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The Weather Thread 2019


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On 4/5/2019 at 12:53 PM, Keithy said:

Time for a graph.

Rainfall.PNG.091de9ccc7a1155632d4016ee84dcd62.PNG

 

Rainfall in mm, per month for the last few years. Data covers the South West rather than just Worthy Farm as that's the only data I can get my hands on at the moment. I've missed out fallow years and included 2007 (a wet one) for comparison.

In terms of this year, we're nowhere near 2016 (pink line). By this stage, huge amounts of rain has fallen in Jan, Feb and March so the water table was very high and the ground saturated, which is never recovered from. You'll recall Download was a mudfest too. Similarly 2007 was a wet start to the year though dropped off quickly as was 2014 (another muddy year).

We're tracking below 2017 and currently the driest start to the year since 2010.

If I can find some more location specific data, that will give us a better idea of how higher rainfall at the start of the year affects Glastonbury more specifically.

Why the bloody hell is April known for showers?

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On 4/5/2019 at 8:30 PM, tarw said:

We need just the right amount of rain before the festival.  We don’t want a 2005 with sun baked clay soil causing floods. 

The drainage genuinely is very good these days. Think the 2014 thunderstorm - there were rivers flowing through the site again, but in the designated areas.  Hard ground is fine.

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On 4/5/2019 at 12:53 PM, Keithy said:

 

Wonderful graph times

Love the graph, Keithy!

It's looking like a  promising start in regards to the water table.  if rainfall stays around average then ground conditions will be wonderful (barring a 2 week deluge prior to the festival).

 

35 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

This thread usually gives me anxiety.

I've seen 2 very different Glastonbury's: 2016 was my first and the mud was horrific however other than a couple of downfalls especially overnight on the Friday and then the sunday daytime it was relatively dry. 

2017 was glorious though, dry weather and the days leading up to the festival including the few days on site before the gates opened were a heatwave and by the Friday we were hoping for cooler temps. In reality i'd take somewhere in between but ideally i'd like a sunny but partly cloudy festival. Nice bit of sun broken up with the occasional bit of shade....  just no rain or mud please. 

If following the Goldilocks Weather Pattern Analysis, 2019 should be 'just right'.  Not too hot and not too wet.

 

 

 

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It's been pissing cats and dogs here a few nights recently and I've woken up in cold sweats imagining rivers of hellish sewer mud... until I remember I live in a different country. 

I was pretty lucky with my last three (09-11) so fingers crossed for more of the same again. I imagine stewarding in a downpour is not the most fun in the world. 

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3 minutes ago, cb4747 said:

I don't know how accurate 'Accuweather' really is but it says showers, thunderstorm and sunshine. 

Nothing is accurate this far out in fact a week or 2 is still pushing it, I obsess over the weather every year for glasto and one of the best to keep tabs of is https://twitter.com/GavinPartridge he keeps the outlook pretty simple and also does a lot of work as far out as possible to predict what we’re possibly in for

Edited by Razza_bezza
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9 minutes ago, Razza_bezza said:

Nothing is accurate this far out in fact a week or 2 is still pushing it

This.  And this is coming from someone who obsesses over the weather threads and reports in the months before the festival.

Gavin and J10 over on netweather do some great analysis of weather patterns and trends and have been quite accurate over the years but once again, it's only in the weekend before the festival where the reports have any reasonable degree of accuracy.

That said, I'll still be on here clutching to any little bit of hope that we'll have a repeat of 2017.  That was close to perfection

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I do think if you were to design the perfect weekend for G, weather-wise, it'd be 2017. (I'd allow it if you'd like to turn down the Wednesday heat a notch).

The (very) light showers at 11am/12pm Friday and Saturday kept the dust down, then disappeared.

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3 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The drainage genuinely is very good these days. Think the 2014 thunderstorm - there were rivers flowing through the site again, but in the designated areas.  Hard ground is fine.

Even with the improved drainage I don’t want the ground sun baked. The improved drainage will help prevent the floods in Penatds and other spots but if all of the rain runs straight off the ground without any soaking in it will still cause problems. 

A dryish April and May to keep the water table low. Weekly evening showers to keep the ground slightly moist in June. Wednesday 18* and overcast so pitching is easy pegs going in by hand. Clearing in the evening to give a sunny weekend with the occasional cloud for comfort. 

That would do me

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On 4/5/2019 at 12:53 PM, Keithy said:

Time for a graph.

Rainfall.PNG.091de9ccc7a1155632d4016ee84dcd62.PNG

 

Rainfall in mm, per month for the last few years. Data covers the South West rather than just Worthy Farm as that's the only data I can get my hands on at the moment. I've missed out fallow years and included 2007 (a wet one) for comparison.

In terms of this year, we're nowhere near 2016 (pink line). By this stage, huge amounts of rain has fallen in Jan, Feb and March so the water table was very high and the ground saturated, which is never recovered from. You'll recall Download was a mudfest too. Similarly 2007 was a wet start to the year though dropped off quickly as was 2014 (another muddy year).

We're tracking below 2017 and currently the driest start to the year since 2010.

If I can find some more location specific data, that will give us a better idea of how higher rainfall at the start of the year affects Glastonbury more specifically.

Great work & very interesting. Another factor we all need consider is the soil type which is predominantly coat I believe. In dry periods the clay sub-soil compacts as the water table lowers becoming very dense and hard. When this happens it is slower than other sub-soils to absorb rain. Hence the topsoil doesn't drain as easily and quickly turns to mud. This is why I always pack my wellies.

Think it was 2009 when I witnessed this effect first hand. Been really dry fest right up to about 1am Sunday night when we had heavy rain for around 45 minutes and the site quickly turned to rivers water and mud.

 

Edited by Lycra
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I was chatting to a meteorology student student as the weekend, she was in her last year, and I told her that the only weather anyone's *really* interested in is whether Glastonbury's going to be dry or not.

In the end I pinned her down to a single word answer to "will it be a dry one this year?", and she said yes. I think we can all gain some comfort from that. Last year of training and all that.

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On 4/9/2019 at 1:24 PM, crazyfool1 said:

I would say one/all of those highly likely think that covers most options apart from snow :) 

I'm pretty sure in 2014 there was all of it from a torrential thunderstorm and pissing rain to burning hot sun. Love our weather. 

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25 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

That's mental!! People were hiding from the sun under sandwichboards!!

The rest of the days were bang on though ?

For some reason I have no trouble handling such heat. The other days were a bit too chilly and windy for my taste.

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30 minutes ago, Anarion said:

For some reason I have no trouble handling such heat. The other days were a bit too chilly and windy for my taste.

Haha, fair. My friend was also complaining about it being "cold". I gave her a spare hoodie though and we were both grand. 

I would be worried about the state of my hangovers if I was subjected to that heat the whole time. And my god, imagine how much we'd all stink :lol:

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6 minutes ago, Anarion said:

For some reason I have no trouble handling such heat. The other days were a bit too chilly and windy for my taste.

I'm similar insofar I can usually handle quite high heat without issue but as soon as it gets humid, I start struggling

That said, the heat on the  wednesday in '15 and '17 was oppressive to say the least.  As glorious as it was, it wasn't the best conditions to be queuing for hours with all your camping gear on your back!

 

Not that long range forecasts are in anyway reliable at this stage, but the ones from metcheck and accuweather are painting a positive picture at the moment with temps in the low 20s and a low risk of rain.  Just as importantly, the preceding weeks/months also look to be quite dry so that is lowering the chance of ground conditions like 2016.  

I don't expect this positive outlook to remain but at least we're starting from a good place!

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4 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

I knew you'd pop up. It's like saying The Candyman too many times in a mirror

We all know that The Weather thread hasn't properly started until @The Nal has told us we're all fucked.

Great gif selection though.  I was expecting a dig giving the side eye but that was just perfection

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