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The Weather Thread 2019

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Time for a graph.

Rainfall.PNG.091de9ccc7a1155632d4016ee84dcd62.PNG

 

Rainfall in mm, per month for the last few years. Data covers the South West rather than just Worthy Farm as that's the only data I can get my hands on at the moment. I've missed out fallow years and included 2007 (a wet one) for comparison.

In terms of this year, we're nowhere near 2016 (pink line). By this stage, huge amounts of rain has fallen in Jan, Feb and March so the water table was very high and the ground saturated, which is never recovered from. You'll recall Download was a mudfest too. Similarly 2007 was a wet start to the year though dropped off quickly as was 2014 (another muddy year).

We're tracking below 2017 and currently the driest start to the year since 2010.

If I can find some more location specific data, that will give us a better idea of how higher rainfall at the start of the year affects Glastonbury more specifically.

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The months leading up to the festival are in many ways as crucial as the week of the festival.

The fact we have had an incredibly dry winter is brilliant for the condition of the site and the level of the water table. The long-range weather is for there to not be much rain over the next couple of months so - fingers crossed - the chances of it being a 2016 are slim.

Edited by briddj

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53 minutes ago, justperfect said:

Has Nal retired and you've taken his job ?

The movement is growing

newframes-small-log.gif

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14 minutes ago, Keithy said:

Time for a graph.

Rainfall.PNG.091de9ccc7a1155632d4016ee84dcd62.PNG

 

 

 

Rainfall in mm, per month for the last few years. Data covers the South West rather than just Worthy Farm as that's the only data I can get my hands on at the moment. I've missed out fallow years and included 2007 (a wet one) for comparison.

In terms of this year, we're nowhere near 2016 (pink line). By this stage, huge amounts of rain has fallen in Jan, Feb and March so the water table was very high and the ground saturated, which is never recovered from. You'll recall Download was a mudfest too. Similarly 2007 was a wet start to the year though dropped off quickly as was 2014 (another muddy year).

We're tracking below 2017 and currently the driest start to the year since 2010.

If I can find some more location specific data, that will give us a better idea of how higher rainfall at the start of the year affects Glastonbury more specifically.

This is exactly what I've been wanting some to do to give me the tiniest hope that it won't be a 2007. Obviously, it can't do that, BUT it's good enough for me anyway :D 

I am particularly reassured by a) the level of the water table, because we won't have months worth of backed up mud and b) the absolute ridiculousness of 2007 in general, as it seems less likely to happen like that again (touch wood, obviously). I remember that nice April 2007, even a cheeky bbq in the park, and then BOOM everything went to shit, all the festivals got insanely flooded and I got soaked on what seemed like every day going to work. 

Jesus christ though, January 2014 must have been fucking awful! 

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9 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

 

Jesus christ though, January 2014 must have been fucking awful! 

Yep. That was the time that large parts of Somerset were underwater for months.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/somerset-levels-and-moors-reducing-the-risk-of-flooding/somerset-levels-and-moors-reducing-the-risk-of-flooding

Edited by Keithy

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2 hours ago, Keithy said:

Time for a graph.

Rainfall.PNG.091de9ccc7a1155632d4016ee84dcd62.PNG

 

Rainfall in mm, per month for the last few years. Data covers the South West rather than just Worthy Farm as that's the only data I can get my hands on at the moment. I've missed out fallow years and included 2007 (a wet one) for comparison.

In terms of this year, we're nowhere near 2016 (pink line). By this stage, huge amounts of rain has fallen in Jan, Feb and March so the water table was very high and the ground saturated, which is never recovered from. You'll recall Download was a mudfest too. Similarly 2007 was a wet start to the year though dropped off quickly as was 2014 (another muddy year).

We're tracking below 2017 and currently the driest start to the year since 2010.

If I can find some more location specific data, that will give us a better idea of how higher rainfall at the start of the year affects Glastonbury more specifically.

Love this mate! Taking it as gospel that the weather will be a 2010 repeat.

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We need just the right amount of rain before the festival.  We don’t want a 2005 with sun baked clay soil causing floods. 

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Trying to quote that graph but it won't let me. 

It looks like we're in track to having similar conditions to 2017! Unlike festival related news and announcements... there are weather patterns!

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I got soaked through more at my first Glasto in 2014. Made the big mistake of 'nipping' to the poreclain flushers above big ground without proper waterproofing (we were camping around Michaels mead that year, I try not to mention it, makes @Keithy a bit gobby). I got caught in the mother of all downpours. Now not saying sitting on that porcelain throne wasn't worth it but  being soaked through while waiting in a loo queue kinda sucks.  

2016 was drier. It was just hard fucking work and gluddy. But then 2014 was quite trudgy. 

Line up 3014 v 2016. 

I call a draw. 

I would like to request a 2017 again please. :D

 

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3 hours ago, MetaKate said:

Trying to quote that graph but it won't let me. 

It looks like we're in track to having similar conditions to 2017! Unlike festival related news and announcements... there are weather patterns!

Now is not the time to start getting carried away. It's not a scorching Glastonbury until my head is sunburnt and @H.M.Vis off to the medical tent.

April-May is key.....'normal' rainfall and I think the ground will be ok. That's not to say it won't be muddy or a washout but the ground should dry out quicker if we have sun. Worthy Farm is quite a clayish soil which is why it sometimes can dry out and go hard in hours....but also turn into a claggy,  sticky hell.

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6 minutes ago, Keithy said:

Now is not the time to start getting carried away. It's not a scorching Glastonbury until my head is sunburnt and @H.M.Vis off to the medical tent.

April-May is key.....'normal' rainfall and I think the ground will be ok. That's not to say it won't be muddy or a washout but the ground should dry out quicker if we have sun. Worthy Farm is quite a clayish soil which is why it sometimes can dry out and go hard in hours....but also turn into a claggy,  sticky hell.

I am a ginger and I was covered in heat bump bubbles. It was still awesome weather and still better than 2016. :P

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Anything but claggy sticky clay is a result. 2016 was awful. If someone offered a 2015 right now i'd take it, but another 2017 would be 😁

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Could you include 2018 data? We know it was fallow but if it had happened it would have been the driest and hottest Glasto on record? Wouldn’t it? 

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28 minutes ago, caballosblancos said:

Could you include 2018 data? We know it was fallow but if it had happened it would have been the driest and hottest Glasto on record? Wouldn’t it? 

It would have been an absolute scorcher, probably clipping 2010 

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Nice to see this thread in action!

I missed 2016, but have to say the mud tales don't make me regret it all too much. Constant rain is depressing but trudging through mud is just exhausting. Hoping Keithy's graph and water table theory has some weight behind it.

My first year was 2008 and I've been lucky overall. Bit of rain 2009, 2011 and 2014 (that was my muddiest) and 2008, 2013 and 2017 were all pretty good. 2010 was of course the hallowed holy grail of Glasto weather. I would happily take any of those last four again though.

The only time the weather has really got the better of me was that godawful Friday in 2011. Cold and raining all day. But even then the rest of the weekend was good.

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I’ve bought new wellies so that’s probably means I won’t need them😀

2017 was just right - not too hot, no mud and not too cold. I arrived Thursday so missed the Weds heatwave!  Have experienced the best and worst of all weathers since 95 am always prepared for the worst ( thick, gluggy, wet sloppy) and hope for the best. But do still obsessively check the weather either way! 

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2016 worst for mud.

2007 worst for repeated rain.

2005 worst for Biblical storm.

 

Something along the lines of 1995 or 2010 would be amazing but I’m expecting it to be somewhere in the middle.  2017 was lovely.  That please.

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My friend's Dad organises a mini festival near our home-town, and this year it happens to be the same year as Glastonbury (it's usually the weekend after). This week the put the 12-week ahead forecast on his fb page, which excites me for two reasons:

1). Weather looks perfecto 

2). There are other people who think that it's not too early to be thinking about such things - hooray!

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Even though ticketless @The Nal will keep me entertained with his grey-cloud outlook on the weather for the festival!

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This thread usually gives me anxiety.

I've seen 2 very different Glastonbury's: 2016 was my first and the mud was horrific however other than a couple of downfalls especially overnight on the Friday and then the sunday daytime it was relatively dry. 

2017 was glorious though, dry weather and the days leading up to the festival including the few days on site before the gates opened were a heatwave and by the Friday we were hoping for cooler temps. In reality i'd take somewhere in between but ideally i'd like a sunny but partly cloudy festival. Nice bit of sun broken up with the occasional bit of shade....  just no rain or mud please. 

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Went to North Wales yesterday, nearly didn't bother because the weather forecast the day before said rain.20190408_143159.thumb.jpg.9d8636d5d7a21c8cbe4e048497cec920.jpg

20190408_144517.thumb.jpg.34422c581184912c76082ab315bf2446.jpg

[/Nal]

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