Weather 2016

[CaledonianGonzo]

3 minutes ago, pedmills said:

That makes it in the minority.

Surely here's a difference, though, between sites where meteorologists are interpreting data from a variety of sources and automated apps that just generate forecasts based on one source of input.

I don't mean this as a criticism of your sterling work, by the way - just that I don't think every website has equal merit.

[cowmadiddy]

I'm not going if I'm going to get dirty. 

[brettredmayne]

Web cam getting very dark 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, parsonjack said:

Yup....although there is a slim chance that the site could miss the worst of it if current track continues....

It's all to play for!

[MEGABOWL]

The band of rain looks from the Radar to have a bit of a South Westerly wind behind it. Could mean that while the site gets rained on today it could dodhe the worst of it. 

 

Come up here to Glasgow fella! Come on! Veer yourself northward.

[Heartbreaker]

Rainfall radar from the Met Office shows the rain ominously making its way towards the site here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1466271000&zoom=8&lon=-3.10&lat=51.12

From my untrained eye however, it looks as if the heaviest of this band of rain has hit Ireland and the north. There is a band of heavy rain hitting the south west now, but it looks like it may be heading further south, meaning the northern edge of this will just graze the site rather than hit it full on.

[Keva]

About 20 miles away near Warminster and we've had a few little drops.. like less water to then it takes to take a 5p piece damp..

[Spindles]

2 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

Yup....although there is a slim chance that the site could miss the worst of it if current track continues....

That was the hoped for scenario, high pressure to the south pushing it all to the NW, but the BBC's forecasting is looking pretty likely for the bulk of what's to fall.  We all know what we are facing, let's see what the next couple of days do for letting the site recover.

[pedmills]

4 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Surely here's a difference, though, between sites where meteorologists are interpreting data from a variety of sources and automated apps that just generate forecasts based on one source of input.

I don't mean this as a criticism of your sterling work, by the way - just that I don't think every website has equal merit.

I agree. But as the BBC doesn't give mm of rain, I can't see how accurate their forecasts turn out or how they compare to other websites. A symbol is very vague and could be interpreted different ways. 

Of the websites that I have mm values for all three out of 2013, 2014 and 2015, Metcheck, Weather Outlook and Netweather all come out as being pretty accurate, at least in the few days preceding the festival. All three currently are predicting lots of rain.

Edited June 19, 2016 by pedmills

[bennyhana22]

This is epic!

We were nowhere near as real-time in commentary last year.

I'm at work, logging on every 20-30 minutes and each time I do it's changing. Now we're tracking the fronts so carefully as to wonder whether or not it'll hit - i.e. within a few hundred yards!

This morning I promised myself that, given I have packed accordingly, I would not look this thread. I've rarely not had it open since!

#gloriouslyobsessive

Ben

[srb]

Let it hockey it down today if it wants, still a few days to dry out then a good week ahead. We are looking good I think

[SwedgeAntilles]

7 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

The band of rain looks from the Radar to have a bit of a South Westerly wind behind it. Could mean that while the site gets rained on today it could dodhe the worst of it. 

 

Come up here to Glasgow fella! Come on! Veer yourself northward.

Exactly. We're used to it. Bring it on ya weather front basturt!

[CaledonianGonzo]

BBC has just given a big, in depth forecast for the week ahead.

Well worth seeking out on catch up.

In summary:

Rain this afternoon till lunchtime tomorrow.

Dry Tuesday.

Then on Wednesday the humid air comes up from France and brings with it storms, but they seem to be mainly towards the east of the country.  

The infamous Azores finger moves the jetstream north so the Midlands get pumped, but the area below it seems to stay ok.

Then by the weekend, summery weather, possibly localised showers.

Weather patterns all over the place, but looks like it could be way, way worse.

Edited June 19, 2016 by CaledonianGonzo

[wetflame]

This thread is a roller coaster. Last time I checked we were on track for a relatively dry festival, now people are talking about it being worse than 2007? We're three days away, we should know what's going to happen by now! i can handle mud, I just want to know it's not going to be pouring down throughout.

[parsonjack]

Just now, bennyhana22 said:

This is epic!

Watch the trailer for the new Independence Day film....totally pumped now!!!!   Come on!!!!!

[parsonjack]

[Billy Corgan's Ego]

3 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

BBC has just given a big, in depth forecast for the week ahead.

Well worth seeking out on catch up.

Good or bad?

[Keva]

3 minutes ago, wetflame said:

This thread is a roller coaster. Last time I checked we were on track for a relatively dry festival, now people are talking about it being worse than 2007? We're three days away, we should know what's going to happen by now! i can handle mud, I just want to know it's not going to be pouring down throughout.

 

No-one has mentioned worse then 2007... even Nal isn't that craz-... oh wait...

[H.M.V]

Cant see the report in Ireland as its blocked. Whats the consensus?

[big__phil]

Can one of the clever weather people like @devonhammer, @pedmills or anyone else tell us if the different websites are starting to lean towards on consensus?

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

That clip actually shows people in walking boots who seem to be managing fine.

They drowned moments later

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, Billy Corgan's Ego said:

Good or bad?

Have edited my post attempting to summarise an unusually in depth bit of weather forecasting.

[pedmills]

1 minute ago, big__phil said:

Can one of the clever weather people like @devonhammer, @pedmills or anyone else tell us if the different websites are starting to lean towards on consensus?

Not yet. At this stage in 2013, 2014 and 2015, they had basically all converged. At the moment they are ranging from almost no rain to 2007-like conditions. Ask me again this evening.

[Billy Corgan's Ego]

2 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Have edited my post attempting to summarise an unusually in depth bit of weather forecasting.

Cheers mate. 

Let's pray the metoffice are correct 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, Nobody Interesting said:

these will be most likely further east if they happen at all

Fist pump moment chez nous when lightning appeared all or the map but nowhere near the wessex area.

Fuck you, Kent!