When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

I'd noticed the rapid drop in Manchester had started to slow in the last few days.  

[parsonjack]

 

16 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Question  regarding cases - will the lateral flow tests on uni students effect the stats for the next few days? Some of them will be asymptomatic and won't know they had it so might it lead to a small rise in cases? 

Possibly....but I'd expect that to be somewhat offset by additional test numbers so overall % Positivity is a more relevant signpost to watch.

For interest the % Positivity graph looks like this up to and including today....and I'm not that comfortable with the rises over past few days to be honest....

 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by parsonjack

[Copperface]

5 hours ago, incident said:

Yep.

This 1 million a week figure needs to be squashed, fast.

They do more than that for the Flu vaccine, and that's without getting the army, medical students, retired doctors/nurses, and others involved.

So, time for some beer mat maths -

There's at least 3 different routes to vaccination being set up.

- Vaccine Hubs - as are being set up in major cities to handle the Pfizer vaccine - the larger ones are expected to be able to handle tens of thousands a week. We're hosting one at work and while I don't have expected numbers (and the size of the space seems smaller than I'd expect), we've been told "Once open to patients it will be in operation seven days a week until Spring 2021." and that there'll be traffic management put in place, so it does sound like they're expecting to get through a lot of people quickly.

- NHS Trusts - to be honest I've not seen much said on the capacity of these but it should be substantial.

- PCNs - Every PCN (local GP network) has been asked to set up a vaccination centre capable of handling a minimum of 975 vaccinations a week. Larger PCNs have been asked to look at multiple centres. I think (but haven't seen confirmed yet), that these centres are going to be exclusively used for the Oxford vaccine. With approximately 1,300 PCNs in England alone, that's over 1.25 million a week before you start counting the Scotch and the Welsh - and that's assuming everywhere only meets their minimum requirement - it's likely to be much, much higher.

 

Basically - unless something goes seriously wrong there's enough overcapacity built into the above that any constraint should be on vaccine supply not on capacity to inject it.

I'm not that mathematically able but based on your figure there of 1.25 million per week,  and the first phase group numbering approx 25 million needing two doses, it's going to take 40 weeks to get through just the primary phase.

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'd noticed the rapid drop in Manchester had started to slow in the last few days.  

Drove into the office today, the roads were really feckin busy.

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Drove into the office today, the roads were really feckin busy.

My bus is back to being erratic. 
 

Also feels like winter is definitely on its way. 

[balthazarstarbuck]

29 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yep for sure it seems like the recent outbreaks in Kent are spilling over into East London. I think there’s a decent chance the “one city” approach to London will end at the next review with Eastern boroughs moving into tier 3 and centre/West boroughs staying at level 2. 

Sadiq has been against it up to now, owing to difficulty of enforcement, though the rates in the East are worrying. Were different boroughs of GM at different levels?

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

Were different boroughs of GM at different levels?

Yes, they were...but mostly all were heading in the same direction.

[steviewevie]

Someone really clever came up with this genius idea...

 

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Drove into the office today, the roads were really feckin busy.

Although I think it's primarily for mathematical reasons (see above reference to how exponential decay works) rather than the effect of loosening the lockdown.

[steviewevie]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Although I think it's primarily for mathematical reasons (see above reference to how exponential decay works) rather than the effect of loosening the lockdown.

oh...errr...you lost me there....

[zahidf]

Rich people win!

 

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

oh...errr...you lost me there....

When you have exponential growth, the rate of increase accelerates.  When the cases drop off, we'd expect the rate of increase decrease to decelerate .

Edited December 3, 2020 by stuartbert two hats
Mixed up decrease and increase!

[parsonjack]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

.When the cases drop off, we'd expect the rate of increase to decelerate .

Do you mean the rate of decrease decelerates? 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, parsonjack said:

Do you mean the rate of decrease decelerates? 

Yes.  Yes I do. 😬

Sorry, that hardly helped make things less confusing

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Yes.  Yes I do. 😬

Sorry, that hardly helped make things less confusing

ok, I understand a bit more now....so we can argue it's just part of the exponential curve thing...or it's people mixing more due to vaccine news etc. ?

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ok, I understand a bit more now....so we can argue it's just part of the exponential curve thing...or it's people mixing more due to vaccine news etc. ?

At this stage, I'd go for the former.  Non-essential retail has just reopened near Christmas, I'm not surprised the roads are busy.  

EDIT: But they've only just reopened.  We wouldn't see that effect yet.

Edited December 3, 2020 by stuartbert two hats

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

At this stage, I'd go for the former.  Non-essential retail has just reopened near Christmas, I'm not surprised the roads are busy.  

EDIT: But they've only just reopened.  We wouldn't see that effect yet.

yeah, true...but a lot of this is fear and confidence, right? If people see numbers coming down, lockdowns coming to an end, vaccines on the way...maybe more likely to break rules on household visits etc...?

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, true...but a lot of this is fear and confidence, right? If people see numbers coming down, lockdowns coming to an end, vaccines on the way...maybe more likely to break rules on household visits etc...?

anyway, we just don't know...I'm sure you're right with your exponential decay thing...

[Crazyfool01]

It’s here  https://apple.news/AWs4AI8IsSl--pFGmXwSZ4Q

[efcfanwirral]

36 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Someone really clever came up with this genius idea...

 

The EU are brilliant - the UK sets red lines and focuses on a ridiculous issue to try to make the EU force a no deal, and they come up with a solution anyway. If no deal happens, it will be 100% our fault, as it should be

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

The EU are brilliant - the UK sets red lines and focuses on a ridiculous issue to try to make the EU force a no deal, and they come up with a solution anyway. If no deal happens, it will be 100% our fault, as it should be

I still have a slight feeling we’ll have no deal, could go either way though. All these updates aren’t really updates, they’re the same thing we’ve hearing for 4 years. 

[HalfAnIdiot]

7 hours ago, zahidf said:

• He implied that the government was still considering the case for supplying people with vaccination certificates, which could then make it easier for people to access services or venues. Asked if this would happen, he replied:

I don’t think thinking is fully complete, or has evolved, to a point where I can give you any firm information.

But he said the NHS would have a clear digital record of who had been vaccinated.

There are definite plans to make sure that we absolutely know, and it is linked to health digital records, who has had the vaccine, who has one dose, two doses if two doses are required, which vaccine they’ve had, and when they’ve had it.

 

Today the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has published a report saying, among other things, that the government should “urgently approve a digital platform for a health passport that can draw on vaccine and testing data to enable individuals to live freely and safely alongside Covid-19”.

Always liked this ID cards did our Tony. No way!

[stuartbert two hats]

23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

anyway, we just don't know...I'm sure you're right with your exponential decay thing...

I expect there will be a behavioural aspect too.