  I don't think its fair beyond that point.  Personal responsibility and choice has to be restored.

why not the facemasks in some circumstances ? public transport ? shops ... I dont think that is unreasonable if it helps us manage winter NHS capacity .... 

[Guest]

I don’t think it’s that much to ask people to continue to wear face masks inside public spaces for a bit especially in the winter. If it helps the NHS for other illnesses to then it’s win win.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

If it wasn't a requirement for measles / flu / meningitis and other such diseases - I find it a hard sell for Covid.

I am not stamping my feet about this - I am simply saying I don't want this to be the norm unless its is ABSOUTLEY necessary - I find that a hard sell at the moment.

we often spend many winters teetering on a knife edge with hospital capacity .... covid might just be the thing that tips the balance towards being overwhelmed .... we also have an absolutely massive backlog of care that needs to be addressed ... and that cant be done straight away because of the training needed .... so keeping numbers in hospital low frees up care id think ? and enables a start to be made on those huge waiting lists ? 

[st dan]

Generally speaking though, don’t we need some exposure to bugs, viruses etc to build natural immunity? Especially the young, fit and healthy. Or is that just a myth?

I think those who are vulnerable should continue wearing masks, particularly in winter, to protect themselves if nothing else. Hopefully any stigma surrounding this would also now disappear, given how they’ve been part of all of our lives for the best part of a year now. 
 

[zero000]

Just now, st dan said:

Generally speaking though, don’t we need some exposure to bugs, viruses etc to build natural immunity? Especially the young, fit and healthy. Or is that just a myth?

I think those who are vulnerable should continue wearing masks, particularly in winter, to protect themselves if nothing else. Hopefully any stigma surrounding this would also now disappear, given how they’ve been part of all of our lives for the best part of a year now. 
 

I think this is a more nuanced take on things. Rather than everyone wearing masks it might be better to focus on smaller behaviour changes, like not going to work when you’re sick or wearing a mask if you’ve got a cold on public transport. 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

I don't want to shop in a mask ?  I don't enjoy it...

So yes I wear a mask now while we have a public health crisis with a largely unvaccinated population.  I am not a anti-mask idiot.

But I don't want to do it forever - beyond the point the benefits are hard to be tangible. 

I dont enjoy shopping ... a mask makes no difference to that ... it makes no difference to me if I wear one in a shop for at worst 40 mins ..... other circumstances I understand .... 

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

My face when Whitty claps back at these dangerous pseudoscientists and gets their zero covid tripe fired into the bin where it belongs

You used to slag off Whitty as a nerd when he wanted more restrictions in the autumn.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

You can make that point but its not why we agreed to wear masks in the first place - there needs to be debate around this.  I really find it unenjoyable and I really don't it to the norm.  I need a lot of convincing it makes enough of a difference going forward for it to continue.  I am very unconvinced. 

didnt we do it to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed ? if that continues to be an issue then Im happy to continue doing my bit towards helping  that ... I dont like them ... dont think anyone does ... but its just a bit of cloth ...

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Don't think I am not happy to help.  That isn't my point.

Currently it's said the make small but positive benefit.  Surely that small benefit only decreases as we vaccinate?.

I only want to do it if it has real tangible benefit like to currently does.

have you seen the reduction in the numbers of flu cases this winter ?  a tangible benefit is an NHS not being overwhelmed Id say 

[squirrelarmy]

Mask usage this winter has contributed to one of the smallest flu seasons in recent years. Same with catching a cold. Because people are being more self conscious about mask wearing and using hand sanitiser a lot of the common viruses aren’t being spread as normal. 
 

It’s beneficial for everyone and the health services so I don’t have a problem with it continuing for certain places where people are enclosed. I’ve got that used to wearing a mask now it will actually be strange to be on a bus or in a shop and not actually wear one. 

[mcshed]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

have you seen the reduction in the numbers of flu cases this winter ?  a tangible benefit is an NHS not being overwhelmed Id say 

There have been a few more measures in place this winter beyond just mask wearing. I don't really mind mask wearing and don't mind if it becomes the norm on public transport or when someone had a cold but to suggest it is behind low flu numbers this winter is silly.