When will this shit end?

[Leyrulion]

Any thoughts on why the decrease in case numbers is slowing down? 

It should be fairly consistent shouldn't it? Does the R number change as numbers get smaller?

[stuartbert two hats]

46 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

It's a bit late for this but the household metric is quite a weird one to go by isn't it? I mean we have nothing better, but 5 people from 2 households (presumably 2 adults 3 kids) would lead to a greater mixing/spread between everyone than say 4 individuals from 4 different households (i.e. most friendship arrangements)? I get the logic to restricting to as few households as possible because of the exponential increase in contacts for each household etc. but it is just weird to me. 

I'd kind of assumed that if anyone in my household gets it, we're all infected - thus the statistic about most transmission being in the home setting (incidentally not because visiting a friend for a cuppa is more dangerous than the pub).

So limiting to households rather than people makes sense to me.

[northernringo]

1 hour ago, northernringo said:

I wonder is this an indication as to what will come across the UK:

Looks like all we are getting in NI in April is outdoor gatherings of up to 10 from two households.

Looks like the above 'easing' is actually happening from March 8th over here.

We will have a 'pathway' to recovery on March 1st, probably very similar to the rest of the UK.

[zahidf]

14 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Any thoughts on why the decrease in case numbers is slowing down? 

It should be fairly consistent shouldn't it? Does the R number change as numbers get smaller?

Could be anything from reporting delay lags, to increase in Lateral flow tests, to more infections in some areas.

The death numbers and hospitalisations are still going down massively though. 

[kalifire]

Melbourne’s 5 day lockdown ended today. I think most people considered it draconian, probably for the first time since this all began. There isn’t much patience for extreme measures anymore. Vaccinations start on Monday. 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Any thoughts on why the decrease in case numbers is slowing down? 

It should be fairly consistent shouldn't it? Does the R number change as numbers get smaller?

I said this last night on the cases plateauing.

A cursory look at the gov dashboard data does indicate a plateauing of cases by specimen date. But this necessarily isn't unexpected, is it? Is this the effect of the form of lockdown we have, given more people are out and about, more kids are in school etc maybe this is getting to the natural level with these types of restrictions.

I'm not saying we should tighten the lockdown or want to get into the argument of is this lockdown lenient again, it's just a thought on why we might be see a plateau.

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, duke88 said:

Million I reckon. Could easily have done at least twice as many a day when I've had volunteer shifts. 

They could definitely have done more at the place I volunteered at yesterday. Maybe not double, but it is a small site. There was maybe an hour, 90 minutes or so out of my 5 hour shift where it felt busy. The rest varied between "where is everyone" and "steady" We also went home an hour early cos we ran out of people to jab, and that was with calling around the reserve list for carers and such to come in. And a couple of volunteers said it was a fairly busy shift compared to what they'd done before. But then I've stewarded Gate A on a Wednesday morning so probably got a different idea of busy! 

Thought I'd escaped side effects but just started. Woke up with a bad headache but a coffee sorted that out as per usual. Started feeling really achy and knackered now though, like flu achy but not as bad. I did think at first that it was just from standing around for hours yesterday, the most "work" I've done for a long time but it doesn't feel like that type of achy

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I said this last night on the cases plateauing.

A cursory look at the gov dashboard data does indicate a plateauing of cases by specimen date. But this necessarily isn't unexpected, is it? Is this the effect of the form of lockdown we have, given more people are out and about, more kids are in school etc maybe this is getting to the natural level with these types of restrictions.

I'm not saying we should tighten the lockdown or want to get into the argument of is this lockdown lenient again, it's just a thought on why we might be see a plateau.

But if R is below 1 ( which it is) then it should still be going down at a relatively even level as before. Its a bit odd, i hope there's a press conference soon and someone asks.

[st dan]

They should really stop reporting the daily cases when the schools go back, as they are only going to shoot back up - maybe even about 20k again in a few weeks, who knows. Which will probably then lead to some form of hysteria in the press.  
 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

They should really stop reporting the daily cases when the schools go back, as they are only going to shoot back up - maybe even about 20k again in a few weeks, who knows. Which will probably then lead to some form of hysteria in the press.  
 

depends if it is govt policy to get numbers down to 1000/day before unlocking.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

They should really stop reporting the daily cases when the schools go back, as they are only going to shoot back up - maybe even about 20k again in a few weeks, who knows. Which will probably then lead to some form of hysteria in the press.  
 

Well, id just have the government say they arent looking at daily cases as a reason in terms of lockingdown

[gooner1990]

There's no point in extending the 'lockdown' because most people aren't bothering to comply with it fully anymore anyway. I think if most people are truly honest with themselves, a lot of people are bending the rules to suit them.

[zahidf]

 

[st dan]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well, id just have the government say they arent looking at daily cases as a reason in terms of lockingdown

Yeah, but in that case the public really have no need to see them do we. It causes panic when cases rise etc. By all means they should keep recording it behind the scenes, but we don’t need to have sight of it. 

[Crazyfool01]

15 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

There's no point in extending the 'lockdown' because most people aren't bothering to comply with it fully anymore anyway. I think if most people are truly honest with themselves, a lot of people are bending the rules to suit them.

poll time ? its intriguing what the response would be .... ive stuck to restrictions throughout .... apart from Today where my trip out to source worthy farm cheese might not be deemed essential ...

[JoeyT]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

poll time ? its intriguing what the response would be .... ive stuck to restrictions throughout .... apart from Today where my trip out to source worthy farm cheese might not be deemed essential ...

A poll on this forum would have more trust from me than most that get post in to this thread!

[steviewevie]

38 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Melbourne’s 5 day lockdown ended today. I think most people considered it draconian, probably for the first time since this all began. There isn’t much patience for extreme measures anymore. Vaccinations start on Monday. 

5 days. Fuckin'ell.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

poll time ? its intriguing what the response would be .... ive stuck to restrictions throughout .... apart from Today where my trip out to source worthy farm cheese might not be deemed essential ...

I actually have stuck to the rules pretty closely I think...although turned a blind eye a few times to what my kid is up to.

[gooner1990]

14 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

poll time ? its intriguing what the response would be .... ive stuck to restrictions throughout .... apart from Today where my trip out to source worthy farm cheese might not be deemed essential ...

I think the intentions from most people (I'm not talking specifically about this forum) are good but its just got to a point now where after nearly a year of this, people have had enough and are sneaking out the house more than they should. 

Even my mum went out in their car with my stepdad when he went to visit his elderly aunt last week (she waited outside the care home)  because she's fed up of being inside the house all the time, they've previously been very strict about the rules.

I've left the house three times this week, the weekly shop to Tesco, my car MOT today and to buy a few midweek items from Co-op yesterday,  I'll admit I didn't need to leave the house yesterday but chose to as I'm sick of being at home all the time. However I'm starting to think what's the point in even trying to stick to the rules when most people aren't anymore.

As I've previously mentioned on here, my house faces a main road going into Oxford, even as I type this there are cars going past every other second and its most of the time all day every day...hardly anyone is truly sticking to the rules anymore.

Edited February 18, 2021 by gooner1990

[kalifire]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

5 days. Fuckin'ell.

In fairness, we had a 112 day lockdown which was much tougher than anything seen in the UK last year. We’ve served our time here. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I actually have stuck to the rules pretty closely I think...although turned a blind eye a few times to what my kid is up to.

I’ve stuck to the rules throughout too, I think more people than we probably realise are still doing so. It’s just that because those people are indoors we don’t notice it. 

[gooner1990]

Just now, Ozanne said:

I’ve stuck to the rules throughout too, I think more people than we probably realise are still doing so. It’s just that because those people are indoors we don’t notice it. 

Well putting it another way, there are a lot more people breaking them than last year!

[Guest]

Just now, gooner1990 said:

Well putting it another way, there are a lot more people breaking them than last year!

Potentially there are as fatigue sets in but I still think there’s more that are still following the rules and waiting for the restrictions to be relaxed than we realise. 

[gooner1990]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Potentially there are as fatigue sets in but I still think there’s more that are still following the rules and waiting for the restrictions to be relaxed than we realise. 

Possibly, I can only comment on what I see though. 🙂

[eFestivals]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Potentially there are as fatigue sets in but I still think there’s more that are still following the rules and waiting for the restrictions to be relaxed than we realise. 

As we can all see from the posts above, lots of people are breaking the spirit of the rules while justifying to themselves that their actions were ok.

And they might have been ok. The problem is that some of the laxness does spread the virus.