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The Weather Thread 2019


sedra

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39 minutes ago, bombfrog said:

So how does this work, is it the case that the predictions are a best guess and can randomly be a bit out in either direction, it's just luck that the last few have gone down not up, or is there a "trend behind the trend" which will keep the downgrades coming for some reason?

The weather will do what it will do. Teleconnections, Atlantic oscillations. North Atlantic oscillations. MJO cycle. El nino. Sea temp anomalies, stratospheric warming. Jet stream all contribute. GFS is fed data for each run based on those things above amongst others.  Buoys which collect real time data in the ocean. Satellites and god knows what else. A tiny change in the weather for instance on the eastern seaboard of America or greenland can change our weather dramatically. 

I wouldn't say its luck involved as there is real time data aswell as historic data that predicts likelihood of current weather patterns. However small changes in the northern hemisphere can mean weather for the UK can only be predicted to a certain degree of accuracy due to data being out of date pretty much as soon as its collected. 

At least that's my take on it.

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5 minutes ago, Wurzelcat said:

Jackone update work in progress on netweather forum.

But looks about to call bullshit on GFS low temperatures

 

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The GFS is going for much cooler temperatures than the 850HPA uppers suggest, a trend I don't really understand.

 

That's what Gav said in his video yesterday.

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51 minutes ago, Beeefy said:

Random question and probably in the wrong chat but...

 

Getting a coach for the first time this year from Cardiff leaving at 1pm. I think I saw somewhere that we will go through the yellow gate. Is it separate for people with coach ticks or do we go in with people who have driven?? 

 

I was was hoping we might not have to que as much with coach ticks

Still had to que for a while at the gate when I got the coach. You’ve also got the much longer traffic que getting to the site.

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50 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Its not a seperate queue (iirc) but you do get dropped at the top of the hill so its slightly quicker. At the time you should arrive I cant see queue's being massive anyway, although could be wrong

Cheers

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I'll happily take that forecast.....

So do we take from all of this that we paid our dues for the rain & mud gods in 2016 and all the wellie & boot sacrifices that were made by the Glasto faithful have bought us another dryish party?

 

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8 minutes ago, Penrhos said:

I'll happily take that forecast.....

So do we take from all of this that we paid our dues for the rain & mud gods in 2016 and all the wellie & boot sacrifices that were made by the Glasto faithful have bought us another dryish party?

 

Yeah, it’s either that, global warming or just random luck. Either way I’ll take it. 

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