Weather thread 2015

[GlastoSimon]

The accuweather forecast is horrendous today:

 

Bloody 'ell

[Jonny Hobbs]

The accuweather forecast is horrendous today:

 

This just makes Accuweather look like a bunch of bitter Glastophobes.. 

[Dog Burger]

Forget the Accuweather forecast, it's clearly so far out on a limb that it can't be taken seriously. However, that overall rising trend as we get closer to within reasonable forecastable distance is troubling.

[Untz]

an optimistc one:

http://www.wetteronline.de/wettertrend/shepton-mallet?start=8

 

 

If those temperatures are optimistic then I need to find that thread where they're talking about fleeces.

[A Guy Called Matt]

I don't get it - why is Accuweather so 'out there' with their predictions?

 

Do you/any of the knowledgeable weather folk here know what they use to forecast or why it'd be so drastically different from just about everyone else? I assume/assumed they had the same data as everyone else, so either they can't interpret data correctly, or they're trolling festivalgoers....

 

There are numerous computer models out there and some use just one to forecast.

 

Next week there may be high pressure in charge but there is a chance the high will slip away and we get Atlantic lows coming over.

 

I guess Accuweather is looking at the last scenario.

[big__phil]

The accuweather forecast is horrendous today:

 

So Accuweather are prediciting the END OF DAYS.

 

It's still too early for accurate forecasts. Right? RIGHT!!?!??!?

[stopwn1981]

The accuweather forecast is horrendous today:

I've realised that this graph makes a mockery of those who say 2014 was ok. Has drainage improved since 2007 as in 2014 the site seemed to be less biblically screwed??

[jeffie]

Yep but that was extraordinary, like Noah's Ark!

The rain at DL during Slipknot was pretty damn heavy though.

I was just saying that I doubt that we'll get any prolonged periods of torrential rain, by looking at the forecasts and by the fact that DL fell on a particularly bad weekend of weather.

 

 

Oh, you've done it now!

[pedmills]

The minimum is festiweather, which I suspect just put up random numbers. Last year the forecast on the tuesday was 1.4 whereas all the other sites were saying 15-20mm-ish.

If you take accuweather and festiweather out you get this. The trend hasn't changed much.

[chief_scrutter]

I've realised that this graph makes a mockery of those who say 2014 was ok. Has drainage improved since 2007 as in 2014 the site seemed to be less biblically screwed??

I imagine they do at least some work on drainage every year, but I think the big investment was 2006 fallow year.

 

i wasn't at last year's due to my (unfortunately ill-advised) wedding - but I do remember 2007 being a real tough slog. proper blitz-spirit tho, everyone making the best of it. the most amusing thing was the slurping mud affecting my acid-addled brain and me thinking everything was sort of melting.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

There are numerous computer models out there and some use just one to forecast.

 

Next week there may be high pressure in charge but there is a chance the high will slip away and we get Atlantic lows coming over.

 

I guess Accuweather is looking at the last scenario.

 

Cheers. so less realistic/short-term, and more 'worst case scenario'. I can live with that, mainly because for most of us 'a complete washout' is the worst case scenario anyway!

[JoeyT]

Next set of charts will start rolling out in the next hour or so.

 

Could all change again!

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

I've realised that this graph makes a mockery of those who say 2014 was ok. Has drainage improved since 2007 as in 2014 the site seemed to be less biblically screwed??

 

Last year was very muddy, but nothing really flooded a la 2007. Or came close to it.

[Mr.Tease]

Forget the Accuweather forecast, it's clearly so far out on a limb that it can't be taken seriously. However, that overall rising trend as we get closer to within reasonable forecastable distance is troubling.

 

Yep- similar to last year, where the trends started looking worse as it got nearer. What was especially annoying about last year was it was prefect, sunny weather for weeks before hand, then started breaking down on the Wednesday the gates opened, then picked up again and was dry from Monday onwards! Annoying!

 

So yes, at this stage you can't accurately predict the weather, but you can see the general direction/trend things are going in. Hopefully things will improve in the next few days- by the weekend it will be much harder to dismiss the forecasts we don't like!

Edited June 16, 2015 by Mr.Tease

[Glastonlocal]

Next set of charts will start rolling out in the next hour or so.

 

Could all change again!

lets bloody well hope so!

[Untz]

I've realised that this graph makes a mockery of those who say 2014 was ok. Has drainage improved since 2007 as in 2014 the site seemed to be less biblically screwed??

 

2007 was near constant drizzle with colder temperatures, the site never got a chance to dry out like it did last year.

[st dan]

Uh oh .. Somebody has clearly angered the Glastonbury Festival God ... Has anybody recently exposed their breasts for a selfie on the Glastonbury Tor which we can blame all of this on?

[blackred]

I've realised that this graph makes a mockery of those who say 2014 was ok. Has drainage improved since 2007 as in 2014 the site seemed to be less biblically screwed??

 

Too many variables to tell really. 2007 was wet in the run up (fuck that, most of the year) and wasn't as sunny as 2014 in between the rain, so I would expect conditions to be worse.

 

I'm still kind of sceptical of the totals given for 2007, did they include Sunday night/Monday morning? It seemed half the country was flooded when I got back. The local football stadium had been turned into an emergency centre for flooding victims and there was only 1 road into town that hadn't been closed. I don't think we are anywhere close to that, thankfully.

[JoeyT]

It's all a bit  at the minute

[Wooderson]

Distinctly remember 16 inch deep mud on the Pyramid field in 2007.

[Glastonlocal]

[pedmills]

The previous years rainfall figures are, as I explained before, a bit dodgy, but they are the best we have got.

I do think 2007 was worse than 2014, and that 2011 was at least as bad as 2014, but I'm not going to just invent some numbers myself.

[HotChipWillBreakYourLegs]

Remember the General Election polls!

[jeffie]

Just so long as it doesn't all go 

 

[Untz]

Remember the General Election polls!

 

We're not polling clouds asking how much rain they're thinking of dumping on the farm though.

 

Maybe this is where we're going wrong...