When will this shit end?

[Copperface]

 

So they're working on that if this variant has a 40-50% transmission advantage, modelling of the roadmap in England show that progressing with both steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks) and could lead to a much larger peak. If that's the official advice what other options do they take?

 

[MrBarry465]

 

Just now, El Matador said:

True that the majority (although not all) businesses are open. However being open and being profitable are not the same thing. 

Normally pubs would be absolutely rammed at this time of year - summer with a major football tournament on. Money made during this time would then keep them afloat during the quieter periods.

Instead capacity is severely limited and they have to pay extra staff to provide table service. 

Being open is not the same as being sustainable. 

Personally I think hospitality and similar sectors are in for a long road back regardless of whether they can open at full capacity.

The pandemic has changed peoples behaviours and will take a good 12 months, or longer, to revert back.

[Havors]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Tue is only inflated because of bank holidays … case numbers are usually quite accurate daily 

Ah right ok, am I thinking of deaths? Its those that have a delay in registration on weekends isnt it? 

Either way the 6k is optimistic? its not gone as high as 3rd June. 

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

 

Personally I think hospitality and similar sectors are in for a long road back regardless of whether they can open at full capacity.

The pandemic has changed peoples behaviours and will take a good 12 months, or longer, to revert back.

It was Johnson that said 'Fuck business' wasn't it?

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Havors said:

Ah right ok, am I thinking of deaths? Its those that have a delay in registration on weekends isnt it? 

Either way the 6k is optimistic? its not gone as high as 3rd June. 

I thought there was some kind of plateaux a few days back too … 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

What are the skybet odds?

 

“A relaxation” to me doesn’t necessarily mean that the full on freedom day will go ahead.

 

I think you could well be looking at the rule of 6 being relaxed (if not removed entirely) but still WFH, 1m*l rule, face nappies and limits on big gatherings 

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

What are the skybet odds?

 

A middle ground "relaxation" instead of "removal" is a lot better than a delay just because the uneducated public can't handle the nuance of some rules relaxing vs all, as one of the press briefing articles suggested 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

I thought there was some kind of plateaux a few days back too … 

This is the past week up until Sunday. If you add Mon Tuesday to that it does appear to have plateaued. I bloody hope! ha

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

“A relaxation” to me doesn’t necessarily mean that the full on freedom day will go ahead.

 

I think you could well be looking at the rule of 6 being relaxed (if not removed entirely) but still WFH, 1m*l rule, face nappies and limits on big gatherings 

Those limits on big gatherings could be vaccine proof/testing though, which is actually a big relaxation considering they're currently not allowed apart from football it seems 

Edited June 8, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Havors]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

Those limits on big gatherings could be vaccine proof/testing though, which is actually a big relaxation considering they're currently not allowed apart from football it seems 

Ive just read there will be vaccine passports used at wembley for the euros.... still only a 25% capacity though. 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Ive just read there will be vaccine passports used at wembley for the euros.... still only a 25% capacity though. 

Initially … that increases throughout the tournament doesn’t it ? 

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Initially … that increases throughout the tournament doesn’t it ? 

Possibly. I think its said 25% for the groups. 

[JoeyT]

 

 

[steviewevie]

35 minutes ago, zahidf said:

No one seems to be panicking as much as the UK is in Europe

 

I think - like in the US - they're happy with a certain base level of Covid as they reopen their economies. They're not aiming for zero, they're asking "can we reopen our economies, and have a level of infections and hospitalisations we can deal with?"

And they're coming up with the answer "yes".

maybe we're leading the way again, like in the winter...

[philipsteak]

2 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

...think I've wandered into the wrong thread...

 

 

No you haven't

[efcfanwirral]

 

14 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

 

But if that trend continues that's fine. But obviously we have to assume the worst; which really means why bother trying to reopen now when this sort of thing was inevitable?

If we're talking about delay for 2-4 weeks with numbers like this, then surely we need to delay longer?

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

But if that trend continues that's fine. But obviously we have to assume the worst; which really means why bother trying to reopen now when this sort of thing was inevitable?

If we're talking about delay for 2-4 weeks with numbers like this, then surely we need to delay longer?

Look into the modelling on the impact of a short delay. Even in 2 weeks you can put a hell of a lot of vaccines in arms that really neuters the impact of the exit wave. 

[Toilet Duck]

5 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

 

No you haven't

That’s not an argument, that’s just contradiction!😁 (sorry, is this the 5 minute argument or the full half hour?)…

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

That’s not an argument, that’s just contradiction!😁 (sorry, is this the 5 minute argument or the full half hour?)…

this could take up several pages of this thread .... 🙂 

[stuartbert two hats]

46 minutes ago, Havors said:

I was expecting much more than 6k seeing as there is meant to be exponential growth??

Are we seeing the numbers plateau already?? We had 6044 on 3rd June... and its not gone higher since? 

Tuesday is usually inflated because of the delay over the weekend? 

Wishful thinking? 

 

3165 - 6048 in 7 days is exponential growth

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

this could take up several pages of this thread .... 🙂 

Par for the course these days! 😁

[Havors]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

3165 - 6048 in 7 days is exponential growth

Yes but 6026 - 6048 in 6 days is not. 

[Guest]

Case data doesn’t look good and hospitalisations aren’t ideal either. 

 

[Copperface]

The big 3500, another milestone, is imminent.

[steviewevie]

Isn't it through July and August when they're expecting cases to rise significantly?