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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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As this is so contagious (as seen with the 770 cases at one university) then this thing must have been spreading like wildfire in major cities in Feb/March! Those who used the tube or packed trains/buses right before the lockdown were surely exposed and infected as it would be almost impossible to avoid with no social distancing measures/masks etc in place. 

Edited by st dan
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10 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

A definite flattening off. 

Although the ZOE app had numbers increasing today. 

Doesn't look like the "scenario" Vallance presented of 50k cases by end of October will happen.

He said it would happen by mid October, so yeah we was miles off, which begs the question why did he present that and not one of the other infinite number of possible scenarios

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2 minutes ago, st dan said:

It is so contagious (as seen with the 770 cases at one university) then this thing must have been spreading like wildfire in major cities in Feb/March! Those who used the tube or packed trains/buses right before the lockdown were surely exposed and infected as it would be almost impossible to avoid with no social distancing measures/masks etc in place. 

Most of my friends and I had it in early Feb (we all live in London), we didn't get a test due to the lack of them back then so don't know with 100% certainty, but some of them still haven't got their sense of smell back 7/8 months later

Edited by tigger123
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4 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

He said it would happen by mid October, so yeah we was miles off, which begs the question why did he present that and not one of the other infinite number of possible scenarios

Because it was a reasonable worst case scenario if we did nothing at that stage. We did put more restrictions in place so we aren’t seeing that scenario at this stage. 
I would think it was used as method of kicking us into action on a personal level as well. Therefore I’d say their intervention has helped. 

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5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Because it was a reasonable worst case scenario if we did nothing at that stage. We did put more restrictions in place so we aren’t seeing that scenario at this stage. 
I would think it was used as method of kicking us into action on a personal level as well. Therefore I’d say their intervention has helped. 

Have the measures we've put in since he made his prediction had such an impact as to stop us reaching 50,000 cases between now and mid October? I would argue not, given apparently only 3% of Covid cases are linked to hospitality which seemed to have accounted for the majority of restrictions nationwide since then. Moreover, some of these more local measures such as no household mixing didn't come in straight away after his press conference in some regions (for e.g. the North East), so because of the lag between restrictions and impact on case numbers, we wouldn't be seeing the impact of those restrictions on the case numbers yet. Despite this, case numbers still haven't increased anywhere near as much as in his scenario. So yes, I would say his scenario was massively pessimistic. Don't also forget that the end of September also saw a spike in cases due to the mass migration of students across the country to university.

 

I get that there needs to be an element of kicking us into personal action, but when the scenario presented with the goal of doing this is so wildly exaggerated, it can have the opposite effect by making people doubt what they're hearing and dismiss it as hyperbole, which clearly is not something you want if you're wanting people to change their behaviour as a result of the scenario presented.

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1 hour ago, FloorFiller said:

Not quite sure what she thought she was getting at here, but she’s sure hit the nail on the head without even realising it.

She is such a great example of someone who's too stupid to realise how stupid they are. The Dunning-Kruger effect personified.

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19 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Bolton and Bury continue to drop, Manchester jumping up again and rest of the borough slowly trending upwards.

0_Covid-19-infection-rates-in-Bolton-have-now-dropped-to-below-the-200-mark-latest-figures-revealed-t.jpg

Bolton and Bury continuing to fall nicely. I wonder if we'll see a reversal in a couple of weeks once the pubs reopening effects (if any) kick in.

Manchester will be over 300 soon at this rate.

1_oct-2-graph.jpg

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1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

@FestivalJamie you made the right choice ... hope they are all ok 

Something like this happening is exactly what would put my anxiety levels through the roof.

Very strange/interesting that most of them are asymptomatic though. I also saw HRVY is asymptomatic as well and tested positive...

I think if we are getting 7000 confirmed cases a day, the real number of cases spreading must be far far higher, as there seems to be lots of people carrying without knowing it...

I find it so awful how some have no symptoms and others get hospitalised... this virus is completely and utterly bizarre.

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See Boris still blaming public complacency on case rises.... nothing to do with your actions eh?

Be patriotic go to the pub

Get back to the office or loss your job

Eat out to help out

Go on holiday

Public transport is safe

Mogg pushing MPs back into parliament (Probably regret that one if an outbreak now happens cos of the SNP MP)

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-54392187?__twitter_impression=true

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My brother in law had a test today following symptoms of loss of smell and cough yesterday.

Delivered via amazon (apparently they have the contract now!) 

Despite more than likely having covid he was then told he had to drop his test at the post office, thus having to leave isolation to do so?!

Bonkers.

 

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4 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Something like this happening is exactly what would put my anxiety levels through the roof.

Very strange/interesting that most of them are asymptomatic though. I also saw HRVY is asymptomatic as well and tested positive...

I think if we are getting 7000 confirmed cases a day, the real number of cases spreading must be far far higher, as there seems to be lots of people carrying without knowing it...

I find it so awful how some have no symptoms and others get hospitalised... this virus is completely and utterly bizarre.

Perosnally I think it's good news in a way. If so many people have it and don't know, how many must have had it at the height and not know? If far more people have had it that were capturing via testing then it's not as deadly as feared and that is surely a good thing? 

That's not to take away the severity of the illness at all, but surely it shows its something that we can learn to live with far more easily than if it the numbers and ratios we are seeing were closer to reality than they possibly are? 

Its a shame it's impossible to have a Covid census day where we all do an antibody test.

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7 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

My brother in law had a test today following symptoms of loss of smell and cough yesterday.

Delivered via amazon (apparently they have the contract now!) 

Despite more than likely having covid he was then told he had to drop his test at the post office, thus having to leave isolation to do so?!

Bonkers.

 

When I did one you could drop it off at any post box accepting small parcels (the return kit is about the size of a paper back book).

It's fine to break isolation to post it back, just avoid people there and back. Go at a quiet time in a mask.

The alternative (which they do but not in my area) is to have someone collect it from your door. Which obviously massively increases their risk when a postbox does the same job.

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1 hour ago, august1 said:

are the students tested privately by the uni, do they count in the official figures ?

It’s a notifiable disease, so no matter where you are tested it has to be reported to the relevant public health authorities. The tests being used at the moment are only licensed for use in accredited labs, so they would have to report. Might be a bit of a lag though, could explain some of the jumps you guys have seen recently, and you guys have so many pillars I wouldn’t know which one they would be reported in. 

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1 hour ago, august1 said:

are the students tested privately by the uni, do they count in the official figures ?

Yes, yes. Lots of unis are using their resources to set up their own testing stations, they're also available to the local community through the NHS test portal and processed at pillar 2 labs so reported in figures. 

It takes the strain from other testing stations rather then have students trekking to the other side of the city and gives capacity for locals to be tested.

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