When will this shit end?

[ShakeyCrash]

Wales data - pretty compelling evidence that lockdowns work I would say.  Red line indicates lock down.

[Ryan1984]

There was a huge queue at my local vaccine hub today. First time I’d seen that many people there - second dose bounce?

[Havors]

1 minute ago, ShakeyCrash said:

Wales data - pretty compelling evidence that lockdowns work I would say.  Red line indicates lock down.

As much as that is evidence of them working the following is evidence of them not. Maybe just maybe its not as simple as just correlation on graphs??

[Paul ™]

*double post*

Edited April 10, 2021 by Paul ™

[Paul ™]

8 minutes ago, stuie said:

I’m hopeful of Noisily going ahead on 8th July.

No chance, unless they will run it with restrictions.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

As much as that is evidence of them working the following is evidence of them not. Maybe just maybe its not as simple as just correlation on graphs??

That shows evidence of them working as excess deaths fall a few weeks after lockdowns have been initiated, at the end of April 2020, start of December 2020 and in February 2021. 

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Havors said:

Well maybe not you sorry, but you did reply implying I believe lockdowns dont work did you not? 

Also I was initially talking about excess deaths. There is evidence to show lockdowns may not work like we think.. Sweden and states in the US are some evidence and other stuff like this...  https://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/~swood34/   theres lots if anyone bothered to read. Im not saying they dont work, im just saying we cant definitely say they do or to what extent yet. 

 

 

 

Ah. Sweden again. I guess you could compare to Norway, Denmark and Finland. Also - they did have restrictions.

Most US states have had lockdowns.

I guess Brazil hasn't had a lockdown, so there's a good example.

[stuie]

3 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

No chance, unless they will run it with restrictions.

Well I hope you are wrong fella. It’s only a 5K event and the organisers still seem confident. 

[Paul ™]

3 minutes ago, stuie said:

Well I hope you are wrong fella. It’s only a 5K event and the organisers still seem confident. 

I hope am wrong too, but with the current Phase 1 event trials starting from next week, they don't include any outdoor festival/concert scenarios and are focused mainly on internal or sterile stadium events over April/May with results hopefully in by end of May.

Phase 2 of the Events Research Programme will then look at opening up capacity of those previous trials with different criteria (such as different testing/various restrictions) which hopefully will include outdoor mass gathering tests.
Those are to continue into late June, early July, with results of those forecasted to be in for late July. 

Then it may even go to a 3rd Phase, but nothing been said of that as yet.




 

[Havors]

15 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That shows evidence of them working as excess deaths fall a few weeks after lockdowns have been initiated, at the end of April 2020, start of December 2020 and in February 2021. 

Im not sure if you are purposefully being disingenuous or not.... Sweden had no lockdown. 

[Havors]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Ah. Sweden again. I guess you could compare to Norway, Denmark and Finland. Also - they did have restrictions.

Most US states have had lockdowns.

I guess Brazil hasn't had a lockdown, so there's a good example.

Exactly. Just looking at correlations on charts does not give you the whole story. 

And are you just ignoring the professor from Edinburgh uni? Like I said keep an open mind, we dont know for sure at present. 

Edited April 10, 2021 by Havors

[not worthy]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Im not sure if you are purposefully being disingenuous or not.... Sweden had no lockdown. 

Interesting stuff this lockdown debate.

It seems to me that we know the virus is transmitted by contact. So regardless of lockdown or not, anything that reduces contact will reduce infection. So, could one not argue that we would need to plot a national common sense indicator alongside any lockdown stats to try to make sense of it. Maybe some countries don't need to be told to lockdown to reduce contact and take precautions.

In which case - good luck to us all trying to interpret constants from data available

[Guest]

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-lockdowns-do-help-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19#The-virus-thrives-on-proximity
 

This piece gives a good write up on it. Basically saying whilst lockdowns aren’t 100% effective they do work in slowing down a virus and buy scientists times. 

[JB15]

3 hours ago, Havors said:

The excess deaths is the true indicator of how bad (or not) the pandemic has been. The other guy does have a point about sensationalising the total covid deaths. It can be misleading. 

I don't know about you but 20-30k more deaths over a year than normal doesn't scream out plague to me. 

There’s been a lot more than 20-30k excess deaths in the last 12 months, that’s my point. 

[efcfanwirral]

14 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

I hope am wrong too, but with the current Phase 1 event trials starting from next week, they don't include any outdoor festival/concert scenarios and are focused mainly on internal or sterile stadium events over April/May with results hopefully in by end of May.

Phase 2 of the Events Research Programme will then look at opening up capacity of those previous trials with different criteria (such as different testing/various restrictions) which hopefully will include outdoor mass gathering tests.
Those are to continue into late June, early July, with results of those forecasted to be in for late July. 

Then it may even go to a 3rd Phase, but nothing been said of that as yet.




 

It's almost like the scientists don't want them to happen but the government don't want to be the ones to say they can't, so they know if they wait another month or so to address it they'll all cancel because of the uncertainty 

Edited April 10, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Havors]

1 minute ago, not worthy said:

Interesting stuff this lockdown debate.

It seems to me that we know the virus is transmitted by contact. So regardless of lockdown or not, anything that reduces contact will reduce infection. So, could one not argue that we would need to plot a national common sense indicator alongside any lockdown stats to try to make sense of it. Maybe some countries don't need to be told to lockdown to reduce contact and take precautions.

In which case - good luck to us all trying to interpret constants from data available

I agree. I think they definitely have some effect, I just think we dont know how much and whether the benefit outweighs the cost. 

[Havors]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-lockdowns-do-help-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19#The-virus-thrives-on-proximity
 

This piece gives a good write up on it. Basically saying whilst lockdowns aren’t 100% effective they do work in slowing down a virus and buy scientists times. 

I agree they definitely have an effect. If people didnt strawman me we would not still be talking about this 🙂 

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, Havors said:

Im not sure if you are purposefully being disingenuous or not.... Sweden had no lockdown. 

They did have restrictions, but not a full lockdown where businesses had to shut, and relied on the public to voluntarily do the social distancing thing. It didn't need to be enforced, I guess there is a lot of trust between the public and govt in Sweden....but in the end Sweden has done a lot worse than it's neighbours.

[Havors]

4 minutes ago, JB15 said:

There’s been a lot more than 20-30k excess deaths in the last 12 months, that’s my point. 

Has there?? I cant say I checked, you may well be right... i took the original post on face value

[stuie]

15 minutes ago, Havors said:

Im not sure if you are purposefully being disingenuous or not.... Sweden had no lockdown. 

Sweden hasn’t had a lockdown in name but it’s had many of the same restrictions which we have associated with our lockdowns - work from home where possible, no gatherings of more than 8 people, secondary schools closed, care homes closed to visitors, restrictions of internal and international travel etc. 

Edited April 10, 2021 by stuie

[sjseabass]

19 minutes ago, Havors said:

Has there?? I cant say I checked, you may well be right... i took the original post on face value

It was around 100,000 excess deaths for the 12 months to February 2021.

[steviewevie]

 

[Havors]

12 minutes ago, stuie said:

Sweden hasn’t had a lockdown in name but it’s had many of the same restrictions which we have associated with our lockdowns - work from home where possible, no gatherings of more than 8 people, secondary schools closed, care homes closed to visitors, restrictions of internal and international travel etc. 

Yeah, maybe the age of their population as well. 

[Leyrulion]

If you want definitive proof about the effectiveness of not of NPI's then you're going to have to wait several months/years for the peer reviewed comparative studies to be published. 

To properly understand it you'd need to weight the different variables to get a true picture.

[Radiochicken]

1 hour ago, Havors said:

The point is there is evidence for and against. I have not once said they dont work... which is what you are implying im saying

Implying bugger all mate, just asking you a question to try and understand more. Shouldn’t have bothered.