When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

France going to ease lockdown from 11th May...opening schools first. Maybe we'll be a few weeks after that...

Yeah I think schools being allowed back will happen same time as non essential stores being open

[Leyrulion]

32 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

France going to ease lockdown from 11th May...opening schools first. Maybe we'll be a few weeks after that...

And Sky News reporting he said Festivals opening from July. So assuming we're 2-3 weeks behind could that mean that end of July festivals might be on?

 

 

[zahidf]

Just now, Leyrulion said:

And Sky News reporting he said Festivals opening from July. So assuming we're 2-3 weeks behind could that mean that end of July festivals might be on?

 

 

That's a LOT later for restaurants than I thought.  I was hoping June for bars/restaurants (though we may go a different way)...

[zahidf]

 

[faymondo]

1 hour ago, Leyrulion said:

And Sky News reporting he said Festivals opening from July. So assuming we're 2-3 weeks behind could that mean that end of July festivals might be on?

I sadly cant see anything going ahead this year mass gatherings wise for festivals in the UK. To be honest until there is a vaccine social distancing on various levels will be in place. I have buckled myself in for a very long ride. Hope I am wrong. 

[WhoamI?]

8 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Didn’t they say it would take 2 weeks to see any benefit of lockdown though? It’s been 3 and compliance has been higher, in my simple brain I’d have thought we’d be seeing some benefit by now, given they indicated that 2 weeks. 

Please stop posting stuff I totally agree with when I am out of up votes. 

 

Okay, now I have found this - .

 

[WhoamI?]

12 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Actually, I think pointless comparing countries at moment as we still are in the middle of it...

Yes and also pointless when each country is collecting data differently.  

[steviewevie]

https://twitter.com/J_Bloodworth/status/1249794092634124293

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

15 minutes ago, WhoamI? said:

Please stop posting stuff I totally agree with when I am out of up votes. 

 

Okay, now I have found this - .

 

We are seeing a gradual decline in case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths now.

Look at Boris Johnson as an example. He took 12 days from testing positive (when his symptoms first manifest themselves) before he was admitted to intensive care. He could’ve actually got the virus up to around 7 days before the 12 days before he was admitted to intensive care, so that’s nearly three weeks in itself right there, before also allowing for the length of time in intensive care. Somebody different might then have spent a week or longer in intensive care before eventually dying. The deaths figures themselves are also sometimes a week or more behind.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[mattiloy]

3 hours ago, Ommadawn said:

PSML - it would have Corbyn in charge  - you know,  the man who wanted to ballot the membership before going to war, the man who sat on the floor of a train carriage pretenting it was full. Would Corbyn have removed people's civil liberties (debatable). Would he have injected the amount of cash trying to ensure we all have employment when all this ends (definitely not in my opinion). 

The Government has made mistakes (the lack of protective equipment available is indefensible) but to suggest Labour would have made a better job of it is laughable.

Uh oh, somebodys Da's been reading the daily mail again.

Of course Corbyn would be more likely to spend during a recession. The economics of the left/centre left usually advocates for more govt spending during a recession. The neoclassical/austrian family of economics, that most tories follow, does not. Read a book.

I agree that managing this type of crisis is difficult but there are some bad fuckups, the PPE equipment being an obvious one, and the usual professional obfuscation by the slimey tories starts to erode the good will of the public based on the 'all in it together' feeling at the start of the pandemic.

I do believe Labour would have been more upto it. Although I think sadly Jon Ashworth is as much use as a chocolate dildo, Matt Hancock is even worse. But you look at the rest of the cabinet and there is not one competent individual*. And certainly not a one I would back to have other peoples interests at the forefront of their minds. I don't think Corbyn's shadow cabinet had many great busy doers or orators you'd ride into battle for, but ultimately ministers are decision makers, not advisors, or administrators, they have those people working for them, and I'd rather trust the big decisions to people that are motivated by an honest desire to help as many ordinary people as possible and an instinct for social justice. 

 

*Possibly exempting Sunak, whose hand has been forced into some quite extraordinarily extravagent fiscal policy by tory standards to avert a total economic meltdown, but the jury is still out, I will reserve judgement until his actions afterwards. 

[Ozanne]

17 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

We are seeing a gradual decline in case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths now.

Look at Boris Johnson as an example. He took 12 days from testing positive (when his symptoms first manifest themselves) before he was admitted to intensive care. He could’ve actually got the virus up to around 7 days before the 12 days before he was admitted to intensive care, so that’s nearly three weeks in itself right there, before also allowing for the length of time in intensive care. Somebody different might then have spent a week or longer in intensive care before eventually dying. The deaths figures themselves are also sometimes a week or more behind.

I get what you are saying but my earlier question was mainly that a few weeks ago we were told it would be roughly 2 weeks before we saw any benefit from the measure we are taking, Why aren't we seeing those benefits now especially as compliance is better than expected? Then as another poster pointed out, it could be much worse than now if we hadn't taken action. 

[efcfanwirral]

2 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

And Sky News reporting he said Festivals opening from July. So assuming we're 2-3 weeks behind could that mean that end of July festivals might be on?

 

 

Seems they don't have the same issues with testing that we have,whatever that may be...willingness to spend what is required on that perhaps?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I get what you are saying but my earlier question was mainly that a few weeks ago we were told it would be roughly 2 weeks before we saw any benefit from the measure we are taking, Why aren't we seeing those benefits now especially as compliance is better than expected? Then as another poster pointed out, it could be much worse than now if we hadn't taken action. 

We are with the hospital admissions and intensive care, according to the daily briefings. That's what'll lead to deaths going down on a couple of weeks lag - I'm under the impression deaths will be last to go down. Though the media just focus on that figure 

[Crazyfool01]

Perhaps the pm should take his tie off !! 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I get what you are saying but my earlier question was mainly that a few weeks ago we were told it would be roughly 2 weeks before we saw any benefit from the measure we are taking, Why aren't we seeing those benefits now especially as compliance is better than expected? Then as another poster pointed out, it could be much worse than now if we hadn't taken action. 

It depends what you class as a benefit. After two weeks of lockdown we would only just have started to see people that were infected just before lockdown turning up at the hospital. Once lockdown was in place there would have still been a load of asymptomatic people spreading it unknowingly amongst their immediate family or people they live with.

[guypjfreak]

France adds another month to their lockdown. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/macron-france-remain-strict-lockdown-for-another-month

[WhoamI?]

42 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It depends what you class as a benefit. After two weeks of lockdown we would only just have started to see people that were infected just before lockdown turning up at the hospital. Once lockdown was in place there would have still been a load of asymptomatic people spreading it unknowingly amongst their immediate family or people they live with.

What benefit were we to expect after two weeks...we were told there would be benefit, I want to know what it was and if we have it yet?  It is irrelevant what I count as a benefit, no one asked me for my opinion in the first place.  

 

 

 

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

Seems they don't have the same issues with testing that we have,whatever that may be...willingness to spend what is required on that perhaps?

Maybe. They've said everyone that needs a test will get one by May. I've no idea if that would mean they'd be doing more it less then our 100000 a day target. 

I wonder how French festivals would approach that Mid July target. It's got to be quite soft and likely to change if cases numbers change. They're also not reopening borders so you'd likely only be allowed European acts.

Do you cancel as it's too expensive and not cost effective to make the outlay if the mid July date slips, or is the slightest chance you can operate too good an opportunity to pass up?

Edited April 13, 2020 by Leyrulion

[Leyrulion]

5 minutes ago, WhoamI? said:

What benefit were we to expect after two weeks...we were told there would be benefit, I want to know what it was and if we have it yet?  It is irrelevant what I count as a benefit, no one asked me for my opinion in the first place.  

 

 

 

Cases are no longer doubling every 3 days. The rate of growth is slowing from an exponential rate. 

It can take up to 2 weeks to show symptoms of the virus from Infection, then a week to be hospitalised. So any social distancing interventions have a 2-3 weeks lag. 

[The_Wiseman]

https://consequenceofsound.net/2020/04/health-expert-concerts-wont-return-fall-2021/

[Avalon_Fields]

6 hours ago, The_Wiseman said:

https://consequenceofsound.net/2020/04/health-expert-concerts-wont-return-fall-2021/

Not what we want to hear for sure. It goes against what most tours are doing, postponing months or a year but not beyond. That may be just guesswork on their behalf but you’d think they would have sought professional advice before rescheduling. Wouldn’t the insurance companies refuse to underwrite them if it was such a likely outcome? 
 

it’s too early to speculate, I doubt anyone really knows. Still perfectly possible the virus mutates into a less threatening form or dies off this summer anyway before a vaccine is produced. 

[steviewevie]

Is everyone just putting the dip in number of deaths in UK down to UK reporting? Why lower numbers over the weekend?

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Is everyone just putting the dip in number of deaths in UK down to UK reporting? Why lower numbers over the weekend?

Yup, it's not just UK reporting, all countries have lower deaths on the weekend due to the weekend.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Is everyone just putting the dip in number of deaths in UK down to UK reporting? Why lower numbers over the weekend?

The numbers are all over the shop regardless, some of the deaths contributing to the figures now, go back to March. Day to day figures are pretty meaningless, the broader trend is that they are going down, in line with a reduction of hospital admissions and case numbers.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 hours ago, The_Wiseman said:

https://consequenceofsound.net/2020/04/health-expert-concerts-wont-return-fall-2021/

I think this is overly pessimistic, simply because in 18 months time I can’t imagine a situation where we haven’t reached 60% of the population being infected. Even if we’re at something like 40% it will be so much more manageable. That’s not even allowing for a vaccine and/or treatments. Bear in mind we’re probably already as much as 15% infected based on the recent German studies.