The Weather Thread 2019

[jparx]

If Sunday brings the goods it’s looking like another dry forecast! Temperatures have almost reversed from a few days ago where it was HOT at the start then tailed off.  Now looking hotter as we go along.

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Saturday warming up - 25 degrees 

Friday is warmer than Saturday.

[Mr.Tease]

15 minutes ago, Ryan6876 said:

So are we sure the Nal has just made that up ?

I think it's 2016s horror forecast 

[Ryan6876]

Just now, Mr.Tease said:

I think it's 2016s horror forecast 

He’s my hero.

[tumbles]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Friday is warmer than Saturday.

I thought it was warmer than last run on sat 

[Mr.Tease]

19 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

Ha, ok, maybe he can have pulled it out of is his arse.

In which case, I guess....bravo???

The Nal is actually Jack One

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Where I live right now it’s the absolute perfect weather, 23 degrees and overcast nice and warm but not too hot. It doesn’t get any lower than 18 overnight either, absolutely perfect festival weather imo.

[briddj]

Festival still completely dry.

[Splatt]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Festival still completely dry.

?

[Euphoricape]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Festival still completely dry.

Have that! 

[tumbles]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Festival still completely dry.

I thought that was marginally better run but I don’t know much - less chance of rain on the weds morning. Temps seem to be on lower side. Wonder how they compare to other models 

[Euphoricape]

Is this weather getting near to being locked in now? With only 3 days to go surely it cant change much more..?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Euphoricape said:

Is this weather getting near to being locked in now? With only 3 days to go surely it cant change much more..?

It would be nice, but I guess the Saturday/Sunday is still a week away and look how much it’s changes in a few days.

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, tumbles said:

I thought it was warmer than last run on sat 

Ah sorry thought you meant Friday-Saturday. Saturdays are almost the same.

[TokiDoki]

The 12z GFS run gives a total accumulated rainfall between now and 6am on Wednesday as 11-13mm (and 2mm between midday today and now). Then it gives 0mm from 6am Wednesday all the way to 6am Monday.

Temperatures look around average with daytime highs between 20-25C.

[Hugh Jass]

7 minutes ago, briddj said:

Festival still completely dry.

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

No rain again is just an absolute piss take isn’t it, how have we wangled this, payment in kind for 2016?

[Gedh]

5 minutes ago, briddj said:

Ah sorry thought you meant Friday-Saturday. Saturdays are almost the same.

Is it just me that sees briddj's avatar and, in my head, hears Robbie's dulcet tones reading them out?

[MEGABOWL]

There’s no way. That’s not happening. It will rain at some point. However it looks nothing at all like 2016. That’s all I ever asked for ???

[tumbles]

8 minutes ago, briddj said:

Ah sorry thought you meant Friday-Saturday. Saturdays are almost the same.

Sunday creeping up to 20-21 degrees is better tho? 

[briddj]

So, here's the 12Z.....

Pressure: Again building to a high, but starts to sink away on Saturday. On this run the low out to the west looks more developed and could well be a worry in future runs. But the high pressure actually performs better on the Sunday on this run, with lower pressure further north. So good news overall.

Precipitation: Rain overnight, stopping around 6am leaving the whole of Monday for good drying. But the rain is back again overnight into Tuesday - pretty much the same as the last run and potentially torrential in nature. The positive again is it rains overnight and is clear by 9am (though there are morning showers in the vicinity) to leave all day for drying.

After that Tuesday morning rain it's completely dry through to gates opening, and here's how it looks just after they have.

There is no rain showing for the festival whatsoever once again.

Max temperature: Monday 21-22, Tuesday 18-19, Wednesday 21, Thursday 22, Friday 24-25, Saturday 22-23, Sunday 19-20

Summary: We still wait to find out how bad the rain will be in the early hours of Tuesday. This is going to be very important.

We still enjoy perfect festival conditions again, but that temperatures keep being downgraded a little in each run too, if you believe the GFS, so it's slightly concerned as a trend and we really don't want that to keep happening.

We do have lovely conditions - especially on Friday, and it will be warm overnight. Still need a degree or two on Sunday for me.

High pressure is better in this run on the Sunday, but we remain at risk. We continue....

Edited June 23, 2019 by briddj

[Sasperella]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

No rain again is just an absolute piss take isn’t it, how have we wangled this, payment in kind for 2016?

I am also struggling to believe that this can really be a thing...especially considering the dismal predictions from this time last week where I was genuinely thinking we had a 2007 on our hands. 

I mean, it's absolutely great and amazing, but honestly, what the fuck?

[redrog]

43 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Latest from JackOne!

 

Some of you have been very kind to send some site photos and conditions are looking good, however if the models are correct for the next 6 days, there will be a big change.

I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next few days, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts.

Enough padding by me and on for with the forecast, which will again do the forecast for each day of the forecast.

Overview
Monday and Tuesday are looking very wet with large volumes of rain and thunderstorms a given at this stage unfortunately. The site may take a drenching Monday evening, Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. 

Wednesday 26 June 
High Pressure will change to low pressure over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1012-1013mb, Unfortunately this means almost guaranteed rain.

 

Thursday 26 June

Low Pressure continues to dominate, with winds West to NW over Glastonbury, pressure again expected to be around 1012-1013mb. A weather front is still forecast to be embedded with the Low Pressure. At this stage the continuing expectation for the heaviest of the rain is to hit the festival site. Temps are expected to be around 19-20c.

 

Friday 27 June

Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for Low Pressure to be slightly further out west with winds West to North West, and for the pattern to be slightly flatter than on Thursday, with pressure around 1014-1016mb. Friday is now expected to be extremely wet according to the models, but with quite a bit of uncertainty about the cloud amount.

 

Saturday 28 June

The general pattern of Low Pressure to our South West is agreed. Pressure for the Glastonbury area between models ranges from 1010-1012mb, and some have the centre of the High quite close to the UK, others halfway to the Azores. It does seem likely to be again extremely wet and temps are likely to be low to mid 20s. Some sunny spells seem likely but some uncertainty at this stage.

 

Sunday 29 June

There seems even less agreement on Sunday's weather, the general theme of Low Pressure being nearby is agreed, beyond that no real agreement, with pressure forecast between 102l15-103l16mb and that is not even including the ensembles. Winds are likely to be from a West to South West direction and with 850Hpa temps around 10c, it not likely to be cold. So in summary looking wet, warm with temps low-mid 20s, and the chance of some sunshine.

 

Overall

The total rainfall charts are very consistent with rainfall, both runs go for around 80-90mm of rainfall in the next 9 days.

Funny guy!

[wilko8]

[kaytee...]

42 minutes ago, kalifire said:

That’s actually a pretty good effort from Nal. Gotta begrudgingly respect that. Did give me the fear though. 

Good job I checked netweather before I saw that ?